Empire Lindy asked me to break down the 'Cats a bit for him for his article on CardinalEmpire.com. Here is the transcript (read the article linked to the title above):
CardinalEmpire: Am reading a bit about QB Josh Freeman and checked his box scores from the first couple of weekends. Is he really the pro prospect that folks are writing about? What do opposing defenses have to do to keep him in check? In other words, what does he do well and what does he struggle with?
Me: Simply put, yes. Josh is a pro prospect. He has the size and arm necessary to be a complete pro player. Two plays stand out in particular. Versus North Texas, Josh rolled out away from a defensive end that had beat the offensive tackle, and from the 40 yard line threw a rope to Brandon Banks, and hit Banks in stride for a touchdown. Versus Montana State, Josh hit Aubrey Quarles from the opposite side of the field and put it where only Quarles could catch, about 40 yards downfield again. Those are professional throws. The past two years, Josh would have trouble with his footwork and progressions, but this year he is looking for his receivers, going through his progressions, and make smart decisions. He has missed some open receivers, but generally college defenses are not going to confuse him. If he does not see an open receiver, he has the bulk and speed to take off running, though no one would mistake him for Vince Young. The best defense against Josh is to make him hurry his throws. He has had all day to throw the ball, and in years past that is where he will force things.
CardinalEmpire: Can you give us a little background on Brandon Banks? I have read he is an absolute blazer (4.28 40) and will surprise a lot of guys with his abilities for such a small player. Is his debut just a sign of things to come? How does KSU try to utilize him (slot receiver, on the edge and just go by the opposing DB?)? What other receivers will the Cards need to watch for?
Me: Brandon is very small at 5'7" and 142, but he has a burst of speed that is stunning--he is the fastest guy on the team and can accelerate in a hurry. He can also take a hit as he comes over the middle. Both are surprising for a guy that small. Against Montana State, Josh flicked a little dump off pass over the line of scrimmage and Brandon took off with an amazing burst and scored a touchdown, splitting the defensive backs. He has played mostly on the edge, and he has been utilized in crossing patterns, little dumps over the line of scrimmage, and screen passes. No one has tried to jam him at the line of scrimmage--everyone is afraid of his speed. Even with him being small, Josh has been able to hit him consistently. On the 30 yard touchdown pass mentioned above, it was a breakdown on the line and it went to a scramble drill, and Josh found him. All of that said, Brandon is not a starting receiver. He is behind Deon Murphy, another burner and last year's Big 12 offensive newcomer of the year. Deon had 57 or so catches last year for around 800 yards, but didn't play versus North Texas (aside from a few punt returns). Lamark Brown is coming into his own, and at 6'3" and 225 pounds, he's a load at wide receiver. Aubrey Quarles has outstanding hands and is very fast, though a middle size receiver at 5'11", he is very hard to bring down. Ernie Pierce is our "big receiver" at 6'4" and 210. Pierce is inconsistent catching the ball, however.
CardinalEmpire: Keithen Valentine and Logan Dold had pretty nice debuts for the Wildcats Saturday, but Valentine did have a fumble in the second series. Is a RBBC the approach we should expect when KSU rolls into Louisville in a couple of weeks? What does each guy bring to the table and why do Coach Prince and Coach Rahne go with the two-headed attack?
Me: The running game is a bit of a mystery, even after two games. Neither player has put up spectacular numbers and both have had their issues. Neither is an explosive guy and neither will make a defensive player miss. Both try and be patient, but sometimes don't wait for a play to develop. Valentine is a smaller player, and he tries to follow his blocks. He doesn't have the ability to cut back and make a defender miss and break a run for big yards. Dold is a bit more upright, less shifty (which isn't good), but somewhat more powerful. Neither player had division one experience; I think they are trying to keep the players fresh and find the hot hand. Valentine appears to be a better blocker, which is important to the passing game. Neither has caught many passes this year.
CardinalEmpire: The defense has been scolded a bit by Coach Prince in his press conferences, particularly the LB’s. They did give up 105 yards on the ground (124 if you take away Vizza’s lost yardage) against North Texas and 83 (121 if you take away a couple of TEAM runs). I am reading most was right up the gut. I haven’t read much about the unit, but I do know that leading returning tackler John Houlik was suspended for the first three games of the season. Still, Reggie Walker is back and should have provided some experience. Is this just a simple matter of Houlik missing from the lineup or is run support an issue with the K-State LB’s?
Me: No. Houlik is an undersized middle linebacker, and though he made tackles last year, too many of them were too far downfield. A lot of tackles is good at the line of scrimmage, a lot of tackles 6 and 7 yards downfield is not good. The first team defense did not allow a terribly huge amount of yards; KSU played a ton of kids even early on in both games. That said, there were some plays where the DL was beat or sucked in too tight and players were able to beat the linebackers, who also misplayed the play. Additionally, there have been plays that should have been tackled a couple yards ahead of where the tackle was made. A new depth chart came out today, and there have been more shakeups on the linebacker corps. Hansen Sekona takes over at Reggie's inside backer position and Reggie moves to the outside to back up Antwon Moore. Sekona is one of the infamous JuCo class, but played well in the spring. He will team up with Ulla Pomele on the inside to try and slow down the Cardinals rushing attack.
CardinalEmpire: The defense as a unit was largely lambasted and beaten in 2007, giving up 400 yards a game and nearly 31 points per contest. The pass D was a particular problem, giving up 264 yards every time out and a total of 27 TD’s, but K-State coaches have been quoted as being cautiously excited about the secondary in 2008. What gives Wildcat fans hope that the DB’s will be better this season? Who will lead this campaign for improvement?
Me: Last year, our best returning cornerback was suspended and so did not play. This year, number 4, Joshua Moore from Pompano Beach Ely High School, leads the way in the secondary. Moore has the ability to be a shut down type of corner and has played well in the first couple games. He has allowed some catches, but he keeps everything in front of him. Blair Irvin is our nickel back. Originally recruited and signed with LSU, he went and played minor league baseball for a few years and is now at KSU after a stint at junior college. He also has been solid. Those two additions at corner, along with the return of our best corner last year, Ray Cheatham, has the coaches excited. K-State will rotate three safeties, and Courtney Herndon was named National Defensive Player of the Week last week after blocking a punt, returning a fumble for a touchdown, having four tackles, and making an interception to stifle a drive. What's odd is that he is our 3rd best safety behind Chris Carney (captain) and Gary Chandler (Big 12 defensive newcomer of the year last year). The secondary is definitely a strength right now.
CardinalEmpire: A lot of preseason talk has focused on Ian Campbell and how he might return to his 2006 form by returning to defensive end. Can you talk a little about what Campbell might bring to the defense if he is back in his traditional role as a lineman.
Me: Campbell is best suited with his hand on the ground coming after the quarterback. A little small for the 3-4 K-State plays, he is always coming and coming hard. He is a max effort player. He is very quick off the snap and will create some havoc, especially if your OT doesn't have good feet. He will move around a lot--this week he is listed at starter on the RDE position, with true frosh Brandon Harold taking over the LDE position. Campbell has also lined up at DT this year--basically 3 DEs in a 4-3 defense. KSU has done some odd mixing and matching at times along the defensive line.
CardinalEmpire: Deon Murphy was one of the nation’s top return men in 2007, which should terrify Louisville fans and the poor special teams we saw this past weekend. Can you talk about Murphy’s abilities in the punting game and what Aubrey Quarles will bring to the kickoff return game this season?
Me: Murphy brings speed, speed, and more speed. He has a nice ability to read his blocks and get upfield. If Louisville can get him going sideways and not straight upfield, he will be easy to corral. However, once he starts going straight upfield, he has speed and the ability to cut and move. He can be very difficult to tackle in open space. Quarles hasn't returned many kicks, but he has had a couple nice returns where he just takes off and finds a crease. He's a very strong guy and difficult to bring down.
CardinalEmpire: What other strengths does this team bring to the game next week? Weaknesses?
Me: The other primary strength, which is something that Prince has emphasized, is the special teams. Already this year KSU has had a punt return almost go for a touchdown (Murphy was tackled at the 4), blocked two punts for touchdowns, blocked an extra point, and had two kick off returns go back past the 50 yard line (I think two). The biggest weakness is the running game, which isn't just the backs but also the offensive line. The offensive line is deep and experienced, but they just are not playing outstanding football. Louisville's defensive tackles should be able to be disruptive this game.
CardinalEmpire: Who else should we be aware of as a threat on either side of the ball?
Me: Brooks Rossman is a very good kicker. Look out for Jeron Mastrud, a very underrated tight end. He's not fast, but has a knack for getting open and has good hands. Last, Prince loves trick or gadget plays and misdirection. Look for a WR to throw a pass, end arounds, reverses, onside kicks when you least expect it, an unexpected fake punt, that sort of thing.
Sunday, September 14, 2008
Sagarin has KSU at 42
The 'Cats are working their way up the Sagarin ratings, coming in at number 42 (number 24 in the predictor or pure points ratings). KSU's opposition:
North Texas 154 (164 pure points)
Montana State 153 (169)
Louisville 52 (58)
Louisiana-Lafayette 132 (139)
Texas Tech 17 (21)
Texas A&M 55 (62)
Colorado 53 (55)
Oklahoma 4 (5)
Kansas 28 (22)
Missouri 31 (36)
Nebraska 34 (39)
Iowa State 68 (61)
North Texas 154 (164 pure points)
Montana State 153 (169)
Louisville 52 (58)
Louisiana-Lafayette 132 (139)
Texas Tech 17 (21)
Texas A&M 55 (62)
Colorado 53 (55)
Oklahoma 4 (5)
Kansas 28 (22)
Missouri 31 (36)
Nebraska 34 (39)
Iowa State 68 (61)
Yesterday's Beer
Four beers yesterday...
- Breckenridge 471 Imperial Small Batch IPA-a delicious IPA that has great balance. The hops are terrific and do not overwhelm the malt and other flavors.
- Duchesse de Bourgogne-a Flemish sour that tastes vaguely like balsamic vinegar. It's a beer that is quite unusual, and certainly not one that agrees with every palate.
- Blanche de Bruxelles-a Belgian wit, has terrific balance as well. Quite a delicious quaff.
- Tall Grass Wheat-a German style hefeweizen, tastes vaguely similar to Konig Ludwig.
Checking the NCAA Stats
- After yesterday's action in college football, Kansas State finds itself with the sixth ranked defense nationally. Louisville has the fourth ranked defense, after two good efforts against Kentucky and Tennessee Tech.
- Kansas State finds itself with the third ranked scoring offense nationally, trailing only Mizzou and Florida State.
- Check out the Big 12 Conference Report; Kansas State is competing well with their Big 12 brethren.
Blast from the (Recent) Past
Montana State played a close game against the Minnesota Golden Gophers before falling 35-23. Will C. Holden reports that the Bobcats game versus Minnesota was in doubt until the final minutes, in contrast to the 69-10 shellacking Montana State took in the Little Apple.
Meanwhile, the Mean Green of North Texas had a familiar game, losing to number 7 LSU 41-3 after losing to Kansas State two weeks ago 45-6. Check out the box score from the Kansas State-North Texas game and compare it to the box score from the LSU-Mean Green game.
Meanwhile, the Mean Green of North Texas had a familiar game, losing to number 7 LSU 41-3 after losing to Kansas State two weeks ago 45-6. Check out the box score from the Kansas State-North Texas game and compare it to the box score from the LSU-Mean Green game.
