Kansas State (5-3) takes on a 1-8 Iowa State squad this Saturday at 11:30 AM at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Iowa. The Wildcats, 1-2 in road games this year, attempt to win their second versus a Cyclone squad that is searching for their second home victory of the year. Kansas State is favored by 14 points.
Recent trends: In their past 33 games, Kansas State is 25-8 versus the spread against teams with losing records. On ther other hand, the home team is 7-3 versus the spread in the last 10 meetings and Iowa State is 9-2 versus the spread in their last 11 games on grass.
Iowa State has had difficulty on both sides of the ball this year, trying to understand what new head coach Gene Chizik wants them to do. On offense, Iowa State is nationally ranked 91st running the ball (127.72 yards per game), 81st passing the ball (204.44 yards per game), and 99th in total offense (332.22 yards per game). The Cyclones scoring offense is among the nation's worst, as they score a meager 16.56 points per game, which is ranked 116th out of 119 teams. On defense, Iowa State is a little better. The rushing defense is ranked 42nd (131.78 yards per game), pass defense is ranked 74th (232.00 yards per game) and is overall ranked 49th (363.78 yards per game). Iowa State, though, gives up 32 points per game, which ranks 93rd.
In their past two games, a loss at home 17-7 to Oklahoma and a road loss 42-28 to Missouri, ISU has shown a bit more spark. Against Missouri, senior quarterback Bret Meyer was 33/47/0 for 237 yards and one touchdown. The Cyclones were able to get their running game going, with freshman Alexander Robinson taking 21 carries for 149 yards and a touchdown versus the Tigers. The Cyclones controlled time of possession 38:22 to 21:38, converted 11 of 20 third downs, and two of three fourth downs. ISU also outgained the Tigers 389 yards to 366. Iowa State exhibited the ability to play with a second top ten team, holding Missouri to roughly 110 yards less than their seaso average.
Against Oklahoma, Iowa State held a 7-0 halftime lead, and had they been able to kick field goals, ISU might have been able to extend that lead further. Iowa State played solid defense, holding Oklahoma to 316 yards of total offense, some 130 yards below their season average.
Iowa State, since a 56-3 drubbing at the hands of Texas, has played very well in losing to two top ten teams. I expect nothing different this weekend, with Kansas State winning a hard fought battle that goes to the end.
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
Midweek Musings
Gopowercat.com's very own moped stalker suggested today that Kansas State quarterback Josh Freeman is better on the road than at home. Well, let's test that hypothesis. KSU has played three road games (Auburn, Texas, Oklahoma State) and five home games (San Jose State, Missouri State, Kansas, Colorado, Baylor).
Home: 183 attempts, 119 completions, 6 interceptions, 65.0 completion percentage, 1,325 yards or 265 yards per game, 7 touchdowns, and has been sacked twice for 8 yards. His passer efficiency rating is 131.91 at home. You too can calculate passer efficiency at http://football.stassen.com/pass-eff/.
Road: 146 attempts, 90 completions, 2 interceptions, 61.6 completion percentage, 849 yards or 283 yards per game, 4 touchdowns, and has been sacked 4 times for 2 yards. His passer efficiency rating is 116.79 on the road.
I don't know what to make of the statistics, but Freeman appears to be playing pretty well both at home and on the road--though his passer efficiency rating is fairly marginal. His overall efficiency rating of 125.2 ranks 68th in the nation. 116.79 would rank 86th and 131.91 would rank 49th.
At the end of the day, I know that Josh had a simply awful first half versus Baylor, but he still ended the day 22/33/1 for 247 yards and three touchdowns. His efficiency rating? A cool 153.5. Not bad for having such a bad first half the coaches wouldn't let him throw.
Another gopowercat.com user, whom I cannot remember, came up with this nugget, or at least a similar version to this nugget: Jordy Nelson has 5 punt returns for 264 yards and 2 touchdowns. That's a nice little punt return average of 52.8 yards per punt return. WOW! Of course, Nelson doesn't qualify to be the national leader because he hasn't returned enough punts. The "other" KSU punt returner, Deon Murphy, does qualify for national rankings as he has returned 20 punts for 344 yards, a nifty 17.2 yards per return. Murphy ranks fifth in the nation and first in the Big 12. But what about Jordy? How many punt returns would he have to have to qualify for national recognition? A player has to have a minimum of 1.2 punt returns per game to qualify. Jordy would have to have 9.6 (ok, fine, 10) returns to qualify for national honors. If he had five additional returns of zero yards, his punt return average would be 26.4 yards per return, and then he would qualify for national honors. Oh, and his national rank? Number one. The current number one, Leodis McKelvin from Troy, averages 21.18 yards per punt return. So Nelson, without gaining another yard, would still be number one by over five yards per return. That too deserves a WOW!
Everything about Jordy Nelson deserves a wow, though. Not only is he a stellar punt returner and receiver, he also is 2 for 3 passing the ball for 45 yards and 2 touchdowns, with a passer efficiency rating of 412.67. Not bad for a walk-on from Riley, Kansas.
On the other side of the ball, teams have scored 28 times against KSU's defense (and one touchdown on special teams and the opposing team's defense scored one touchdown) in 120 drives (the number derived from page 24 of the Iowa State game notes provided by KSU Sports Information). Opposing teams have scored 19 touchdowns on drives and nine field goals.
That's 23.3 percent of the time, when the other team gets the ball, they score. 15.8 percent of all drives end in touchdowns. 7.5 percent of all drives end in field goals.
Twenty-nine times, opposing offenses have gone three and out, which is 24.2 percent of the time. Twenty-two times (16 interceptions and six fumble recoveries), KSU has forced a turnover (18.3 percent of the time).
Five of the scoring drives took between one and five plays. Nineteen of the scoring drives took between six and ten plays. Four scoring drives went for eleven plays or more.
Kansas State's defense has also been burned by the big play. The Wildcats have allowed 36 plays of 20 or more yards this season (including four of 40 or more yards). The breakdown:
Auburn, four plays of 20 or more yards, including one of 55 yards.
San Jose State, three plays of 20 or more yards.
Missouri State, three plays of 20 or more yards.
Texas, three plays of 20 or more yards.
Kansas, five plays of 20 or more yards.
Colorado, nine plays of 20 or more yards, including two of 40 yards.
Oklahoma State, four plays of 20 or more yards.
Baylor, five plays of 20 or more yards, including one for 52 yards.
Several other plays have gone for big yards as well, including a fumble return for a touchdown versus Auburn (34 yards), an interception return versus Auburn (49 yards), a punt return versus Auburn (57 yards), and a 98 yard kick-off return for a touchdown versus Oklahoma State.