Louisville Depth Chart
The depth chart for the Louisville game is now available. There are some changes from the game versus Montana State.
On offense:
On defense:
On offense:
- Edward Prince is now backing up Alesana Alesana at left tackle.
- Penisini (Ben) Liu is backing up Nick Stringer at left tackle. It's good to have Liu back, after he injured his knee at the end of the spring game.
On defense:
- At left defensive end, true freshman Brandon Harold is listed at the top of the depth chart for the first time, and he is backed up by redshirt freshman Raphael Guidry. Formerly, junior Eric Childs was the starter at that spot. Childs has dropped to second team and now backs up senior Ian Campbell at right defensive end.
- At inside linebacker, junior Hansen Sekona is now starting, replacing senior Reggie Walker. Sekona is backed up by redshirt freshman walk-on Alex Hrebec.
- At outside linebacker, Walker now backs up senior Antwon Moore.
- Junior Courtney Herndon, who was awarded a national defensive player of the week award last week for his effort against Montana State, now is starting over 2007 Big 12 Defensive Newcomer of the year, senior Gary Chandler.
- Senior Ray Cheatham has recaptured his starting spot at cornerback over Blair Irvin.
Volleyball Team Sweeps Varney's Classic
K-State was led by outside hitter Rita Liliom with 18 kills and a .325 hitting percentage. For her effort throughout the weekend she was named the tournament MVP with 46 kills and averaged 4.60 kills per set. Coach Suzie Fritz said Liliom played a solid tournament but she was happy with how her team bounced back after dropping the second set to
“Game Two was a bit of a let down,” Fritz said. “Sometimes you say you don’t want to beat a team that bad in the first set because you’re afraid of losing intensity in the next set. After the second set, I like how we bounced back and played hard at the end of Game Four. I felt that was as hard as we’ve played on defense all year.”
Defensively, the No. 19 Wildcats held the Lady Flames (8-2) to just a .138 hitting percentage as sophomore libero Lauren Mathewson had 10 digs. Leslie Townsend added 10 digs as well, and Liliom contributed 13 digs for another double-double. Mathewson also earned all-tournament team recognition for her performance on the weekend.
Two more players joined Liliom with at least 10 kills and Megan Farr and Kelsey Chipman each had 10 in the win. Farr had just one attack error and hit .643 on her way to the all-tournament team as well.
In the second set K-State dropped, neither team put together a long rally as the Wildcats and Flames battled with 16 ties and four lead changes before Liberty edged out the ‘Cats 25-22. K-State responded by winning another see-saw battle in the third set and closing the door strongly with a 25-12 victory in the fourth set.
The match also marks the end of one of the nation’s longest streaks. Saturday night marked the first time in 297 matches the Wildcats did not register a service ace. The streak dates back to November 13, 1998, in a 3-1 win over
“One of the identities of a K-State team is we want to be known as an aggressive serving team,” Fritz said. “I didn’t even know about the streak until someone just told me. It’s nice, but I’d rather win matches. As long as we’re winning matches, I’m happy.”
The Wildcats begin the next phase of their schedule when they host No. 2 Nebraska on Wednesday at 7 p.m. in Ahearn Field House. Fans are encouraged to help “Keep the Red Out” and fill the stands. Following the match, fans can stick around to watch the K-State vs.
Varney’s
Rita Liliom,
Megan Farr,
Lauren Mathewson,
Shannon Aschoff,
Chelaine McCarty,
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Leon Patton Rumor
Ok, people have been begging to know the Leon Patton rumor, and the reason why he is suspended and not playing this year. Everyone knows about the Wal-Mart and parking ticket issue, and those have been taken care of.
Here is the current rumor--and I stress, this is a RUMOR. I have seen absolutely no factual basis for this rumor, I am not presenting it as truth or fact. I have no reason to believe it is true. In fact, I have heard several different versions of the rumor.
Here is the rumor, phrased as a question as I asked friends about it in an e-mail on August 6.
ok I have heard a rumor from someone about patton.
I have heard that he is being investigated for the death of an infant, who died allegedly from shaken baby syndrome. And yes, I was told that it was patton's kid that died.
does anyone know if he has a kid? Whether a child passed away? I have a hard time believing this would fly under the news radar.
if anyone can dispell the rumor I would appreciate it.
As you can tell, I was (an am) in disbelief, because I think some news source would have reported (a) the death of an infant and (b) that it was the child of a major college football player. Murders, whether shaken baby syndrome or abandonment of a baby, are always news fodder.
That said, I have also heard another version of the rumor:
Patton is a person of interest in the death of an infant, but he has being investigated for domestic violence. The only reason nothing has surfaced in the media, is the investigation is still on-going.
In this version of the rumor as it was explained to me, Patton's girlfriend was the actual perpetrator, and after Patton found out there was a domestic violence incident.
In my best impression of Snopes, I have several questions about these rumors.
First, I don't know that Leon has a child. Second, I don't know that Leon has a girlfriend. Third, I don't know whether Leon's girlfriend had a child, whether Leon's or not. Fourth, I don't know that a child associated with Leon died. Fifth, I don't know that anyone associated with Leon suffered any physical abuse.
Mostly, though, I find it hard to believe that even if an investigation is ongoing, that the media has not reported the death of an infant and that the death is being investigated. I have no idea if the alleged death occurred in Manhattan or Leon's hometown of Dallas. That said, whether it happened in Manhattan or Dallas, deaths are matters of public record and would be available. No media source that I am aware of (and I used my google-fu skills) has reported the death of an infant associated with Leon.
For all I know, Leon is deep in Prince's doghouse and this is all rumor and innuendo and has absolutely no basis in fact. Prince has a tendency to not play players if they do all sorts of things; it does not have to be anything criminal. For example, Xzavier Stewart hasn't been playing and he hasn't gotten so much as a parking ticket. I also find this hard to believe since Leon is still listed on KSU's roster. I would think that if it were true or there was a substantial basis in fact, he have been dismissed from the team completely.
There, now you have read the rumor. All I ask is for everyone to consider that it is a rumor, and so if you hear someone that KNOWS Leon did something wrong, they are full of crap. If anyone KNEW Leon was associated with a child that died and he was implicated, he would have been arrested. The only thing that people KNOW are the rumors. That's it.
Here is the current rumor--and I stress, this is a RUMOR. I have seen absolutely no factual basis for this rumor, I am not presenting it as truth or fact. I have no reason to believe it is true. In fact, I have heard several different versions of the rumor.
Here is the rumor, phrased as a question as I asked friends about it in an e-mail on August 6.
ok I have heard a rumor from someone about patton.
I have heard that he is being investigated for the death of an infant, who died allegedly from shaken baby syndrome. And yes, I was told that it was patton's kid that died.
does anyone know if he has a kid? Whether a child passed away? I have a hard time believing this would fly under the news radar.
if anyone can dispell the rumor I would appreciate it.
As you can tell, I was (an am) in disbelief, because I think some news source would have reported (a) the death of an infant and (b) that it was the child of a major college football player. Murders, whether shaken baby syndrome or abandonment of a baby, are always news fodder.
That said, I have also heard another version of the rumor:
Patton is a person of interest in the death of an infant, but he has being investigated for domestic violence. The only reason nothing has surfaced in the media, is the investigation is still on-going.
In this version of the rumor as it was explained to me, Patton's girlfriend was the actual perpetrator, and after Patton found out there was a domestic violence incident.
In my best impression of Snopes, I have several questions about these rumors.
First, I don't know that Leon has a child. Second, I don't know that Leon has a girlfriend. Third, I don't know whether Leon's girlfriend had a child, whether Leon's or not. Fourth, I don't know that a child associated with Leon died. Fifth, I don't know that anyone associated with Leon suffered any physical abuse.
Mostly, though, I find it hard to believe that even if an investigation is ongoing, that the media has not reported the death of an infant and that the death is being investigated. I have no idea if the alleged death occurred in Manhattan or Leon's hometown of Dallas. That said, whether it happened in Manhattan or Dallas, deaths are matters of public record and would be available. No media source that I am aware of (and I used my google-fu skills) has reported the death of an infant associated with Leon.
For all I know, Leon is deep in Prince's doghouse and this is all rumor and innuendo and has absolutely no basis in fact. Prince has a tendency to not play players if they do all sorts of things; it does not have to be anything criminal. For example, Xzavier Stewart hasn't been playing and he hasn't gotten so much as a parking ticket. I also find this hard to believe since Leon is still listed on KSU's roster. I would think that if it were true or there was a substantial basis in fact, he have been dismissed from the team completely.
There, now you have read the rumor. All I ask is for everyone to consider that it is a rumor, and so if you hear someone that KNOWS Leon did something wrong, they are full of crap. If anyone KNEW Leon was associated with a child that died and he was implicated, he would have been arrested. The only thing that people KNOW are the rumors. That's it.
Friday, November 02, 2007
Week 10 - Big 12 Rankings and Predictions
As we move into the home stretch with three or four games to go, here is how the Big 12 stacks up (last week) (overall record/Big 12 record):
1. Missouri (1) (7-1/3-1). Though Missouri had a bit of a hiccup against Iowa State last week, winning by only 14, Missouri still has the best team in the Big 12, at least as of now. This week will be telling though, as Missouri lost all-conference caliber safety Cornelius "Pig" Brown to injury. Missouri's defense has issues enough without their leader being gone for the season.
2. Kansas (2) (8-0/4-0). Kansas has impressively come through and won three road games this season, the most recent victory at Kyle Field, taking down Texas A&M. KU is not flashy, but rather is assignment sound and methodical.
3. Oklahoma (3) (7-1/3-1). After an off week, Oklahoma will be prepared to make Dennis Franchione and Texas A&M pay for a snide remark about OU's pay for play scandal.
4. Kansas State (4) (5-3) (3-2). Kansas State took the first half off versus Baylor, the won going away 51-13. Kansas State has the conference's most prolific offense in Big 12 play.
5. Oklahoma State (6) (5-3/3-1). Oklahoma State had the weekend off and looks to get a win versus Texas this week.
6. Texas (5) (7-2/3-2). The Longhorns looked to be an upset victim for the second time at home this season, trailing Nebraska for much of the day before erupting in the 4th quarter. Jamal Charles led the way with a record setting 216 yards in that quarter to lead Texas to victory.
7. Colorado (9) (5-4/3-2). The Buffaloes pulled off the upset in Lubbock, taking down the Red Raiders while intercepting Graham Harrell four times. Colorado finishes the season 3-0 versus the vaunted Big 12 South.
8. Texas Tech (7) (6-3/2-3). Texas Tech suffers another meltdown, this time versus Colorado. Once again, when faced with conference play, the Red Raiders show they are more pretender than contender.
9. Texas A&M (8) (6-3/3-2). A&M is controlled by the disciplined Jayhawks. The Aggies will not win again this season.
10. Nebraska (10) (4-5/1-4). The Cornhuskers made a valient effort versus Texas, but are mired in 10th place and are likely to stay there. Say goodbye, Bill Callahan.
11. Iowa State (11) (1-8/0-5). Bonus points for playing Missouri within 14. The Bataan Death March continues with Kansas State invading Ames this weekend. It might be ISU's last chance for victory this season.
12. Baylor (12) (3-6/0-5). KSU played awful versus Baylor in the first half, yet led 16-6 and ended up crushing the Bears 51-13. Not good.
1. Missouri (1) (7-1/3-1). Though Missouri had a bit of a hiccup against Iowa State last week, winning by only 14, Missouri still has the best team in the Big 12, at least as of now. This week will be telling though, as Missouri lost all-conference caliber safety Cornelius "Pig" Brown to injury. Missouri's defense has issues enough without their leader being gone for the season.
2. Kansas (2) (8-0/4-0). Kansas has impressively come through and won three road games this season, the most recent victory at Kyle Field, taking down Texas A&M. KU is not flashy, but rather is assignment sound and methodical.
3. Oklahoma (3) (7-1/3-1). After an off week, Oklahoma will be prepared to make Dennis Franchione and Texas A&M pay for a snide remark about OU's pay for play scandal.
4. Kansas State (4) (5-3) (3-2). Kansas State took the first half off versus Baylor, the won going away 51-13. Kansas State has the conference's most prolific offense in Big 12 play.
5. Oklahoma State (6) (5-3/3-1). Oklahoma State had the weekend off and looks to get a win versus Texas this week.
6. Texas (5) (7-2/3-2). The Longhorns looked to be an upset victim for the second time at home this season, trailing Nebraska for much of the day before erupting in the 4th quarter. Jamal Charles led the way with a record setting 216 yards in that quarter to lead Texas to victory.
7. Colorado (9) (5-4/3-2). The Buffaloes pulled off the upset in Lubbock, taking down the Red Raiders while intercepting Graham Harrell four times. Colorado finishes the season 3-0 versus the vaunted Big 12 South.
8. Texas Tech (7) (6-3/2-3). Texas Tech suffers another meltdown, this time versus Colorado. Once again, when faced with conference play, the Red Raiders show they are more pretender than contender.
9. Texas A&M (8) (6-3/3-2). A&M is controlled by the disciplined Jayhawks. The Aggies will not win again this season.
10. Nebraska (10) (4-5/1-4). The Cornhuskers made a valient effort versus Texas, but are mired in 10th place and are likely to stay there. Say goodbye, Bill Callahan.
11. Iowa State (11) (1-8/0-5). Bonus points for playing Missouri within 14. The Bataan Death March continues with Kansas State invading Ames this weekend. It might be ISU's last chance for victory this season.
12. Baylor (12) (3-6/0-5). KSU played awful versus Baylor in the first half, yet led 16-6 and ended up crushing the Bears 51-13. Not good.
Predictions
(last week 3-2 straight up, 2-3 ATS)
Nebraska at Kansas (-20). That almost seems like it must be a misprint, but it isn't. Kansas is perfect versus the spread this year, and Nebraska is awful against the spread. It looks like this week with Nebraska QB Sam Keller out, people have jumped on the Jayhawk bandwagon. Don't count me in. Now, don't get me wrong, I think KU will win, but not by that much. Every team with approximately equal talent, KU has played close this year and won. This game will be no different.
Kansas State at Iowa State (+15.5). Iowa State has a lot of pride and are starting to buy into Gene Chizik's system. For the second home game in a row, Iowa State as a heavy underdog plays the visiting team close but loses.
Missouri at Colorado (+3.5). Colorado played KU tough and beat Oklahoma at home. The team has steadily improved throughout the year, and Missouri will sorely miss Pig Brown. In a relatively high scoring affair, Colorado gets a late turnover to seal the victory.
Texas A&M at Oklahoma (-21). Texas A&M couldn't run versus Miami (FL), Texas Tech, or Kansas. They won't be able to run versus OU either. Bob Stoops is a bit angry and beats the Aggies soundly.
Texas at Oklahoma State (+3). The Cowboys had a week to prepare, and Texas has been overrated all year. OSU finally gets a win in the series.
Texas Tech at Baylor (+20.5). Baylor is awful. Texas Tech isn't very good. Baylor doesn't get turnovers, so they won't have that advantage. The Bears get rolled.
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
It's Cyclone Week
Kansas State (5-3) takes on a 1-8 Iowa State squad this Saturday at 11:30 AM at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Iowa. The Wildcats, 1-2 in road games this year, attempt to win their second versus a Cyclone squad that is searching for their second home victory of the year. Kansas State is favored by 14 points.
Recent trends: In their past 33 games, Kansas State is 25-8 versus the spread against teams with losing records. On ther other hand, the home team is 7-3 versus the spread in the last 10 meetings and Iowa State is 9-2 versus the spread in their last 11 games on grass.
Iowa State has had difficulty on both sides of the ball this year, trying to understand what new head coach Gene Chizik wants them to do. On offense, Iowa State is nationally ranked 91st running the ball (127.72 yards per game), 81st passing the ball (204.44 yards per game), and 99th in total offense (332.22 yards per game). The Cyclones scoring offense is among the nation's worst, as they score a meager 16.56 points per game, which is ranked 116th out of 119 teams. On defense, Iowa State is a little better. The rushing defense is ranked 42nd (131.78 yards per game), pass defense is ranked 74th (232.00 yards per game) and is overall ranked 49th (363.78 yards per game). Iowa State, though, gives up 32 points per game, which ranks 93rd.
In their past two games, a loss at home 17-7 to Oklahoma and a road loss 42-28 to Missouri, ISU has shown a bit more spark. Against Missouri, senior quarterback Bret Meyer was 33/47/0 for 237 yards and one touchdown. The Cyclones were able to get their running game going, with freshman Alexander Robinson taking 21 carries for 149 yards and a touchdown versus the Tigers. The Cyclones controlled time of possession 38:22 to 21:38, converted 11 of 20 third downs, and two of three fourth downs. ISU also outgained the Tigers 389 yards to 366. Iowa State exhibited the ability to play with a second top ten team, holding Missouri to roughly 110 yards less than their seaso average.
Against Oklahoma, Iowa State held a 7-0 halftime lead, and had they been able to kick field goals, ISU might have been able to extend that lead further. Iowa State played solid defense, holding Oklahoma to 316 yards of total offense, some 130 yards below their season average.
Iowa State, since a 56-3 drubbing at the hands of Texas, has played very well in losing to two top ten teams. I expect nothing different this weekend, with Kansas State winning a hard fought battle that goes to the end.
Recent trends: In their past 33 games, Kansas State is 25-8 versus the spread against teams with losing records. On ther other hand, the home team is 7-3 versus the spread in the last 10 meetings and Iowa State is 9-2 versus the spread in their last 11 games on grass.
Iowa State has had difficulty on both sides of the ball this year, trying to understand what new head coach Gene Chizik wants them to do. On offense, Iowa State is nationally ranked 91st running the ball (127.72 yards per game), 81st passing the ball (204.44 yards per game), and 99th in total offense (332.22 yards per game). The Cyclones scoring offense is among the nation's worst, as they score a meager 16.56 points per game, which is ranked 116th out of 119 teams. On defense, Iowa State is a little better. The rushing defense is ranked 42nd (131.78 yards per game), pass defense is ranked 74th (232.00 yards per game) and is overall ranked 49th (363.78 yards per game). Iowa State, though, gives up 32 points per game, which ranks 93rd.
In their past two games, a loss at home 17-7 to Oklahoma and a road loss 42-28 to Missouri, ISU has shown a bit more spark. Against Missouri, senior quarterback Bret Meyer was 33/47/0 for 237 yards and one touchdown. The Cyclones were able to get their running game going, with freshman Alexander Robinson taking 21 carries for 149 yards and a touchdown versus the Tigers. The Cyclones controlled time of possession 38:22 to 21:38, converted 11 of 20 third downs, and two of three fourth downs. ISU also outgained the Tigers 389 yards to 366. Iowa State exhibited the ability to play with a second top ten team, holding Missouri to roughly 110 yards less than their seaso average.
Against Oklahoma, Iowa State held a 7-0 halftime lead, and had they been able to kick field goals, ISU might have been able to extend that lead further. Iowa State played solid defense, holding Oklahoma to 316 yards of total offense, some 130 yards below their season average.
Iowa State, since a 56-3 drubbing at the hands of Texas, has played very well in losing to two top ten teams. I expect nothing different this weekend, with Kansas State winning a hard fought battle that goes to the end.
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
Midweek Musings
Gopowercat.com's very own moped stalker suggested today that Kansas State quarterback Josh Freeman is better on the road than at home. Well, let's test that hypothesis. KSU has played three road games (Auburn, Texas, Oklahoma State) and five home games (San Jose State, Missouri State, Kansas, Colorado, Baylor).
Home: 183 attempts, 119 completions, 6 interceptions, 65.0 completion percentage, 1,325 yards or 265 yards per game, 7 touchdowns, and has been sacked twice for 8 yards. His passer efficiency rating is 131.91 at home. You too can calculate passer efficiency at http://football.stassen.com/pass-eff/.
Road: 146 attempts, 90 completions, 2 interceptions, 61.6 completion percentage, 849 yards or 283 yards per game, 4 touchdowns, and has been sacked 4 times for 2 yards. His passer efficiency rating is 116.79 on the road.
I don't know what to make of the statistics, but Freeman appears to be playing pretty well both at home and on the road--though his passer efficiency rating is fairly marginal. His overall efficiency rating of 125.2 ranks 68th in the nation. 116.79 would rank 86th and 131.91 would rank 49th.
At the end of the day, I know that Josh had a simply awful first half versus Baylor, but he still ended the day 22/33/1 for 247 yards and three touchdowns. His efficiency rating? A cool 153.5. Not bad for having such a bad first half the coaches wouldn't let him throw.
Another gopowercat.com user, whom I cannot remember, came up with this nugget, or at least a similar version to this nugget: Jordy Nelson has 5 punt returns for 264 yards and 2 touchdowns. That's a nice little punt return average of 52.8 yards per punt return. WOW! Of course, Nelson doesn't qualify to be the national leader because he hasn't returned enough punts. The "other" KSU punt returner, Deon Murphy, does qualify for national rankings as he has returned 20 punts for 344 yards, a nifty 17.2 yards per return. Murphy ranks fifth in the nation and first in the Big 12. But what about Jordy? How many punt returns would he have to have to qualify for national recognition? A player has to have a minimum of 1.2 punt returns per game to qualify. Jordy would have to have 9.6 (ok, fine, 10) returns to qualify for national honors. If he had five additional returns of zero yards, his punt return average would be 26.4 yards per return, and then he would qualify for national honors. Oh, and his national rank? Number one. The current number one, Leodis McKelvin from Troy, averages 21.18 yards per punt return. So Nelson, without gaining another yard, would still be number one by over five yards per return. That too deserves a WOW!
Everything about Jordy Nelson deserves a wow, though. Not only is he a stellar punt returner and receiver, he also is 2 for 3 passing the ball for 45 yards and 2 touchdowns, with a passer efficiency rating of 412.67. Not bad for a walk-on from Riley, Kansas.
On the other side of the ball, teams have scored 28 times against KSU's defense (and one touchdown on special teams and the opposing team's defense scored one touchdown) in 120 drives (the number derived from page 24 of the Iowa State game notes provided by KSU Sports Information). Opposing teams have scored 19 touchdowns on drives and nine field goals.
That's 23.3 percent of the time, when the other team gets the ball, they score. 15.8 percent of all drives end in touchdowns. 7.5 percent of all drives end in field goals.