By the way, by comparison, Kansas State has 9 fewer plays from scrimmage for 20 or more yards than their competition, a mere 27 (Auburn 3, San Jose State 3, Missouri State 3, Texas 1, Kansas 2, Colorado 7, Oklahoma State 2, Baylor 6).
Home: 183 attempts, 119 completions, 6 interceptions, 65.0 completion percentage, 1,325 yards or 265 yards per game, 7 touchdowns, and has been sacked twice for 8 yards. His passer efficiency rating is 131.91 at home. You too can calculate passer efficiency at http://football.stassen.com/pass-eff/.
Road: 146 attempts, 90 completions, 2 interceptions, 61.6 completion percentage, 849 yards or 283 yards per game, 4 touchdowns, and has been sacked 4 times for 2 yards. His passer efficiency rating is 116.79 on the road.
I don't know what to make of the statistics, but Freeman appears to be playing pretty well both at home and on the road--though his passer efficiency rating is fairly marginal. His overall efficiency rating of 125.2 ranks 68th in the nation. 116.79 would rank 86th and 131.91 would rank 49th.
At the end of the day, I know that Josh had a simply awful first half versus Baylor, but he still ended the day 22/33/1 for 247 yards and three touchdowns. His efficiency rating? A cool 153.5. Not bad for having such a bad first half the coaches wouldn't let him throw.
Another gopowercat.com user, whom I cannot remember, came up with this nugget, or at least a similar version to this nugget: Jordy Nelson has 5 punt returns for 264 yards and 2 touchdowns. That's a nice little punt return average of 52.8 yards per punt return. WOW! Of course, Nelson doesn't qualify to be the national leader because he hasn't returned enough punts. The "other" KSU punt returner, Deon Murphy, does qualify for national rankings as he has returned 20 punts for 344 yards, a nifty 17.2 yards per return. Murphy ranks fifth in the nation and first in the Big 12. But what about Jordy? How many punt returns would he have to have to qualify for national recognition? A player has to have a minimum of 1.2 punt returns per game to qualify. Jordy would have to have 9.6 (ok, fine, 10) returns to qualify for national honors. If he had five additional returns of zero yards, his punt return average would be 26.4 yards per return, and then he would qualify for national honors. Oh, and his national rank? Number one. The current number one, Leodis McKelvin from Troy, averages 21.18 yards per punt return. So Nelson, without gaining another yard, would still be number one by over five yards per return. That too deserves a WOW!
Everything about Jordy Nelson deserves a wow, though. Not only is he a stellar punt returner and receiver, he also is 2 for 3 passing the ball for 45 yards and 2 touchdowns, with a passer efficiency rating of 412.67. Not bad for a walk-on from Riley, Kansas.
On the other side of the ball, teams have scored 28 times against KSU's defense (and one touchdown on special teams and the opposing team's defense scored one touchdown) in 120 drives (the number derived from page 24 of the Iowa State game notes provided by KSU Sports Information). Opposing teams have scored 19 touchdowns on drives and nine field goals.
That's 23.3 percent of the time, when the other team gets the ball, they score. 15.8 percent of all drives end in touchdowns. 7.5 percent of all drives end in field goals.
Twenty-nine times, opposing offenses have gone three and out, which is 24.2 percent of the time. Twenty-two times (16 interceptions and six fumble recoveries), KSU has forced a turnover (18.3 percent of the time).
Five of the scoring drives took between one and five plays. Nineteen of the scoring drives took between six and ten plays. Four scoring drives went for eleven plays or more.
Kansas State's defense has also been burned by the big play. The Wildcats have allowed 36 plays of 20 or more yards this season (including four of 40 or more yards). The breakdown:
Auburn, four plays of 20 or more yards, including one of 55 yards.
San Jose State, three plays of 20 or more yards.
Missouri State, three plays of 20 or more yards.
Texas, three plays of 20 or more yards.
Kansas, five plays of 20 or more yards.
Colorado, nine plays of 20 or more yards, including two of 40 yards.
Oklahoma State, four plays of 20 or more yards.
Baylor, five plays of 20 or more yards, including one for 52 yards.
Several other plays have gone for big yards as well, including a fumble return for a touchdown versus Auburn (34 yards), an interception return versus Auburn (49 yards), a punt return versus Auburn (57 yards), and a 98 yard kick-off return for a touchdown versus Oklahoma State.
By the way, by comparison, Kansas State has 9 fewer plays from scrimmage for 20 or more yards than their competition, a mere 27 (Auburn 3, San Jose State 3, Missouri State 3, Texas 1, Kansas 2, Colorado 7, Oklahoma State 2, Baylor 6).
Monday, October 29, 2007
The Weekend Rewind
Kansas State 51 Baylor 13On a beautiful Saturday for tailgating, the Baylor Bears visited Kansas State for homecoming. The day started a bit chilly, but soon the parking lots filled up, flags were raised, the grills were lit, and the festivities began. Though the game was a 2:35 start, it was evident the crowd was not fired up for the game and expected an easy victory. Kansas State managed to gain four Baylor turnovers in the first half and held Baylor to four three and outs. A recipe for a huge day, right? Wrong. Though Kansas State had every advantage in the first half, the 'Cats could only manage a 16-6 lead--the football was not nearly as beautiful as the weather. Kansas State coach Ron Prince put it best when he said, "I think that was the worst half of football I have ever been associated with." So what did he say at halftime to spur on the troops? “I can’t repeat what I said,” Prince said. “It’s not appropriate. I was probably a little bit out of line.” Well, whatever he 
said, it worked, as Kansas State scored 21 points in the first nine minutes of the third quarter to put the game away, as Kansas State wins 51-13. Kansas State forced seven turnovers for the day, and the defense controlled the Baylor running game holding the Bears to 13 yards on 26 carries. On offense, Leon Patton led KSU in rushing with 113 yards on 17 carries. Kansas State jump started their rushing game, gaining 206 yards on a season high 46 carries. Josh Freeman, who had a horrible first half where he threw one interception but could have had as many as four, ended the day with 247 yards passing and three touchdowns. Perhaps the most surprising statistic of 
the day? Freeman rushing the ball 10 times for 19 yards, including several option plays. Simply bizarre! The big star of the game, of course, was Jordy Nelson. Jordy set a season season reception record by making his 76th catch of the season, surpassing the mark set by Darnell McDonald in 1998. On top of that, Jordy also passed 1,000 yards for the season, and he is well on his way to setting a single season record for yards as well. He also returned a punt 92 yards for a touchdown, his second punt return for a touchdown this year. Perhaps the most spectacular play he made though, was a one handed running grab of a pass on third down and seven yards to go. That does not seem so spectacular until you realize the ball was behind him. That should be an impossible catch to make. The People's Champ made it look routine and took the little crossing route 31 yards for a first down. Up next, Iowa State.
said, it worked, as Kansas State scored 21 points in the first nine minutes of the third quarter to put the game away, as Kansas State wins 51-13. Kansas State forced seven turnovers for the day, and the defense controlled the Baylor running game holding the Bears to 13 yards on 26 carries. On offense, Leon Patton led KSU in rushing with 113 yards on 17 carries. Kansas State jump started their rushing game, gaining 206 yards on a season high 46 carries. Josh Freeman, who had a horrible first half where he threw one interception but could have had as many as four, ended the day with 247 yards passing and three touchdowns. Perhaps the most surprising statistic of the day? Freeman rushing the ball 10 times for 19 yards, including several option plays. Simply bizarre! The big star of the game, of course, was Jordy Nelson. Jordy set a season season reception record by making his 76th catch of the season, surpassing the mark set by Darnell McDonald in 1998. On top of that, Jordy also passed 1,000 yards for the season, and he is well on his way to setting a single season record for yards as well. He also returned a punt 92 yards for a touchdown, his second punt return for a touchdown this year. Perhaps the most spectacular play he made though, was a one handed running grab of a pass on third down and seven yards to go. That does not seem so spectacular until you realize the ball was behind him. That should be an impossible catch to make. The People's Champ made it look routine and took the little crossing route 31 yards for a first down. Up next, Iowa State.Missouri 42 Iowa State 28 The Cyclones lose another tough game, this time on the road to the Missouri Tigers. Surprisingly, Iowa State outgained Missouri, but still couldn't find a way to win. Most teams do not go without a win during conference play. Iowa State could be dangerous for Kansas State this weekend.
Colorado 31 Texas Tech 26 The story of the game is quarterback Graham Harrell, who entering the Missouri game a week ago had three interceptions for the season. For the second week in a row, Harrell threw four interceptions. That's a recipe for disaster, and Texas Tech fell to Colorado for the second year in a row.
Kansas 19 Texas A&M 11 The Jayhawks moved to 8-0 on the season, exploding for 19 unanswered points in the second half in the defensive battle. KU has now won more than two Big 12 road games for the first time and won in a Texas city other than Waco for the first time (in Big 12 play). KU continues to play solid defense and fundamental football.
Texas 28 Nebraska 25 Nebraska played a good football for three quarters, then allowed Jamal Charles to rush for 216 yards in the fourth quarter. That's shocking.
Friday, October 26, 2007
Week 9-Big 12 Rankings and Predictions
Approximately halfway through the Big 12 season, things are becoming much clearer. Here is how the teams stack up (last week in parentheses) (overall record/Big 12 record):
1. Missouri (3) (6-1/2-1). Missouri dominated Texas Tech last weekend, holding the nation's number one scoring offense to 10 points. Missouri's defense has stepped up week after week and are becoming a force unto their own. If Missouri has a defense to compliment their outstanding offense, watch out. The Tigers can give anyone in the nation trouble on a neutral field.
2. Kansas (2) (7-0/3-0). Kansas did not come close to dominating the Buffaloes at Colorado. Kansas managed to play solid, assignment sound defense and made just enough plays to beat Colorado. CU is anything but a perfect team though. Kansas, while fundamentally a good football team, simply doesn't have the playmakers to survive undefeated much longer.
3. Oklahoma (1) (7-1/3-1). Oklahoma went to Iowa State and pulled out a 17-7 win in a game that was much closer than the final score indicates. Apparently OU simply is not a good road team; OU lost their first Big 12 road game at Colorado, and if the Cyclones had a half decent place kicker, OU might have been in a dogfight until the end versus the pathetic Iowa State unit. Oklahoma was anything but impressive.
4. Kansas State (4) (4-3/2-2). Kansas State is not perfect and needs to have turnovers and make special teams plays to win and win easily--but still are an improving team. Though the Wildcats lost to the Cowboys, every break went OSU's way. Kansas State has an improving offense, their best since 2002. If the defense learns to tackle and stop the run, K-State could beat anyone. I expect the 'Cats to win the next two games fairly easily.
5. Texas (6) (6-2/2-2). Texas did not have a particularly good showing versus Baylor. However, the Longhorns still managed to win by 21 in Waco. Texas continues their march through the dregs of the Big 12 versus Nebraska this week.
6. Oklahoma State (7) (5-3/3-1). The Cowboys have all kinds of dangerous weapons; however, OSU does not have much of a defense. Any team with those weapons at their disposal is a dangerous team however. That said, OSU was lucky to get two wins this year, using a large dose of luck to beat KSU and Texas Tech.
7. Texas Tech (5) (6-2/2-2). Texas Tech looked simply awful versus Missouri. Missouri confused and battered Texas Tech, which is what happens when you play superior teams on the road. Tech simply does not have th defensive talent or offensive balance to compete in the Big 12.
8. Texas A&M (9) (6-2/3-1). Texas A&M was the latest beneficiary of Nebraska's largesse. The Kansas game could be their last chance to win this year.
9. Colorado (8) (4-4/2-2). Better than last year, but still not good. Had an opportunity to beat Kansas but didn't take it.
10. Nebraska (10) (4-4/1-3). Defense is among the worst in the country. Offense is trying to get there.
11. Iowa State (12) (1-7/0-4). Bonus points for playing OU within 10.
12. Baylor (11) (3-5/0-4). They might be better than Nebraska, but for now, they are entrenched at 12.
1. Missouri (3) (6-1/2-1). Missouri dominated Texas Tech last weekend, holding the nation's number one scoring offense to 10 points. Missouri's defense has stepped up week after week and are becoming a force unto their own. If Missouri has a defense to compliment their outstanding offense, watch out. The Tigers can give anyone in the nation trouble on a neutral field.
2. Kansas (2) (7-0/3-0). Kansas did not come close to dominating the Buffaloes at Colorado. Kansas managed to play solid, assignment sound defense and made just enough plays to beat Colorado. CU is anything but a perfect team though. Kansas, while fundamentally a good football team, simply doesn't have the playmakers to survive undefeated much longer.
3. Oklahoma (1) (7-1/3-1). Oklahoma went to Iowa State and pulled out a 17-7 win in a game that was much closer than the final score indicates. Apparently OU simply is not a good road team; OU lost their first Big 12 road game at Colorado, and if the Cyclones had a half decent place kicker, OU might have been in a dogfight until the end versus the pathetic Iowa State unit. Oklahoma was anything but impressive.
4. Kansas State (4) (4-3/2-2). Kansas State is not perfect and needs to have turnovers and make special teams plays to win and win easily--but still are an improving team. Though the Wildcats lost to the Cowboys, every break went OSU's way. Kansas State has an improving offense, their best since 2002. If the defense learns to tackle and stop the run, K-State could beat anyone. I expect the 'Cats to win the next two games fairly easily.