Twenty-nine times, opposing offenses have gone three and out, which is 24.2 percent of the time. Twenty-two times (16 interceptions and six fumble recoveries), KSU has forced a turnover (18.3 percent of the time).
Five of the scoring drives took between one and five plays. Nineteen of the scoring drives took between six and ten plays. Four scoring drives went for eleven plays or more.
Kansas State's defense has also been burned by the big play. The Wildcats have allowed 36 plays of 20 or more yards this season (including four of 40 or more yards). The breakdown:
Auburn, four plays of 20 or more yards, including one of 55 yards.
San Jose State, three plays of 20 or more yards.
Missouri State, three plays of 20 or more yards.
Texas, three plays of 20 or more yards.
Kansas, five plays of 20 or more yards.
Colorado, nine plays of 20 or more yards, including two of 40 yards.
Oklahoma State, four plays of 20 or more yards.
Baylor, five plays of 20 or more yards, including one for 52 yards.
Several other plays have gone for big yards as well, including a fumble return for a touchdown versus Auburn (34 yards), an interception return versus Auburn (49 yards), a punt return versus Auburn (57 yards), and a 98 yard kick-off return for a touchdown versus Oklahoma State.
By the way, by comparison, Kansas State has 9 fewer plays from scrimmage for 20 or more yards than their competition, a mere 27 (Auburn 3, San Jose State 3, Missouri State 3, Texas 1, Kansas 2, Colorado 7, Oklahoma State 2, Baylor 6).
Home: 183 attempts, 119 completions, 6 interceptions, 65.0 completion percentage, 1,325 yards or 265 yards per game, 7 touchdowns, and has been sacked twice for 8 yards. His passer efficiency rating is 131.91 at home. You too can calculate passer efficiency at http://football.stassen.com/pass-eff/.
Road: 146 attempts, 90 completions, 2 interceptions, 61.6 completion percentage, 849 yards or 283 yards per game, 4 touchdowns, and has been sacked 4 times for 2 yards. His passer efficiency rating is 116.79 on the road.
I don't know what to make of the statistics, but Freeman appears to be playing pretty well both at home and on the road--though his passer efficiency rating is fairly marginal. His overall efficiency rating of 125.2 ranks 68th in the nation. 116.79 would rank 86th and 131.91 would rank 49th.
At the end of the day, I know that Josh had a simply awful first half versus Baylor, but he still ended the day 22/33/1 for 247 yards and three touchdowns. His efficiency rating? A cool 153.5. Not bad for having such a bad first half the coaches wouldn't let him throw.
Another gopowercat.com user, whom I cannot remember, came up with this nugget, or at least a similar version to this nugget: Jordy Nelson has 5 punt returns for 264 yards and 2 touchdowns. That's a nice little punt return average of 52.8 yards per punt return. WOW! Of course, Nelson doesn't qualify to be the national leader because he hasn't returned enough punts. The "other" KSU punt returner, Deon Murphy, does qualify for national rankings as he has returned 20 punts for 344 yards, a nifty 17.2 yards per return. Murphy ranks fifth in the nation and first in the Big 12. But what about Jordy? How many punt returns would he have to have to qualify for national recognition? A player has to have a minimum of 1.2 punt returns per game to qualify. Jordy would have to have 9.6 (ok, fine, 10) returns to qualify for national honors. If he had five additional returns of zero yards, his punt return average would be 26.4 yards per return, and then he would qualify for national honors. Oh, and his national rank? Number one. The current number one, Leodis McKelvin from Troy, averages 21.18 yards per punt return. So Nelson, without gaining another yard, would still be number one by over five yards per return. That too deserves a WOW!
Everything about Jordy Nelson deserves a wow, though. Not only is he a stellar punt returner and receiver, he also is 2 for 3 passing the ball for 45 yards and 2 touchdowns, with a passer efficiency rating of 412.67. Not bad for a walk-on from Riley, Kansas.
On the other side of the ball, teams have scored 28 times against KSU's defense (and one touchdown on special teams and the opposing team's defense scored one touchdown) in 120 drives (the number derived from page 24 of the Iowa State game notes provided by KSU Sports Information). Opposing teams have scored 19 touchdowns on drives and nine field goals.
That's 23.3 percent of the time, when the other team gets the ball, they score. 15.8 percent of all drives end in touchdowns. 7.5 percent of all drives end in field goals.
Twenty-nine times, opposing offenses have gone three and out, which is 24.2 percent of the time. Twenty-two times (16 interceptions and six fumble recoveries), KSU has forced a turnover (18.3 percent of the time).
Five of the scoring drives took between one and five plays. Nineteen of the scoring drives took between six and ten plays. Four scoring drives went for eleven plays or more.
Kansas State's defense has also been burned by the big play. The Wildcats have allowed 36 plays of 20 or more yards this season (including four of 40 or more yards). The breakdown:
Auburn, four plays of 20 or more yards, including one of 55 yards.
San Jose State, three plays of 20 or more yards.
Missouri State, three plays of 20 or more yards.
Texas, three plays of 20 or more yards.
Kansas, five plays of 20 or more yards.
Colorado, nine plays of 20 or more yards, including two of 40 yards.
Oklahoma State, four plays of 20 or more yards.
Baylor, five plays of 20 or more yards, including one for 52 yards.
Several other plays have gone for big yards as well, including a fumble return for a touchdown versus Auburn (34 yards), an interception return versus Auburn (49 yards), a punt return versus Auburn (57 yards), and a 98 yard kick-off return for a touchdown versus Oklahoma State.
By the way, by comparison, Kansas State has 9 fewer plays from scrimmage for 20 or more yards than their competition, a mere 27 (Auburn 3, San Jose State 3, Missouri State 3, Texas 1, Kansas 2, Colorado 7, Oklahoma State 2, Baylor 6).
Monday, October 29, 2007
The Weekend Rewind
Kansas State 51 Baylor 13On a beautiful Saturday for tailgating, the Baylor Bears visited Kansas State for homecoming. The day started a bit chilly, but soon the parking lots filled up, flags were raised, the grills were lit, and the festivities began. Though the game was a 2:35 start, it was evident the crowd was not fired up for the game and expected an easy victory. Kansas State managed to gain four Baylor turnovers in the first half and held Baylor to four three and outs. A recipe for a huge day, right? Wrong. Though Kansas State had every advantage in the first half, the 'Cats could only manage a 16-6 lead--the football was not nearly as beautiful as the weather. Kansas State coach Ron Prince put it best when he said, "I think that was the worst half of football I have ever been associated with." So what did he say at halftime to spur on the troops? “I can’t repeat what I said,” Prince said. “It’s not appropriate. I was probably a little bit out of line.” Well, whatever he 
said, it worked, as Kansas State scored 21 points in the first nine minutes of the third quarter to put the game away, as Kansas State wins 51-13. Kansas State forced seven turnovers for the day, and the defense controlled the Baylor running game holding the Bears to 13 yards on 26 carries. On offense, Leon Patton led KSU in rushing with 113 yards on 17 carries. Kansas State jump started their rushing game, gaining 206 yards on a season high 46 carries. Josh Freeman, who had a horrible first half where he threw one interception but could have had as many as four, ended the day with 247 yards passing and three touchdowns. Perhaps the most surprising statistic of 
the day? Freeman rushing the ball 10 times for 19 yards, including several option plays. Simply bizarre! The big star of the game, of course, was Jordy Nelson. Jordy set a season season reception record by making his 76th catch of the season, surpassing the mark set by Darnell McDonald in 1998. On top of that, Jordy also passed 1,000 yards for the season, and he is well on his way to setting a single season record for yards as well. He also returned a punt 92 yards for a touchdown, his second punt return for a touchdown this year. Perhaps the most spectacular play he made though, was a one handed running grab of a pass on third down and seven yards to go. That does not seem so spectacular until you realize the ball was behind him. That should be an impossible catch to make. The People's Champ made it look routine and took the little crossing route 31 yards for a first down. Up next, Iowa State.
said, it worked, as Kansas State scored 21 points in the first nine minutes of the third quarter to put the game away, as Kansas State wins 51-13. Kansas State forced seven turnovers for the day, and the defense controlled the Baylor running game holding the Bears to 13 yards on 26 carries. On offense, Leon Patton led KSU in rushing with 113 yards on 17 carries. Kansas State jump started their rushing game, gaining 206 yards on a season high 46 carries. Josh Freeman, who had a horrible first half where he threw one interception but could have had as many as four, ended the day with 247 yards passing and three touchdowns. Perhaps the most surprising statistic of the day? Freeman rushing the ball 10 times for 19 yards, including several option plays. Simply bizarre! The big star of the game, of course, was Jordy Nelson. Jordy set a season season reception record by making his 76th catch of the season, surpassing the mark set by Darnell McDonald in 1998. On top of that, Jordy also passed 1,000 yards for the season, and he is well on his way to setting a single season record for yards as well. He also returned a punt 92 yards for a touchdown, his second punt return for a touchdown this year. Perhaps the most spectacular play he made though, was a one handed running grab of a pass on third down and seven yards to go. That does not seem so spectacular until you realize the ball was behind him. That should be an impossible catch to make. The People's Champ made it look routine and took the little crossing route 31 yards for a first down. Up next, Iowa State.Missouri 42 Iowa State 28 The Cyclones lose another tough game, this time on the road to the Missouri Tigers. Surprisingly, Iowa State outgained Missouri, but still couldn't find a way to win. Most teams do not go without a win during conference play. Iowa State could be dangerous for Kansas State this weekend.
Colorado 31 Texas Tech 26 The story of the game is quarterback Graham Harrell, who entering the Missouri game a week ago had three interceptions for the season. For the second week in a row, Harrell threw four interceptions. That's a recipe for disaster, and Texas Tech fell to Colorado for the second year in a row.
Kansas 19 Texas A&M 11 The Jayhawks moved to 8-0 on the season, exploding for 19 unanswered points in the second half in the defensive battle. KU has now won more than two Big 12 road games for the first time and won in a Texas city other than Waco for the first time (in Big 12 play). KU continues to play solid defense and fundamental football.
Texas 28 Nebraska 25 Nebraska played a good football for three quarters, then allowed Jamal Charles to rush for 216 yards in the fourth quarter. That's shocking.
Friday, October 26, 2007
Week 9-Big 12 Rankings and Predictions
Approximately halfway through the Big 12 season, things are becoming much clearer. Here is how the teams stack up (last week in parentheses) (overall record/Big 12 record):
1. Missouri (3) (6-1/2-1). Missouri dominated Texas Tech last weekend, holding the nation's number one scoring offense to 10 points. Missouri's defense has stepped up week after week and are becoming a force unto their own. If Missouri has a defense to compliment their outstanding offense, watch out. The Tigers can give anyone in the nation trouble on a neutral field.
2. Kansas (2) (7-0/3-0). Kansas did not come close to dominating the Buffaloes at Colorado. Kansas managed to play solid, assignment sound defense and made just enough plays to beat Colorado. CU is anything but a perfect team though. Kansas, while fundamentally a good football team, simply doesn't have the playmakers to survive undefeated much longer.
3. Oklahoma (1) (7-1/3-1). Oklahoma went to Iowa State and pulled out a 17-7 win in a game that was much closer than the final score indicates. Apparently OU simply is not a good road team; OU lost their first Big 12 road game at Colorado, and if the Cyclones had a half decent place kicker, OU might have been in a dogfight until the end versus the pathetic Iowa State unit. Oklahoma was anything but impressive.