5. Texas (6) (6-2/2-2). Texas did not have a particularly good showing versus Baylor. However, the Longhorns still managed to win by 21 in Waco. Texas continues their march through the dregs of the Big 12 versus Nebraska this week.
6. Oklahoma State (7) (5-3/3-1). The Cowboys have all kinds of dangerous weapons; however, OSU does not have much of a defense. Any team with those weapons at their disposal is a dangerous team however. That said, OSU was lucky to get two wins this year, using a large dose of luck to beat KSU and Texas Tech.
7. Texas Tech (5) (6-2/2-2). Texas Tech looked simply awful versus Missouri. Missouri confused and battered Texas Tech, which is what happens when you play superior teams on the road. Tech simply does not have th defensive talent or offensive balance to compete in the Big 12.
8. Texas A&M (9) (6-2/3-1). Texas A&M was the latest beneficiary of Nebraska's largesse. The Kansas game could be their last chance to win this year.
9. Colorado (8) (4-4/2-2). Better than last year, but still not good. Had an opportunity to beat Kansas but didn't take it.
10. Nebraska (10) (4-4/1-3). Defense is among the worst in the country. Offense is trying to get there.
11. Iowa State (12) (1-7/0-4). Bonus points for playing OU within 10.
12. Baylor (11) (3-5/0-4). They might be better than Nebraska, but for now, they are entrenched at 12.
Predictions
(last week 5-1 straight up, 2-4 ATS)
Kansas at Texas A&M (+3) Kansas has played two road games very close to the vest. This week, KU has to stop an outstanding running team in Texas A&M. A&M has several weapons, which will cause KU to play assignment sound and tackle. If the Jayhawks cannot tackle consistently, they will not be able to stop A&M, since there will be no one to back up the first level of defense. A&M bursts KU's bubble, winning straight up at Kyle Field.
Baylor at Kansas State (-25.5) See previous post. Kansas State covers easily. One additional reason why: Baylor doesn't cause turnovers and loves to cough the ball up.
Iowa State at Missouri (-28.5) Iowa State really has a halfway decent defense. Missouri doesn't tend to run the score up. Iowa State under Dan Hawkins traditionally gave Missouri fits, and even won last year in Ames. In a closer game than most expect, Iowa State hangs around, covering the spread. Don't worry Tiger fans, Gary Pinkel won't have to claim a win that's really a loss this year, even if they won't cover the spread.
Nebraska at Texas (-20.5) Nebraska has an awful defense, and their offense is getting worse. Bill Callahan is reportedly trying to work in some spread option this week with Joe Ganz. That's a mistake. Texas rolls and rolls big.
Colorado at Texas Tech (-13.5) Colorado beat Texas Tech last year. Wow! That was in Colorado. This week, the game is in Lubbock. Look for Mike Leach to take out some frustration on the Buffaloes, easily covering the spread.
Thursday, October 25, 2007
It's Baylor Week
Finally, this week should be easy. The key here is should be. It's homecoming week, and the Baylor Bears are the scheduled victim. It's probably a good choice. Baylor comes into the game on a four game losing streak in the Big 12, having lost to Texas A&M, Colorado, Kansas and Texas by an average score of 42-11. Baylor was particularly bad when they traveled outside the state of Texas, losing to Kansas 58-10. Even though the game appears to be a laugher in waiting, let's take a look at the Baylor Bears.
On offense, Baylor runs a spread offense, similar to the offense run by Texas Tech. However, the Bears' offense lacks the playmakers found on the Red Raiders' offense. There is no Graham Harrell, Michael Crabtree, or Danny Amendola. Baylor is ranked 82nd in total offense, garnering 357.0 yards per game and 103rd in scoring offense, averaging around 20 points per game. Breaking it down, the Bears' passing offense is 20th collecting almost 285 yards per game, but the running game is dreadful, as Baylor rushes for a meager 72 yards per game, which puts them at a solid 115th in the country. In an effort to spur the offense, Baylor head coach Guy Morriss benched the starting quarterback for the first seven games, Blake Szymanski. In his place, Morriss started Michael Machen against Texas, where he went 25 for 44 for 231 yards and one touchdown. He also threw three interceptions. Machen will make his first career road start versus Kansas State. The running game is worse than the passing game. Baylor's leading rusher is Brandon Whitaker, who has rushed for 251 yards and one touchdown. Jay Finley has fared little better, rushing for 184 yards and two touchdowns. Machen does not appear to be the rushing threat Szymanski is. Kansas State, whose defense has been bruised and battered the last three weeks, looks to get healthy against the anemic Baylor offense.
In Waco last year, Baylor held Kansas State to three points. Josh Freeman replaced Dylan Meier and saw his first significant college action, where he was simply awful. In that game in which Baylor won 17-3, Freeman replaced Meier to start the second half and was 11 for 33 for 196 yards and three interceptions. Oh what difference a year makes. This past weekend in the loss to Oklahoma State, Freeman threw for 404 yards, going 36 for 51 with three touchdowns and no interceptions. The Baylor defense hasn't been exactly salty all year, either. Baylor ranks 90th nationally in total defense, giving up 429 yards per game. It isn't a bend but don't break defense either, as Baylor allows a 93rd ranked 32 points per game. The Bears are equally bad at stopping the run and the pass, as Baylor allows an 80th ranked 173 yards per game rushing and 94th ranked 256 yards per game passing. That should allow Kansas State to have a balanced game plan, attacking the Baylor defense on both the ground and through the air.
Jordy Nelson should have another big day. Nelson, Kansas State's senior wide receiver, has 68 receptions for 903 yards and 6 touchdowns thus far this season. With seven catches, Nelson would tie Kansas State's single season record, currently held by Darnell McDonald. With 97 yards, Nelson would be the first receiver to gain 1,000 yards in a season since James Terry in 2003. Look for Nelson to get those seven catches and 97 yards sometime in the third quarter.
The Baylor special teams are anything but special. The Bears rank 111th in kick off returns, 64th in punt returns, and 88th in net punting. That's a recipe for disaster versus an angry Wildcat bunch.
Look for KSU to easily cover the spread.
On offense, Baylor runs a spread offense, similar to the offense run by Texas Tech. However, the Bears' offense lacks the playmakers found on the Red Raiders' offense. There is no Graham Harrell, Michael Crabtree, or Danny Amendola. Baylor is ranked 82nd in total offense, garnering 357.0 yards per game and 103rd in scoring offense, averaging around 20 points per game. Breaking it down, the Bears' passing offense is 20th collecting almost 285 yards per game, but the running game is dreadful, as Baylor rushes for a meager 72 yards per game, which puts them at a solid 115th in the country. In an effort to spur the offense, Baylor head coach Guy Morriss benched the starting quarterback for the first seven games, Blake Szymanski. In his place, Morriss started Michael Machen against Texas, where he went 25 for 44 for 231 yards and one touchdown. He also threw three interceptions. Machen will make his first career road start versus Kansas State. The running game is worse than the passing game. Baylor's leading rusher is Brandon Whitaker, who has rushed for 251 yards and one touchdown. Jay Finley has fared little better, rushing for 184 yards and two touchdowns. Machen does not appear to be the rushing threat Szymanski is. Kansas State, whose defense has been bruised and battered the last three weeks, looks to get healthy against the anemic Baylor offense.
In Waco last year, Baylor held Kansas State to three points. Josh Freeman replaced Dylan Meier and saw his first significant college action, where he was simply awful. In that game in which Baylor won 17-3, Freeman replaced Meier to start the second half and was 11 for 33 for 196 yards and three interceptions. Oh what difference a year makes. This past weekend in the loss to Oklahoma State, Freeman threw for 404 yards, going 36 for 51 with three touchdowns and no interceptions. The Baylor defense hasn't been exactly salty all year, either. Baylor ranks 90th nationally in total defense, giving up 429 yards per game. It isn't a bend but don't break defense either, as Baylor allows a 93rd ranked 32 points per game. The Bears are equally bad at stopping the run and the pass, as Baylor allows an 80th ranked 173 yards per game rushing and 94th ranked 256 yards per game passing. That should allow Kansas State to have a balanced game plan, attacking the Baylor defense on both the ground and through the air.
Jordy Nelson should have another big day. Nelson, Kansas State's senior wide receiver, has 68 receptions for 903 yards and 6 touchdowns thus far this season. With seven catches, Nelson would tie Kansas State's single season record, currently held by Darnell McDonald. With 97 yards, Nelson would be the first receiver to gain 1,000 yards in a season since James Terry in 2003. Look for Nelson to get those seven catches and 97 yards sometime in the third quarter.
The Baylor special teams are anything but special. The Bears rank 111th in kick off returns, 64th in punt returns, and 88th in net punting. That's a recipe for disaster versus an angry Wildcat bunch.
Look for KSU to easily cover the spread.
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
Football Recruiting Overview
Though we are moving into the middle of the football season, it's time to take a peek into the future of the Wildcats. As explained in the recruiting FAQ, a team may have a maximum of 85 scholarship athletes at any one time. It's not known how many players are on scholarship; however, my best guess is that 81 are on scholarship right now. It's also my best guess that 18 scholarship athletes will be leaving the program, which is based on seniors that will graduate. Of course, others could move on, but as of now, my best guess is that Kansas State will have 22 scholarships to offer this year. That number could be reduced by two, as greyshirt Jayson Cuba is expected to join the team in January, and Danny Hogan, who left the team in August for personal reasons, may rejoin the team.
Here is a breakdown, position group by position group (with class as of 2008 in parentheses, along with what I consider to be ideal):
Quarterbacks (3 on scholarship, 4-5 is ideal)
Josh Freeman (Jr.)
Carson Coffman (So.)
Tysyn Hartman (RFr.)
Running Backs (5 on scholarship, 5-6 ideal)
Leon Patton (Jr.)
John McCardle (Sr.)
Jeremy Reed (So.)
Dee Bell (RFr.)
Justin Woods (RFr.)
Tight Ends (3 on scholarship, 5 ideal)
Brett Alstatt (Sr.)
Jeron Mastrud (Jr.)
Jeremy Mack (RFr.)
Wide Receivers (5 on scholarship, 6-8 ideal)
Deon Murphy (Sr.)
Ernie Pierce (Sr.)
Cedric Wilson (Sr.)
Tony Purvis (RSo.)
LaMark Brown (So.)
Danny Hogan, who left the program for personal reasons, may be back as a true freshman.
Offensive Linemen (15 on scholarship, 16-18 ideal)
Jordan Bedore (Sr.)
Gerard Spexarth (Sr.)
Ben Liu (Sr.)
Alesana Alesana (Sr.)
Brad Rooker (Sr.)
Caleb Handy (Sr.)
Eric Benoit (RJr.) (I think he has a redshirt season available)
Nick Stringer (Jr.)
Trevor Viers (Jr.)
Brock Unruh (Jr.)
Zach Kendall (So.)
Kenneth Mayfield (So.)
Clyde Aufner (So.)
Kaleb Drinkgern (RFr.)
Colton Freeze (RFr.)
Defensive Ends (4 on scholarship, 6-7 ideal)
Vlad Faustin (Sr.)
Chidubamu Abana (Sr.)
Payton Kirk (RFr.)
Raphael Guidry (RFr.)
Nose Tackles (3 on scholarship, 4-5 ideal)
Brandon Balkcom (Sr.)
Gabe Crews (So.)
Xzavier Stewart (RFr.)
Inside Linebackers (5 on scholarship, 5-6 ideal)
Reggie Walker (Sr.)
Mac Rosel (Jr.)
John Houlik (Jr.)
Kevin Rohleder (So.)
Davyon McGhee (So.)
Jayson Cuba is a greyshirt, and will likely land here.
Outside Linebackers (6 on scholarship, 5-6 ideal)
Chris Patterson (Sr.)
Ian Campbell (Sr.)
Antwon Moore (Sr.) (perhaps a medical redshirt will be available)
Ross Diehl (Jr.)
Olu Hall (Jr.)
Eric Childs (Jr.)
Cornerbacks (4 on scholarship, 6-7 ideal)
Ray Cheatham (Sr.)
Otis Johnson (Jr.)
Joshua Moore (RSo.)
Kendrick Matthews (So.)
Safeties (6 on scholarship, 6-7 ideal)
Gary Chandler (Sr.)
Andrew Erker (Sr.)
Kevin Hollis (Jr.)
Chris Carney (Jr.)
Courtney Herndon (Jr.)
Dahrnaz Tigner (So.)
Specialists (4 on scholarship)
Brooks Rossman (Sr.)
Jared Parker (Sr.)
Josh Cherry (So.)
Corey Adams (So.)
Here is a breakdown, position group by position group (with class as of 2008 in parentheses, along with what I consider to be ideal):
Quarterbacks (3 on scholarship, 4-5 is ideal)
Josh Freeman (Jr.)
Carson Coffman (So.)
Tysyn Hartman (RFr.)
Running Backs (5 on scholarship, 5-6 ideal)
Leon Patton (Jr.)
John McCardle (Sr.)
Jeremy Reed (So.)
Dee Bell (RFr.)
Justin Woods (RFr.)
Tight Ends (3 on scholarship, 5 ideal)
Brett Alstatt (Sr.)
Jeron Mastrud (Jr.)
Jeremy Mack (RFr.)