4. Kansas State (4) (4-3/2-2). Kansas State is not perfect and needs to have turnovers and make special teams plays to win and win easily--but still are an improving team. Though the Wildcats lost to the Cowboys, every break went OSU's way. Kansas State has an improving offense, their best since 2002. If the defense learns to tackle and stop the run, K-State could beat anyone. I expect the 'Cats to win the next two games fairly easily.
5. Texas (6) (6-2/2-2). Texas did not have a particularly good showing versus Baylor. However, the Longhorns still managed to win by 21 in Waco. Texas continues their march through the dregs of the Big 12 versus Nebraska this week.
6. Oklahoma State (7) (5-3/3-1). The Cowboys have all kinds of dangerous weapons; however, OSU does not have much of a defense. Any team with those weapons at their disposal is a dangerous team however. That said, OSU was lucky to get two wins this year, using a large dose of luck to beat KSU and Texas Tech.
7. Texas Tech (5) (6-2/2-2). Texas Tech looked simply awful versus Missouri. Missouri confused and battered Texas Tech, which is what happens when you play superior teams on the road. Tech simply does not have th defensive talent or offensive balance to compete in the Big 12.
8. Texas A&M (9) (6-2/3-1). Texas A&M was the latest beneficiary of Nebraska's largesse. The Kansas game could be their last chance to win this year.
9. Colorado (8) (4-4/2-2). Better than last year, but still not good. Had an opportunity to beat Kansas but didn't take it.
10. Nebraska (10) (4-4/1-3). Defense is among the worst in the country. Offense is trying to get there.
11. Iowa State (12) (1-7/0-4). Bonus points for playing OU within 10.
12. Baylor (11) (3-5/0-4). They might be better than Nebraska, but for now, they are entrenched at 12.
1. Missouri (3) (6-1/2-1). Missouri dominated Texas Tech last weekend, holding the nation's number one scoring offense to 10 points. Missouri's defense has stepped up week after week and are becoming a force unto their own. If Missouri has a defense to compliment their outstanding offense, watch out. The Tigers can give anyone in the nation trouble on a neutral field.
2. Kansas (2) (7-0/3-0). Kansas did not come close to dominating the Buffaloes at Colorado. Kansas managed to play solid, assignment sound defense and made just enough plays to beat Colorado. CU is anything but a perfect team though. Kansas, while fundamentally a good football team, simply doesn't have the playmakers to survive undefeated much longer.
3. Oklahoma (1) (7-1/3-1). Oklahoma went to Iowa State and pulled out a 17-7 win in a game that was much closer than the final score indicates. Apparently OU simply is not a good road team; OU lost their first Big 12 road game at Colorado, and if the Cyclones had a half decent place kicker, OU might have been in a dogfight until the end versus the pathetic Iowa State unit. Oklahoma was anything but impressive.
4. Kansas State (4) (4-3/2-2). Kansas State is not perfect and needs to have turnovers and make special teams plays to win and win easily--but still are an improving team. Though the Wildcats lost to the Cowboys, every break went OSU's way. Kansas State has an improving offense, their best since 2002. If the defense learns to tackle and stop the run, K-State could beat anyone. I expect the 'Cats to win the next two games fairly easily.
5. Texas (6) (6-2/2-2). Texas did not have a particularly good showing versus Baylor. However, the Longhorns still managed to win by 21 in Waco. Texas continues their march through the dregs of the Big 12 versus Nebraska this week.
6. Oklahoma State (7) (5-3/3-1). The Cowboys have all kinds of dangerous weapons; however, OSU does not have much of a defense. Any team with those weapons at their disposal is a dangerous team however. That said, OSU was lucky to get two wins this year, using a large dose of luck to beat KSU and Texas Tech.
7. Texas Tech (5) (6-2/2-2). Texas Tech looked simply awful versus Missouri. Missouri confused and battered Texas Tech, which is what happens when you play superior teams on the road. Tech simply does not have th defensive talent or offensive balance to compete in the Big 12.
8. Texas A&M (9) (6-2/3-1). Texas A&M was the latest beneficiary of Nebraska's largesse. The Kansas game could be their last chance to win this year.
9. Colorado (8) (4-4/2-2). Better than last year, but still not good. Had an opportunity to beat Kansas but didn't take it.
10. Nebraska (10) (4-4/1-3). Defense is among the worst in the country. Offense is trying to get there.
11. Iowa State (12) (1-7/0-4). Bonus points for playing OU within 10.
12. Baylor (11) (3-5/0-4). They might be better than Nebraska, but for now, they are entrenched at 12.
Predictions
(last week 5-1 straight up, 2-4 ATS)
Kansas at Texas A&M (+3) Kansas has played two road games very close to the vest. This week, KU has to stop an outstanding running team in Texas A&M. A&M has several weapons, which will cause KU to play assignment sound and tackle. If the Jayhawks cannot tackle consistently, they will not be able to stop A&M, since there will be no one to back up the first level of defense. A&M bursts KU's bubble, winning straight up at Kyle Field.
Baylor at Kansas State (-25.5) See previous post. Kansas State covers easily. One additional reason why: Baylor doesn't cause turnovers and loves to cough the ball up.
Iowa State at Missouri (-28.5) Iowa State really has a halfway decent defense. Missouri doesn't tend to run the score up. Iowa State under Dan Hawkins traditionally gave Missouri fits, and even won last year in Ames. In a closer game than most expect, Iowa State hangs around, covering the spread. Don't worry Tiger fans, Gary Pinkel won't have to claim a win that's really a loss this year, even if they won't cover the spread.
Nebraska at Texas (-20.5) Nebraska has an awful defense, and their offense is getting worse. Bill Callahan is reportedly trying to work in some spread option this week with Joe Ganz. That's a mistake. Texas rolls and rolls big.
Colorado at Texas Tech (-13.5) Colorado beat Texas Tech last year. Wow! That was in Colorado. This week, the game is in Lubbock. Look for Mike Leach to take out some frustration on the Buffaloes, easily covering the spread.
Thursday, October 25, 2007
It's Baylor Week
Finally, this week should be easy. The key here is should be. It's homecoming week, and the Baylor Bears are the scheduled victim. It's probably a good choice. Baylor comes into the game on a four game losing streak in the Big 12, having lost to Texas A&M, Colorado, Kansas and Texas by an average score of 42-11. Baylor was particularly bad when they traveled outside the state of Texas, losing to Kansas 58-10. Even though the game appears to be a laugher in waiting, let's take a look at the Baylor Bears.
On offense, Baylor runs a spread offense, similar to the offense run by Texas Tech. However, the Bears' offense lacks the playmakers found on the Red Raiders' offense. There is no Graham Harrell, Michael Crabtree, or Danny Amendola. Baylor is ranked 82nd in total offense, garnering 357.0 yards per game and 103rd in scoring offense, averaging around 20 points per game. Breaking it down, the Bears' passing offense is 20th collecting almost 285 yards per game, but the running game is dreadful, as Baylor rushes for a meager 72 yards per game, which puts them at a solid 115th in the country. In an effort to spur the offense, Baylor head coach Guy Morriss benched the starting quarterback for the first seven games, Blake Szymanski. In his place, Morriss started Michael Machen against Texas, where he went 25 for 44 for 231 yards and one touchdown. He also threw three interceptions. Machen will make his first career road start versus Kansas State. The running game is worse than the passing game. Baylor's leading rusher is Brandon Whitaker, who has rushed for 251 yards and one touchdown. Jay Finley has fared little better, rushing for 184 yards and two touchdowns. Machen does not appear to be the rushing threat Szymanski is. Kansas State, whose defense has been bruised and battered the last three weeks, looks to get healthy against the anemic Baylor offense.
In Waco last year, Baylor held Kansas State to three points. Josh Freeman replaced Dylan Meier and saw his first significant college action, where he was simply awful. In that game in which Baylor won 17-3, Freeman replaced Meier to start the second half and was 11 for 33 for 196 yards and three interceptions. Oh what difference a year makes. This past weekend in the loss to Oklahoma State, Freeman threw for 404 yards, going 36 for 51 with three touchdowns and no interceptions. The Baylor defense hasn't been exactly salty all year, either. Baylor ranks 90th nationally in total defense, giving up 429 yards per game. It isn't a bend but don't break defense either, as Baylor allows a 93rd ranked 32 points per game. The Bears are equally bad at stopping the run and the pass, as Baylor allows an 80th ranked 173 yards per game rushing and 94th ranked 256 yards per game passing. That should allow Kansas State to have a balanced game plan, attacking the Baylor defense on both the ground and through the air.
Jordy Nelson should have another big day. Nelson, Kansas State's senior wide receiver, has 68 receptions for 903 yards and 6 touchdowns thus far this season. With seven catches, Nelson would tie Kansas State's single season record, currently held by Darnell McDonald. With 97 yards, Nelson would be the first receiver to gain 1,000 yards in a season since James Terry in 2003. Look for Nelson to get those seven catches and 97 yards sometime in the third quarter.
The Baylor special teams are anything but special. The Bears rank 111th in kick off returns, 64th in punt returns, and 88th in net punting. That's a recipe for disaster versus an angry Wildcat bunch.
Look for KSU to easily cover the spread.
On offense, Baylor runs a spread offense, similar to the offense run by Texas Tech. However, the Bears' offense lacks the playmakers found on the Red Raiders' offense. There is no Graham Harrell, Michael Crabtree, or Danny Amendola. Baylor is ranked 82nd in total offense, garnering 357.0 yards per game and 103rd in scoring offense, averaging around 20 points per game. Breaking it down, the Bears' passing offense is 20th collecting almost 285 yards per game, but the running game is dreadful, as Baylor rushes for a meager 72 yards per game, which puts them at a solid 115th in the country. In an effort to spur the offense, Baylor head coach Guy Morriss benched the starting quarterback for the first seven games, Blake Szymanski. In his place, Morriss started Michael Machen against Texas, where he went 25 for 44 for 231 yards and one touchdown. He also threw three interceptions. Machen will make his first career road start versus Kansas State. The running game is worse than the passing game. Baylor's leading rusher is Brandon Whitaker, who has rushed for 251 yards and one touchdown. Jay Finley has fared little better, rushing for 184 yards and two touchdowns. Machen does not appear to be the rushing threat Szymanski is. Kansas State, whose defense has been bruised and battered the last three weeks, looks to get healthy against the anemic Baylor offense.
In Waco last year, Baylor held Kansas State to three points. Josh Freeman replaced Dylan Meier and saw his first significant college action, where he was simply awful. In that game in which Baylor won 17-3, Freeman replaced Meier to start the second half and was 11 for 33 for 196 yards and three interceptions. Oh what difference a year makes. This past weekend in the loss to Oklahoma State, Freeman threw for 404 yards, going 36 for 51 with three touchdowns and no interceptions. The Baylor defense hasn't been exactly salty all year, either. Baylor ranks 90th nationally in total defense, giving up 429 yards per game. It isn't a bend but don't break defense either, as Baylor allows a 93rd ranked 32 points per game. The Bears are equally bad at stopping the run and the pass, as Baylor allows an 80th ranked 173 yards per game rushing and 94th ranked 256 yards per game passing. That should allow Kansas State to have a balanced game plan, attacking the Baylor defense on both the ground and through the air.