Wide Receivers (5 on scholarship, 6-8 ideal)
Deon Murphy (Sr.)
Ernie Pierce (Sr.)
Cedric Wilson (Sr.)
Tony Purvis (RSo.)
LaMark Brown (So.)
Danny Hogan, who left the program for personal reasons, may be back as a true freshman.
Offensive Linemen (15 on scholarship, 16-18 ideal)
Jordan Bedore (Sr.)
Gerard Spexarth (Sr.)
Ben Liu (Sr.)
Alesana Alesana (Sr.)
Brad Rooker (Sr.)
Caleb Handy (Sr.)
Eric Benoit (RJr.) (I think he has a redshirt season available)
Nick Stringer (Jr.)
Trevor Viers (Jr.)
Brock Unruh (Jr.)
Zach Kendall (So.)
Kenneth Mayfield (So.)
Clyde Aufner (So.)
Kaleb Drinkgern (RFr.)
Colton Freeze (RFr.)
Defensive Ends (4 on scholarship, 6-7 ideal)
Vlad Faustin (Sr.)
Chidubamu Abana (Sr.)
Payton Kirk (RFr.)
Raphael Guidry (RFr.)
Nose Tackles (3 on scholarship, 4-5 ideal)
Brandon Balkcom (Sr.)
Gabe Crews (So.)
Xzavier Stewart (RFr.)
Inside Linebackers (5 on scholarship, 5-6 ideal)
Reggie Walker (Sr.)
Mac Rosel (Jr.)
John Houlik (Jr.)
Kevin Rohleder (So.)
Davyon McGhee (So.)
Jayson Cuba is a greyshirt, and will likely land here.
Outside Linebackers (6 on scholarship, 5-6 ideal)
Chris Patterson (Sr.)
Ian Campbell (Sr.)
Antwon Moore (Sr.) (perhaps a medical redshirt will be available)
Ross Diehl (Jr.)
Olu Hall (Jr.)
Eric Childs (Jr.)
Cornerbacks (4 on scholarship, 6-7 ideal)
Ray Cheatham (Sr.)
Otis Johnson (Jr.)
Joshua Moore (RSo.)
Kendrick Matthews (So.)
Safeties (6 on scholarship, 6-7 ideal)
Gary Chandler (Sr.)
Andrew Erker (Sr.)
Kevin Hollis (Jr.)
Chris Carney (Jr.)
Courtney Herndon (Jr.)
Dahrnaz Tigner (So.)
Specialists (4 on scholarship)
Brooks Rossman (Sr.)
Jared Parker (Sr.)
Josh Cherry (So.)
Corey Adams (So.)
Tuesday, October 23, 2007
Recruiting FAQ
Ok, it's almost hardcore recruiting season. People always have questions, so here are some answers to commonly asked questions. If anyone wants another question answered, post a comment or send an e-mail.
1. When is signing day?
There are several signing periods; there is no "signing day." For junior college mid-year football transfers, the signing period is December 19, 2007, until January 15, 2008. The general signing period is from February 6, 2008, until April 1, 2008. If anyone is curious, basketball has two signing periods. The early period is November 14-21, 2007, and the regular period is April 16, 2008, until May 21, 2008.
The "signing date" is ONLY associated with the signing of a National Letter of Intent, which is binding on the player and the school. Schools may make non-binding scholarship agreements at any time.
For more information and a full calendar of signing dates, see the national letter of intent site.
2. What is a letter of intent?
Courtesy the National Letter of Intent website:
By signing a National Letter of Intent, a prospective student-athlete agrees to attend the designated college or university for one academic year. Pursuant to the terms of the National Letter of Intent program, participating institutions agree to provide athletics financial aid for one academic year to the student-athlete, provided he/she is admitted to the institution and is eligible for financial aid under NCAA rules. An important provision of the National Letter of Intent program is a recruiting prohibition applied after a prospective student-athlete signs a Letter of Intent. This prohibition requires participating institutions cease recruitment of a prospective student-athlete once a National Letter of Intent is signed with another institution.
For more information, see the national letter of intent site.
3. When are quiet periods and dead periods?
For a full calendar of recruiting periods for football, see the NCAA Football Recruiting calendar.
For a full calendar of recruiting periods for basketball, see the NCAA Basketball Recruiting calendar.
Another helpful tool from the NCAA is a NCAA Recruiting Chart.
4. What is grayshirting?
From the National Letter of Intent website, “'Grayshirting' is a term used in the recruiting process to describe situations in which a student-athlete delays initial enrollment in a collegiate institution to the winter or spring term after the traditional academic year begins. Students who 'grayshirt' often use the fall to take classes part time or choose not to enroll in college at all. 'Grayshirting' is not a formal designation by the NCAA or the National Letter of Intent program."
5. What can I do?
In simplest terms, nothing. Please let the coaches recruit. Please do not contact recruits via facebook, myspace, e-mail, or in any other way. Also, Kansas State has a pamphlet for fans to read. Please read it and live by it. Don't endanger your school!
6. Where can I find more information from the NCAA?
There are several places. The first is an NCAA website. Second, check out bylaw 13 of the 2007-08 Division I Manual.
7. Can you explain the numbers thing? How many student-athletes can sign letters of intent?
I don't have a website for reference for you here, but I will explain. First, a division one football team may only have 85 student athletes on scholarship at any time. During each year, a school may aware 25 scholarships to new counters. (A walk-on in his second year or later would not be a new counter; a counter is any one of the 85 scholarships.) A school theoretically may sign as many as they want to, but may award only 25 scholarships (new counters) maximum. It's bad practice to over-sign and then not have the awards available. Another issue is count backs. Mid-year junior college players may "count back" to the previous years recruiting class if and only if the previous year did not have 25 new counters. Also, a school may not go over the 85 scholarship limit at any time.
8. What are the initial eligibility requirements?
Again, a website helps with that. Check out the NCAA clearinghouse for more information.
1. When is signing day?
There are several signing periods; there is no "signing day." For junior college mid-year football transfers, the signing period is December 19, 2007, until January 15, 2008. The general signing period is from February 6, 2008, until April 1, 2008. If anyone is curious, basketball has two signing periods. The early period is November 14-21, 2007, and the regular period is April 16, 2008, until May 21, 2008.
The "signing date" is ONLY associated with the signing of a National Letter of Intent, which is binding on the player and the school. Schools may make non-binding scholarship agreements at any time.
For more information and a full calendar of signing dates, see the national letter of intent site.
2. What is a letter of intent?
Courtesy the National Letter of Intent website:
By signing a National Letter of Intent, a prospective student-athlete agrees to attend the designated college or university for one academic year. Pursuant to the terms of the National Letter of Intent program, participating institutions agree to provide athletics financial aid for one academic year to the student-athlete, provided he/she is admitted to the institution and is eligible for financial aid under NCAA rules. An important provision of the National Letter of Intent program is a recruiting prohibition applied after a prospective student-athlete signs a Letter of Intent. This prohibition requires participating institutions cease recruitment of a prospective student-athlete once a National Letter of Intent is signed with another institution.