Jordy Nelson should have another big day. Nelson, Kansas State's senior wide receiver, has 68 receptions for 903 yards and 6 touchdowns thus far this season. With seven catches, Nelson would tie Kansas State's single season record, currently held by Darnell McDonald. With 97 yards, Nelson would be the first receiver to gain 1,000 yards in a season since James Terry in 2003. Look for Nelson to get those seven catches and 97 yards sometime in the third quarter.
The Baylor special teams are anything but special. The Bears rank 111th in kick off returns, 64th in punt returns, and 88th in net punting. That's a recipe for disaster versus an angry Wildcat bunch.
Look for KSU to easily cover the spread.
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
Football Recruiting Overview
Though we are moving into the middle of the football season, it's time to take a peek into the future of the Wildcats. As explained in the recruiting FAQ, a team may have a maximum of 85 scholarship athletes at any one time. It's not known how many players are on scholarship; however, my best guess is that 81 are on scholarship right now. It's also my best guess that 18 scholarship athletes will be leaving the program, which is based on seniors that will graduate. Of course, others could move on, but as of now, my best guess is that Kansas State will have 22 scholarships to offer this year. That number could be reduced by two, as greyshirt Jayson Cuba is expected to join the team in January, and Danny Hogan, who left the team in August for personal reasons, may rejoin the team.
Here is a breakdown, position group by position group (with class as of 2008 in parentheses, along with what I consider to be ideal):
Quarterbacks (3 on scholarship, 4-5 is ideal)
Josh Freeman (Jr.)
Carson Coffman (So.)
Tysyn Hartman (RFr.)
Running Backs (5 on scholarship, 5-6 ideal)
Leon Patton (Jr.)
John McCardle (Sr.)
Jeremy Reed (So.)
Dee Bell (RFr.)
Justin Woods (RFr.)
Tight Ends (3 on scholarship, 5 ideal)
Brett Alstatt (Sr.)
Jeron Mastrud (Jr.)
Jeremy Mack (RFr.)
Wide Receivers (5 on scholarship, 6-8 ideal)
Deon Murphy (Sr.)
Ernie Pierce (Sr.)
Cedric Wilson (Sr.)
Tony Purvis (RSo.)
LaMark Brown (So.)
Danny Hogan, who left the program for personal reasons, may be back as a true freshman.
Offensive Linemen (15 on scholarship, 16-18 ideal)
Jordan Bedore (Sr.)
Gerard Spexarth (Sr.)
Ben Liu (Sr.)
Alesana Alesana (Sr.)
Brad Rooker (Sr.)
Caleb Handy (Sr.)
Eric Benoit (RJr.) (I think he has a redshirt season available)
Nick Stringer (Jr.)
Trevor Viers (Jr.)
Brock Unruh (Jr.)
Zach Kendall (So.)
Kenneth Mayfield (So.)
Clyde Aufner (So.)
Kaleb Drinkgern (RFr.)
Colton Freeze (RFr.)
Defensive Ends (4 on scholarship, 6-7 ideal)
Vlad Faustin (Sr.)
Chidubamu Abana (Sr.)
Payton Kirk (RFr.)
Raphael Guidry (RFr.)
Nose Tackles (3 on scholarship, 4-5 ideal)
Brandon Balkcom (Sr.)
Gabe Crews (So.)
Xzavier Stewart (RFr.)
Inside Linebackers (5 on scholarship, 5-6 ideal)
Reggie Walker (Sr.)
Mac Rosel (Jr.)
John Houlik (Jr.)
Kevin Rohleder (So.)
Davyon McGhee (So.)
Jayson Cuba is a greyshirt, and will likely land here.
Outside Linebackers (6 on scholarship, 5-6 ideal)
Chris Patterson (Sr.)
Ian Campbell (Sr.)
Antwon Moore (Sr.) (perhaps a medical redshirt will be available)
Ross Diehl (Jr.)
Olu Hall (Jr.)
Eric Childs (Jr.)
Cornerbacks (4 on scholarship, 6-7 ideal)
Ray Cheatham (Sr.)
Otis Johnson (Jr.)
Joshua Moore (RSo.)
Kendrick Matthews (So.)
Safeties (6 on scholarship, 6-7 ideal)
Gary Chandler (Sr.)
Andrew Erker (Sr.)
Kevin Hollis (Jr.)
Chris Carney (Jr.)
Courtney Herndon (Jr.)
Dahrnaz Tigner (So.)
Specialists (4 on scholarship)
Brooks Rossman (Sr.)
Jared Parker (Sr.)
Josh Cherry (So.)
Corey Adams (So.)
Here is a breakdown, position group by position group (with class as of 2008 in parentheses, along with what I consider to be ideal):
Quarterbacks (3 on scholarship, 4-5 is ideal)
Josh Freeman (Jr.)
Carson Coffman (So.)
Tysyn Hartman (RFr.)
Running Backs (5 on scholarship, 5-6 ideal)
Leon Patton (Jr.)
John McCardle (Sr.)
Jeremy Reed (So.)
Dee Bell (RFr.)
Justin Woods (RFr.)
Tight Ends (3 on scholarship, 5 ideal)
Brett Alstatt (Sr.)
Jeron Mastrud (Jr.)
Jeremy Mack (RFr.)
Wide Receivers (5 on scholarship, 6-8 ideal)
Deon Murphy (Sr.)
Ernie Pierce (Sr.)
Cedric Wilson (Sr.)
Tony Purvis (RSo.)
LaMark Brown (So.)
Danny Hogan, who left the program for personal reasons, may be back as a true freshman.
Offensive Linemen (15 on scholarship, 16-18 ideal)
Jordan Bedore (Sr.)
Gerard Spexarth (Sr.)
Ben Liu (Sr.)
Alesana Alesana (Sr.)
Brad Rooker (Sr.)
Caleb Handy (Sr.)
Eric Benoit (RJr.) (I think he has a redshirt season available)
Nick Stringer (Jr.)
Trevor Viers (Jr.)
Brock Unruh (Jr.)
Zach Kendall (So.)
Kenneth Mayfield (So.)
Clyde Aufner (So.)
Kaleb Drinkgern (RFr.)
Colton Freeze (RFr.)
Defensive Ends (4 on scholarship, 6-7 ideal)
Vlad Faustin (Sr.)
Chidubamu Abana (Sr.)
Payton Kirk (RFr.)
Raphael Guidry (RFr.)
Nose Tackles (3 on scholarship, 4-5 ideal)
Brandon Balkcom (Sr.)
Gabe Crews (So.)
Xzavier Stewart (RFr.)
Inside Linebackers (5 on scholarship, 5-6 ideal)
Reggie Walker (Sr.)
Mac Rosel (Jr.)
John Houlik (Jr.)
Kevin Rohleder (So.)
Davyon McGhee (So.)
Jayson Cuba is a greyshirt, and will likely land here.
Outside Linebackers (6 on scholarship, 5-6 ideal)
Chris Patterson (Sr.)
Ian Campbell (Sr.)
Antwon Moore (Sr.) (perhaps a medical redshirt will be available)
Ross Diehl (Jr.)
Olu Hall (Jr.)
Eric Childs (Jr.)
Cornerbacks (4 on scholarship, 6-7 ideal)
Ray Cheatham (Sr.)
Otis Johnson (Jr.)
Joshua Moore (RSo.)
Kendrick Matthews (So.)
Safeties (6 on scholarship, 6-7 ideal)
Gary Chandler (Sr.)
Andrew Erker (Sr.)
Kevin Hollis (Jr.)
Chris Carney (Jr.)
Courtney Herndon (Jr.)
Dahrnaz Tigner (So.)
Specialists (4 on scholarship)
Brooks Rossman (Sr.)
Jared Parker (Sr.)
Josh Cherry (So.)
Corey Adams (So.)
Tuesday, October 23, 2007
Recruiting FAQ
Ok, it's almost hardcore recruiting season. People always have questions, so here are some answers to commonly asked questions. If anyone wants another question answered, post a comment or send an e-mail.
1. When is signing day?
There are several signing periods; there is no "signing day." For junior college mid-year football transfers, the signing period is December 19, 2007, until January 15, 2008. The general signing period is from February 6, 2008, until April 1, 2008. If anyone is curious, basketball has two signing periods. The early period is November 14-21, 2007, and the regular period is April 16, 2008, until May 21, 2008.
The "signing date" is ONLY associated with the signing of a National Letter of Intent, which is binding on the player and the school. Schools may make non-binding scholarship agreements at any time.
For more information and a full calendar of signing dates, see the national letter of intent site.
2. What is a letter of intent?
Courtesy the National Letter of Intent website:
By signing a National Letter of Intent, a prospective student-athlete agrees to attend the designated college or university for one academic year. Pursuant to the terms of the National Letter of Intent program, participating institutions agree to provide athletics financial aid for one academic year to the student-athlete, provided he/she is admitted to the institution and is eligible for financial aid under NCAA rules. An important provision of the National Letter of Intent program is a recruiting prohibition applied after a prospective student-athlete signs a Letter of Intent. This prohibition requires participating institutions cease recruitment of a prospective student-athlete once a National Letter of Intent is signed with another institution.
For more information, see the national letter of intent site.
3. When are quiet periods and dead periods?
For a full calendar of recruiting periods for football, see the NCAA Football Recruiting calendar.
For a full calendar of recruiting periods for basketball, see the NCAA Basketball Recruiting calendar.
Another helpful tool from the NCAA is a NCAA Recruiting Chart.
4. What is grayshirting?
From the National Letter of Intent website, “'Grayshirting' is a term used in the recruiting process to describe situations in which a student-athlete delays initial enrollment in a collegiate institution to the winter or spring term after the traditional academic year begins. Students who 'grayshirt' often use the fall to take classes part time or choose not to enroll in college at all. 'Grayshirting' is not a formal designation by the NCAA or the National Letter of Intent program."
5. What can I do?
In simplest terms, nothing. Please let the coaches recruit. Please do not contact recruits via facebook, myspace, e-mail, or in any other way. Also, Kansas State has a pamphlet for fans to read. Please read it and live by it. Don't endanger your school!
6. Where can I find more information from the NCAA?
There are several places. The first is an NCAA website. Second, check out bylaw 13 of the 2007-08 Division I Manual.
7. Can you explain the numbers thing? How many student-athletes can sign letters of intent?
I don't have a website for reference for you here, but I will explain. First, a division one football team may only have 85 student athletes on scholarship at any time. During each year, a school may aware 25 scholarships to new counters. (A walk-on in his second year or later would not be a new counter; a counter is any one of the 85 scholarships.) A school theoretically may sign as many as they want to, but may award only 25 scholarships (new counters) maximum. It's bad practice to over-sign and then not have the awards available. Another issue is count backs. Mid-year junior college players may "count back" to the previous years recruiting class if and only if the previous year did not have 25 new counters. Also, a school may not go over the 85 scholarship limit at any time.
8. What are the initial eligibility requirements?
Again, a website helps with that. Check out the NCAA clearinghouse for more information.
1. When is signing day?
There are several signing periods; there is no "signing day." For junior college mid-year football transfers, the signing period is December 19, 2007, until January 15, 2008. The general signing period is from February 6, 2008, until April 1, 2008. If anyone is curious, basketball has two signing periods. The early period is November 14-21, 2007, and the regular period is April 16, 2008, until May 21, 2008.