For more information, see the national letter of intent site.
3. When are quiet periods and dead periods?
For a full calendar of recruiting periods for football, see the NCAA Football Recruiting calendar.
For a full calendar of recruiting periods for basketball, see the NCAA Basketball Recruiting calendar.
Another helpful tool from the NCAA is a NCAA Recruiting Chart.
4. What is grayshirting?
From the National Letter of Intent website, “'Grayshirting' is a term used in the recruiting process to describe situations in which a student-athlete delays initial enrollment in a collegiate institution to the winter or spring term after the traditional academic year begins. Students who 'grayshirt' often use the fall to take classes part time or choose not to enroll in college at all. 'Grayshirting' is not a formal designation by the NCAA or the National Letter of Intent program."
5. What can I do?
In simplest terms, nothing. Please let the coaches recruit. Please do not contact recruits via facebook, myspace, e-mail, or in any other way. Also, Kansas State has a pamphlet for fans to read. Please read it and live by it. Don't endanger your school!
6. Where can I find more information from the NCAA?
There are several places. The first is an NCAA website. Second, check out bylaw 13 of the 2007-08 Division I Manual.
7. Can you explain the numbers thing? How many student-athletes can sign letters of intent?
I don't have a website for reference for you here, but I will explain. First, a division one football team may only have 85 student athletes on scholarship at any time. During each year, a school may aware 25 scholarships to new counters. (A walk-on in his second year or later would not be a new counter; a counter is any one of the 85 scholarships.) A school theoretically may sign as many as they want to, but may award only 25 scholarships (new counters) maximum. It's bad practice to over-sign and then not have the awards available. Another issue is count backs. Mid-year junior college players may "count back" to the previous years recruiting class if and only if the previous year did not have 25 new counters. Also, a school may not go over the 85 scholarship limit at any time.
8. What are the initial eligibility requirements?
Again, a website helps with that. Check out the NCAA clearinghouse for more information.
Saturday, October 20, 2007
Saturday Rewind
Oklahoma State 41 Kansas State 39. Well for the first time, I was spot on predicting the Kansas State loss. Ultimately, Kansas State was outplayed on special teams, giving up a huge kick off return for a touchdown immediately after taking a 14 point lead, letting OSU back into the game. Then, Kansas State ultimately couldn't handle success, and for the third time this season lost a close game where they had the lead, this time losing leads of 14-0 and 21-7, and also surrendered two fourth quarter leads. OSU stormed back to score 17 fourth quarter points and won the game when Kansas State could not stop them or hold onto the football. Jordy Nelson had an amazing day (12 catches for 174 yards and 3 TDs and a 2 point conversion), but simply could stave off the errors of Jeron Mastrud and Michael Pooschke, who both fumbled keeping Oklahoma State in the game. Kansas State also caught a bad break when a punted ball bounced into Cedric Wilson, against creating a turnover for the Cowboys. Josh Freeman rallied Kansas State in the closing minutes, similar to the game against Oklahoma State last year, and Kansas State took the lead with a minute remaining after making the two point conversion. The Kansas State defense collapsed and allowed OSU to march easily down the field for the game winning chip shot field goal.
Ultimately, Kansas State was not plus in the turnover ratio and/or touchdowns from defense/special teams, so they could not pull of a victory.
Kansas 19 Colorado 14. For the first time under Mark Mangino, Kansas wins two Big 12 road games. Kansas played suffocating defense, taking away Hugh Charles and Cody Hawkins could not do enough to overcome the loss of running game. Kansas impresses with their ability to tackle and how assignment sound they are. Fundamentally, Kansas is one of the best teams in the country. They will continue to be a tough out.
Oklahoma 17 Iowa State 7. In a shocker for how close it was, ISU went toe-to-toe with the Sooners, and if it weren't for an errant kicker, may have had a chance to pull out a win versus a superior opponent.
Texas 31 Baylor 10. The Bears kept the game close, but the Longhorns put them away late, pulling away for a 21 point win.
Texas A&M 36 Nebraska 14. Again, the vaunted Blackshirt defense of Nebraska couldn't stop the running game. Texas A&M had their way, rushing for 362 yards. Texas A&M cannot throw the ball, but since Nebraska simply cannot stop anyone, it became irrelevant as the Aggie running game completely dominated the Cornhuskers.
Missouri 41 Texas Tech 10. Graham Harrell had three interceptions going into the game, and left with seven. Missouri harassed the Red Raiders all day and kept them completely off balance. Missouri used a balanced rushing attack and dominated Texas Tech. It's not shocking that Missouri won, but it is shocking they won going away. It appears Missouri and Kansas will battle for the right to represent the Big 12 North in the Big 12 title game.
Ultimately, Kansas State was not plus in the turnover ratio and/or touchdowns from defense/special teams, so they could not pull of a victory.
Kansas 19 Colorado 14. For the first time under Mark Mangino, Kansas wins two Big 12 road games. Kansas played suffocating defense, taking away Hugh Charles and Cody Hawkins could not do enough to overcome the loss of running game. Kansas impresses with their ability to tackle and how assignment sound they are. Fundamentally, Kansas is one of the best teams in the country. They will continue to be a tough out.
Oklahoma 17 Iowa State 7. In a shocker for how close it was, ISU went toe-to-toe with the Sooners, and if it weren't for an errant kicker, may have had a chance to pull out a win versus a superior opponent.
Texas 31 Baylor 10. The Bears kept the game close, but the Longhorns put them away late, pulling away for a 21 point win.
Texas A&M 36 Nebraska 14. Again, the vaunted Blackshirt defense of Nebraska couldn't stop the running game. Texas A&M had their way, rushing for 362 yards. Texas A&M cannot throw the ball, but since Nebraska simply cannot stop anyone, it became irrelevant as the Aggie running game completely dominated the Cornhuskers.
Missouri 41 Texas Tech 10. Graham Harrell had three interceptions going into the game, and left with seven. Missouri harassed the Red Raiders all day and kept them completely off balance. Missouri used a balanced rushing attack and dominated Texas Tech. It's not shocking that Missouri won, but it is shocking they won going away. It appears Missouri and Kansas will battle for the right to represent the Big 12 North in the Big 12 title game.