The "signing date" is ONLY associated with the signing of a National Letter of Intent, which is binding on the player and the school. Schools may make non-binding scholarship agreements at any time.
For more information and a full calendar of signing dates, see the national letter of intent site.
2. What is a letter of intent?
Courtesy the National Letter of Intent website:
By signing a National Letter of Intent, a prospective student-athlete agrees to attend the designated college or university for one academic year. Pursuant to the terms of the National Letter of Intent program, participating institutions agree to provide athletics financial aid for one academic year to the student-athlete, provided he/she is admitted to the institution and is eligible for financial aid under NCAA rules. An important provision of the National Letter of Intent program is a recruiting prohibition applied after a prospective student-athlete signs a Letter of Intent. This prohibition requires participating institutions cease recruitment of a prospective student-athlete once a National Letter of Intent is signed with another institution.
For more information, see the national letter of intent site.
3. When are quiet periods and dead periods?
For a full calendar of recruiting periods for football, see the NCAA Football Recruiting calendar.
For a full calendar of recruiting periods for basketball, see the NCAA Basketball Recruiting calendar.
Another helpful tool from the NCAA is a NCAA Recruiting Chart.
4. What is grayshirting?
From the National Letter of Intent website, “'Grayshirting' is a term used in the recruiting process to describe situations in which a student-athlete delays initial enrollment in a collegiate institution to the winter or spring term after the traditional academic year begins. Students who 'grayshirt' often use the fall to take classes part time or choose not to enroll in college at all. 'Grayshirting' is not a formal designation by the NCAA or the National Letter of Intent program."
5. What can I do?
In simplest terms, nothing. Please let the coaches recruit. Please do not contact recruits via facebook, myspace, e-mail, or in any other way. Also, Kansas State has a pamphlet for fans to read. Please read it and live by it. Don't endanger your school!
6. Where can I find more information from the NCAA?
There are several places. The first is an NCAA website. Second, check out bylaw 13 of the 2007-08 Division I Manual.
7. Can you explain the numbers thing? How many student-athletes can sign letters of intent?
I don't have a website for reference for you here, but I will explain. First, a division one football team may only have 85 student athletes on scholarship at any time. During each year, a school may aware 25 scholarships to new counters. (A walk-on in his second year or later would not be a new counter; a counter is any one of the 85 scholarships.) A school theoretically may sign as many as they want to, but may award only 25 scholarships (new counters) maximum. It's bad practice to over-sign and then not have the awards available. Another issue is count backs. Mid-year junior college players may "count back" to the previous years recruiting class if and only if the previous year did not have 25 new counters. Also, a school may not go over the 85 scholarship limit at any time.
8. What are the initial eligibility requirements?
Again, a website helps with that. Check out the NCAA clearinghouse for more information.
Saturday, October 20, 2007
Saturday Rewind
Oklahoma State 41 Kansas State 39. Well for the first time, I was spot on predicting the Kansas State loss. Ultimately, Kansas State was outplayed on special teams, giving up a huge kick off return for a touchdown immediately after taking a 14 point lead, letting OSU back into the game. Then, Kansas State ultimately couldn't handle success, and for the third time this season lost a close game where they had the lead, this time losing leads of 14-0 and 21-7, and also surrendered two fourth quarter leads. OSU stormed back to score 17 fourth quarter points and won the game when Kansas State could not stop them or hold onto the football. Jordy Nelson had an amazing day (12 catches for 174 yards and 3 TDs and a 2 point conversion), but simply could stave off the errors of Jeron Mastrud and Michael Pooschke, who both fumbled keeping Oklahoma State in the game. Kansas State also caught a bad break when a punted ball bounced into Cedric Wilson, against creating a turnover for the Cowboys. Josh Freeman rallied Kansas State in the closing minutes, similar to the game against Oklahoma State last year, and Kansas State took the lead with a minute remaining after making the two point conversion. The Kansas State defense collapsed and allowed OSU to march easily down the field for the game winning chip shot field goal.
Ultimately, Kansas State was not plus in the turnover ratio and/or touchdowns from defense/special teams, so they could not pull of a victory.
Kansas 19 Colorado 14. For the first time under Mark Mangino, Kansas wins two Big 12 road games. Kansas played suffocating defense, taking away Hugh Charles and Cody Hawkins could not do enough to overcome the loss of running game. Kansas impresses with their ability to tackle and how assignment sound they are. Fundamentally, Kansas is one of the best teams in the country. They will continue to be a tough out.
Oklahoma 17 Iowa State 7. In a shocker for how close it was, ISU went toe-to-toe with the Sooners, and if it weren't for an errant kicker, may have had a chance to pull out a win versus a superior opponent.
Texas 31 Baylor 10. The Bears kept the game close, but the Longhorns put them away late, pulling away for a 21 point win.
Texas A&M 36 Nebraska 14. Again, the vaunted Blackshirt defense of Nebraska couldn't stop the running game. Texas A&M had their way, rushing for 362 yards. Texas A&M cannot throw the ball, but since Nebraska simply cannot stop anyone, it became irrelevant as the Aggie running game completely dominated the Cornhuskers.
Missouri 41 Texas Tech 10. Graham Harrell had three interceptions going into the game, and left with seven. Missouri harassed the Red Raiders all day and kept them completely off balance. Missouri used a balanced rushing attack and dominated Texas Tech. It's not shocking that Missouri won, but it is shocking they won going away. It appears Missouri and Kansas will battle for the right to represent the Big 12 North in the Big 12 title game.
Ultimately, Kansas State was not plus in the turnover ratio and/or touchdowns from defense/special teams, so they could not pull of a victory.
Kansas 19 Colorado 14. For the first time under Mark Mangino, Kansas wins two Big 12 road games. Kansas played suffocating defense, taking away Hugh Charles and Cody Hawkins could not do enough to overcome the loss of running game. Kansas impresses with their ability to tackle and how assignment sound they are. Fundamentally, Kansas is one of the best teams in the country. They will continue to be a tough out.
Oklahoma 17 Iowa State 7. In a shocker for how close it was, ISU went toe-to-toe with the Sooners, and if it weren't for an errant kicker, may have had a chance to pull out a win versus a superior opponent.
Texas 31 Baylor 10. The Bears kept the game close, but the Longhorns put them away late, pulling away for a 21 point win.
Texas A&M 36 Nebraska 14. Again, the vaunted Blackshirt defense of Nebraska couldn't stop the running game. Texas A&M had their way, rushing for 362 yards. Texas A&M cannot throw the ball, but since Nebraska simply cannot stop anyone, it became irrelevant as the Aggie running game completely dominated the Cornhuskers.
Missouri 41 Texas Tech 10. Graham Harrell had three interceptions going into the game, and left with seven. Missouri harassed the Red Raiders all day and kept them completely off balance. Missouri used a balanced rushing attack and dominated Texas Tech. It's not shocking that Missouri won, but it is shocking they won going away. It appears Missouri and Kansas will battle for the right to represent the Big 12 North in the Big 12 title game.
Friday, October 19, 2007
Week 8-Big 12 Rankings and Predictions
We are three full weeks into Big 12 action, and this is how the teams shake out (last week in parentheses) (overall record/Big 12 record):
1. Oklahoma (3) (6-1/2-1). The Sooners came through with a big victory last Saturday, taking down the Missouri Tigers in Norman. Oklahoma surged to an early lead, Missouri showed their metal by responding, the Oklahoma capitalized on some Tiger mistakes and won going away, 41-31. While OU has not demonstrated an ability to play on the road, they have shown they are currently the class of the Big 12, even with the hiccup early against Colorado.
2. Kansas (2) (6-0/2-0). Kansas pummeled an overmatched Baylor squad. For the first time this year, the Jayhawks leave the state of Kansas. Though Colorado has been exposed, we will see if Kansas can deal with a little bit of adversity.
3. Missouri (1) (5-1/1-1). Missouri played the Sooners close for three quarters, then let the pressure get to them and allowed Oklahoma to take control late. Missouri still gets some credit for the road win versus Ole Miss and the neutral site win versus Illinois. This week provides a stern test with Texas Tech visiting. Missouri will be challenged by the Texas Tech offense, but has an opportunity to prove they belong in the nation's elite.
4. Kansas State (5) (4-2/2-1). The Wildcats used special teams and efficient if unspectacular offense to pull away from Colorado. Kansas State, who has 10 interceptions in their last three games, also used turnovers to open up the game against the Buffaloes. Josh Freeman again returned to his efficient form, limiting turnovers. When Kansas State eliminates turnovers, they are much more likely to win (no surprise I know). In the loss against Auburn, KSU had two interceptions and one fumble lost, and in the loss to Kansas, KSU had three interceptions. What's interesting, Auburn had two turnovers and Kansas had three. In their four wins, Kansas State has a grand total of three turnovers (two additional interceptions and one fumble lost), and in those four wins, the Wildcats have received nine turnovers. In the four wins, KSU has a +6 turnover margin, and in the 2 losses, KSU is -1. Additionally, in the two losses, KSU has no defensive or special teams touchdowns. In the the four wins, KSU has five special teams and defensive touchdowns. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that Kansas State needs to score on special teams and/or be in the plus column in turnover margin to win. Unfortunately, turnovers and special teams/defensive scores are more fickle than a steady offense. That's why Kansas State is so hard to predict.
5. Texas Tech (7) (6-1/2-1). Red Raider wide receiver Michael Crabtree is the freshman of the year. Not in the Big 12, in the nation. He's also an All-American. He's also a Heisman Trophy candidate and should win the Bilenikoff Award. After seven games, he has 78 receptions for 1,244 yards and 17 touchdowns. That's just ridiculous. Graham Harrell has 31 touchdown passes and three (yes, 3) interceptions. Ruffin McNeil is trying to turn around the defense, and held Texas A&M to seven points. Texas Tech is a dangerous team.
6. Texas (8) (5-2/1-2). Limas Sweed is done. Even with that, Iowa State makes everyone get better.
7. Oklahoma State (9) (4-3/2-1). Oklahoma State has an exceptionally dangerous offense with Zac Robinson, Dontrell Savage, and Adarius Bowman. It's a balanced offense that has the ability to score and control the game via the run or pass. Kansas State has their hands full Saturday.
8. Colorado (4) (4-3/2-1). Colorado got fat and sassy against Baylor, but that's not hard. Sure, they came from behind and took advantage of a youthful Sam Bradford and beat Oklahoma, but Kansas State exposed their weaknesses. The Buffaloes still don't have a great offense (though Hugh Charles is running very well) and their defense, even with several super studs including all everything Jordan Dizon, is susceptible to balanced offenses.
9. Texas A&M (6) (5-2/2-1). The Aggies are a mess. A&M is one dimensional on offense, and their defense is average at best. What's worse, the Aggies have one "easy" game left this year, at Nebraska. How is that for an enlightening statement?
10. Nebraska (10) (4-3/1-2). If the Aggies are a mess, I don't even know how to describe the meltdown in Lincoln. Oklahoma State rolled out to a 38-0 halftime lead. Nebraska has no offense, Nebraska has no defense, and Nebraska now has no athletic director. Former head coach and Congressman Tom Osborn has been brought in to try and shore up the cesspool that is Nebraska football.
11. Baylor (11) (3-4/0-3). The Bears are terrible.
12. Iowa State (12) (1-6/0-3). The Cyclones are worse.
1. Oklahoma (3) (6-1/2-1). The Sooners came through with a big victory last Saturday, taking down the Missouri Tigers in Norman. Oklahoma surged to an early lead, Missouri showed their metal by responding, the Oklahoma capitalized on some Tiger mistakes and won going away, 41-31. While OU has not demonstrated an ability to play on the road, they have shown they are currently the class of the Big 12, even with the hiccup early against Colorado.
2. Kansas (2) (6-0/2-0). Kansas pummeled an overmatched Baylor squad. For the first time this year, the Jayhawks leave the state of Kansas. Though Colorado has been exposed, we will see if Kansas can deal with a little bit of adversity.
3. Missouri (1) (5-1/1-1). Missouri played the Sooners close for three quarters, then let the pressure get to them and allowed Oklahoma to take control late. Missouri still gets some credit for the road win versus Ole Miss and the neutral site win versus Illinois. This week provides a stern test with Texas Tech visiting. Missouri will be challenged by the Texas Tech offense, but has an opportunity to prove they belong in the nation's elite.
4. Kansas State (5) (4-2/2-1). The Wildcats used special teams and efficient if unspectacular offense to pull away from Colorado. Kansas State, who has 10 interceptions in their last three games, also used turnovers to open up the game against the Buffaloes. Josh Freeman again returned to his efficient form, limiting turnovers. When Kansas State eliminates turnovers, they are much more likely to win (no surprise I know). In the loss against Auburn, KSU had two interceptions and one fumble lost, and in the loss to Kansas, KSU had three interceptions. What's interesting, Auburn had two turnovers and Kansas had three. In their four wins, Kansas State has a grand total of three turnovers (two additional interceptions and one fumble lost), and in those four wins, the Wildcats have received nine turnovers. In the four wins, KSU has a +6 turnover margin, and in the 2 losses, KSU is -1. Additionally, in the two losses, KSU has no defensive or special teams touchdowns. In the the four wins, KSU has five special teams and defensive touchdowns. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that Kansas State needs to score on special teams and/or be in the plus column in turnover margin to win. Unfortunately, turnovers and special teams/defensive scores are more fickle than a steady offense. That's why Kansas State is so hard to predict.
5. Texas Tech (7) (6-1/2-1). Red Raider wide receiver Michael Crabtree is the freshman of the year. Not in the Big 12, in the nation. He's also an All-American. He's also a Heisman Trophy candidate and should win the Bilenikoff Award. After seven games, he has 78 receptions for 1,244 yards and 17 touchdowns. That's just ridiculous. Graham Harrell has 31 touchdown passes and three (yes, 3) interceptions. Ruffin McNeil is trying to turn around the defense, and held Texas A&M to seven points. Texas Tech is a dangerous team.
6. Texas (8) (5-2/1-2). Limas Sweed is done. Even with that, Iowa State makes everyone get better.
7. Oklahoma State (9) (4-3/2-1). Oklahoma State has an exceptionally dangerous offense with Zac Robinson, Dontrell Savage, and Adarius Bowman. It's a balanced offense that has the ability to score and control the game via the run or pass. Kansas State has their hands full Saturday.
8. Colorado (4) (4-3/2-1). Colorado got fat and sassy against Baylor, but that's not hard. Sure, they came from behind and took advantage of a youthful Sam Bradford and beat Oklahoma, but Kansas State exposed their weaknesses. The Buffaloes still don't have a great offense (though Hugh Charles is running very well) and their defense, even with several super studs including all everything Jordan Dizon, is susceptible to balanced offenses.
9. Texas A&M (6) (5-2/2-1). The Aggies are a mess. A&M is one dimensional on offense, and their defense is average at best. What's worse, the Aggies have one "easy" game left this year, at Nebraska. How is that for an enlightening statement?
10. Nebraska (10) (4-3/1-2). If the Aggies are a mess, I don't even know how to describe the meltdown in Lincoln. Oklahoma State rolled out to a 38-0 halftime lead. Nebraska has no offense, Nebraska has no defense, and Nebraska now has no athletic director. Former head coach and Congressman Tom Osborn has been brought in to try and shore up the cesspool that is Nebraska football.
11. Baylor (11) (3-4/0-3). The Bears are terrible.
12. Iowa State (12) (1-6/0-3). The Cyclones are worse.
Predictions
(last week 5-1 straight up, 3-3 ats)
Oklahoma at Iowa State (+30) That is a lot of points to lay on the road, but well worth it. OU covers in a cake walk.
Texas Tech at Missouri (-3.5) Texas Tech has an outstanding offense, with many different weapons. Missouri is without leading rusher Tony Temple, which causes them to look more like Texas Tech. These teams aren't mirror images--Texas Tech has superior receivers, Missouri has superior tight ends. Missouri is more battle tested and at home. I expect Missouri to pull out a close one at home, winning by around 4-7 points. Missouri covers a back an forth offensive shootout. Oh, and the over/under is 75. Bet the over.
Texas A&M at Nebraska (-2) I don't think that Texas A&M is a good team. I don't think Nebraska is a good team. Both are riddled with deficiencies. Nebraska cannot stop the run, Texas A&M can run but cannot pass. Nebraska won't have many more opportunities to win, and Texas A&M has looked beyond awful on the road. Nebraska gets a little better this week, wnning a close game over the Aggies, but enough to cover the spread.
Texas at Baylor (+24.5) I hate laying that many points on the road, but Baylor is terrible and Texas is finding themselves. This will be more akin to the Texas game last weekend, where UT won by 53. Texas covers.
Kansas at Colorado (+4) Colorado has two true freshmen on their offensive line, and Kansas has a couple get defensive linemen. I expect the Jayhawks to control the Buffalo running game and force Cody Hawkins into putting the ball in the air. That's not good for Colorado. KU will be able to spread the ball around, running and passing. The game stay close for a half, and Kansas pulls away for a double digit win in the second half. I know that Mark Mangino has never finished above 3-5 in the Big 12, and has never won two road conference game in a season, but things change. This year, throw those old trends out the window. The Jayhawks are for real.
Kansas State at Oklahoma State (-2.5) See earlier analysis. Oklahoma State covers, unless KSU is +2 or better in combined turnovers and returns for touchdowns. OSU doesn't turn the ball over and will negate the big returns by KSU. Oklahoma State wins by around 6.
Thursday, October 18, 2007
Going to Kansas City-Basketball Preview
Big 12 Media Days for basketball were held in Kansas City over the last couple days, as Kansas City will be the host of the Big 12 Men's and Women's tournaments this spring. Particularly in men's basketball, this appears to be an exciting season coming up. The three local teams, Missouri, Kansas, and Kansas State, all appear poised to make improvements and significant runs. It's time now for me to make my preseason predictions and name my pre-season Big 12 team. It should be a tough, hard fought race during the Big 12 season, and many teams have outstanding performers. From Kansas to Colorado, every team has an excellent player or two, or even three. But let's start with a preview of the Big 12 men's basketball programs, one through twelve.1. Kansas. As you all know, I don't like Kansas. It's my job to dislike the squawks, and I do. Kansas has NEVER lost in Bramlage Coliseum and that's an embarassment. That said, I cannot let my loathing cloud my judgment, and Kansas is the clear number one choice. Kansas went to the Elite 8 last year and lost only one player of note, Julien Wright. KU returns an outstanding corps of players, including Shady Arthur, Sasha Kaun, Darnell Jackson, and Russell Robinson. The only question is how Brandon Rush, who suffered a torn ACL, will respond. He will return to the KU lineup around December 1. If he returns with his old form, KU is a legitimate national title contender and certainly a top five team. I hate to say it, but it just is true.
2. Texas. I know they lost Kevin Durant. I don't care. That team may actually be better. They have one of the two best point guards in the conference with D.J. Augustin. Texas will be a more balanced team this year, since they simply can't wait for Durant to win the game. I expect Texas's youngsters to take a giant step and play outstanding ball this year.
3. Missouri. Missouri has the other outstanding point guard in the conference, Stefon Hannah. Hannah will do an outstanding job leading the 40 minutes of hell that Mike Anderson is trying to get Missouri to play. DeMarre Carroll, a transfer from Vanderbilt, will help on the boards. There is a bit of addition from subtraction, as Anderson kicked Kalen Grimes off the team.
4. Kansas State.
Kansas State is led by senior leadership of Clent Stewart and David Hoskins, along with Blake Young, who has gotten some of his hops back after suffering and playing with a hurt knee last year. Add to that mix what some have called the best recruiting class in America, and KSU is loaded with potential. Michael Beasley, Billy Walker, and Jacob Pullen give Kansas State more weapons than they have ever had, perhaps. The question is how Kansas State melds the old with the new, and how the team responds to first time head coach Frank Martin. Kansas State has undeniable talent, but sometimes talent isn't enough. Texas last year finished 3rd in the Big 12 with an established head coach to go along with their young guns. Until Frank Martin proves he can coach and these youngsters prove they can play, Kansas State can be no higher than 4th.5. Texas A&M. Mark Turgeon takes over the program, and he takes over a program that is on solid footing. Though Acie Law left, Billy Gillispie did not leave the cupboard bare. Joseph Jones returns and DeAndre Jordan will provide a solid anchor down load for the Aggies. Texas A&M, when they gel, will be oustanding.
6. Baylor. Scott Drew (and his new baby) have a very solid front court. Curtis Jerrells is an outstanding guard and will lead Baylor to a top half finish. That's amazing for a program that was on the edge of disaster just a few years ago.
7. Texas Tech. Tech loses their best player, but it's hard to count out Bobby Knight. Martin Zeno will be the center of the Texas Tech offense, and Coach Knight will have to figure out ways to get something out of his incoming freshmen.
8. Oklahoma. Jeff Capel did a good job trying to overcome the mess left by Kelvin Sampson. If there was an all name team, Longar Longar would certainly be first team. And along with a great name, he's got game.
9. Nebraska. Doc Sadler has perhaps the best big man in the conference, Aleks Maric. The big fella is an outstanding scorer. He will have some help from transfer Jeremy Barr. Sadler's teams play hard nosed defense and certainly could surprise some teams this year.
10. Oklahoma State. OSU is a complete question mark, as there are seven newcomers on the team. 10th is perhaps too high to start them.
11. Colorado. New coach Jeff Bzdelik found a way to turn Air Force--AIR FORCE--into a winner, and he will get Colorado to win too. He does have one outstanding player in Richard Roby, who was forced to try and do too much last year. This year, Bzdelik will have the team playing much more disciplined ball and will have Roby freed up for better looks. Colorado will definitely surprise people this year.
12. Iowa State. Mike Taylor, ISU's best and most dangerous player, was kicked off the team by coach Greg McDermott. ISU will find it very difficult to dig its way out of the cellar.
D.J. Augustin-Texas
Joseph Jones-Texas A&M
Stefon Hannah-Missouri
Michael Beasley-Kansas State
All Big 12 Second Team
Billy Walker-Kansas State
Darrell Arthur-Kansas
Aleks Maric-Nebraska
Richard Roby-Colorado
Martin Zeno-Texas Tech
All Big 12 Third Team
Curtis Jerrells-Baylor
A.J. Abrams-Texas
David Hoskins-Kansas State
Russell Robinson-Kansas
Shearron Collins-Kansas
Shearron Collins-Kansas
Player of the Year-Stefon Hannah
Freshman of the Year-Michael Beasley
Newcomer of the Year-DeMarre Carroll, Mizzou
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