Friday, October 19, 2007
Week 8-Big 12 Rankings and Predictions
We are three full weeks into Big 12 action, and this is how the teams shake out (last week in parentheses) (overall record/Big 12 record):
1. Oklahoma (3) (6-1/2-1). The Sooners came through with a big victory last Saturday, taking down the Missouri Tigers in Norman. Oklahoma surged to an early lead, Missouri showed their metal by responding, the Oklahoma capitalized on some Tiger mistakes and won going away, 41-31. While OU has not demonstrated an ability to play on the road, they have shown they are currently the class of the Big 12, even with the hiccup early against Colorado.
2. Kansas (2) (6-0/2-0). Kansas pummeled an overmatched Baylor squad. For the first time this year, the Jayhawks leave the state of Kansas. Though Colorado has been exposed, we will see if Kansas can deal with a little bit of adversity.
3. Missouri (1) (5-1/1-1). Missouri played the Sooners close for three quarters, then let the pressure get to them and allowed Oklahoma to take control late. Missouri still gets some credit for the road win versus Ole Miss and the neutral site win versus Illinois. This week provides a stern test with Texas Tech visiting. Missouri will be challenged by the Texas Tech offense, but has an opportunity to prove they belong in the nation's elite.
4. Kansas State (5) (4-2/2-1). The Wildcats used special teams and efficient if unspectacular offense to pull away from Colorado. Kansas State, who has 10 interceptions in their last three games, also used turnovers to open up the game against the Buffaloes. Josh Freeman again returned to his efficient form, limiting turnovers. When Kansas State eliminates turnovers, they are much more likely to win (no surprise I know). In the loss against Auburn, KSU had two interceptions and one fumble lost, and in the loss to Kansas, KSU had three interceptions. What's interesting, Auburn had two turnovers and Kansas had three. In their four wins, Kansas State has a grand total of three turnovers (two additional interceptions and one fumble lost), and in those four wins, the Wildcats have received nine turnovers. In the four wins, KSU has a +6 turnover margin, and in the 2 losses, KSU is -1. Additionally, in the two losses, KSU has no defensive or special teams touchdowns. In the the four wins, KSU has five special teams and defensive touchdowns. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that Kansas State needs to score on special teams and/or be in the plus column in turnover margin to win. Unfortunately, turnovers and special teams/defensive scores are more fickle than a steady offense. That's why Kansas State is so hard to predict.
5. Texas Tech (7) (6-1/2-1). Red Raider wide receiver Michael Crabtree is the freshman of the year. Not in the Big 12, in the nation. He's also an All-American. He's also a Heisman Trophy candidate and should win the Bilenikoff Award. After seven games, he has 78 receptions for 1,244 yards and 17 touchdowns. That's just ridiculous. Graham Harrell has 31 touchdown passes and three (yes, 3) interceptions. Ruffin McNeil is trying to turn around the defense, and held Texas A&M to seven points. Texas Tech is a dangerous team.
6. Texas (8) (5-2/1-2). Limas Sweed is done. Even with that, Iowa State makes everyone get better.
7. Oklahoma State (9) (4-3/2-1). Oklahoma State has an exceptionally dangerous offense with Zac Robinson, Dontrell Savage, and Adarius Bowman. It's a balanced offense that has the ability to score and control the game via the run or pass. Kansas State has their hands full Saturday.
8. Colorado (4) (4-3/2-1). Colorado got fat and sassy against Baylor, but that's not hard. Sure, they came from behind and took advantage of a youthful Sam Bradford and beat Oklahoma, but Kansas State exposed their weaknesses. The Buffaloes still don't have a great offense (though Hugh Charles is running very well) and their defense, even with several super studs including all everything Jordan Dizon, is susceptible to balanced offenses.
9. Texas A&M (6) (5-2/2-1). The Aggies are a mess. A&M is one dimensional on offense, and their defense is average at best. What's worse, the Aggies have one "easy" game left this year, at Nebraska. How is that for an enlightening statement?
10. Nebraska (10) (4-3/1-2). If the Aggies are a mess, I don't even know how to describe the meltdown in Lincoln. Oklahoma State rolled out to a 38-0 halftime lead. Nebraska has no offense, Nebraska has no defense, and Nebraska now has no athletic director. Former head coach and Congressman Tom Osborn has been brought in to try and shore up the cesspool that is Nebraska football.
11. Baylor (11) (3-4/0-3). The Bears are terrible.
12. Iowa State (12) (1-6/0-3). The Cyclones are worse.
1. Oklahoma (3) (6-1/2-1). The Sooners came through with a big victory last Saturday, taking down the Missouri Tigers in Norman. Oklahoma surged to an early lead, Missouri showed their metal by responding, the Oklahoma capitalized on some Tiger mistakes and won going away, 41-31. While OU has not demonstrated an ability to play on the road, they have shown they are currently the class of the Big 12, even with the hiccup early against Colorado.
2. Kansas (2) (6-0/2-0). Kansas pummeled an overmatched Baylor squad. For the first time this year, the Jayhawks leave the state of Kansas. Though Colorado has been exposed, we will see if Kansas can deal with a little bit of adversity.
3. Missouri (1) (5-1/1-1). Missouri played the Sooners close for three quarters, then let the pressure get to them and allowed Oklahoma to take control late. Missouri still gets some credit for the road win versus Ole Miss and the neutral site win versus Illinois. This week provides a stern test with Texas Tech visiting. Missouri will be challenged by the Texas Tech offense, but has an opportunity to prove they belong in the nation's elite.
4. Kansas State (5) (4-2/2-1). The Wildcats used special teams and efficient if unspectacular offense to pull away from Colorado. Kansas State, who has 10 interceptions in their last three games, also used turnovers to open up the game against the Buffaloes. Josh Freeman again returned to his efficient form, limiting turnovers. When Kansas State eliminates turnovers, they are much more likely to win (no surprise I know). In the loss against Auburn, KSU had two interceptions and one fumble lost, and in the loss to Kansas, KSU had three interceptions. What's interesting, Auburn had two turnovers and Kansas had three. In their four wins, Kansas State has a grand total of three turnovers (two additional interceptions and one fumble lost), and in those four wins, the Wildcats have received nine turnovers. In the four wins, KSU has a +6 turnover margin, and in the 2 losses, KSU is -1. Additionally, in the two losses, KSU has no defensive or special teams touchdowns. In the the four wins, KSU has five special teams and defensive touchdowns. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that Kansas State needs to score on special teams and/or be in the plus column in turnover margin to win. Unfortunately, turnovers and special teams/defensive scores are more fickle than a steady offense. That's why Kansas State is so hard to predict.
5. Texas Tech (7) (6-1/2-1). Red Raider wide receiver Michael Crabtree is the freshman of the year. Not in the Big 12, in the nation. He's also an All-American. He's also a Heisman Trophy candidate and should win the Bilenikoff Award. After seven games, he has 78 receptions for 1,244 yards and 17 touchdowns. That's just ridiculous. Graham Harrell has 31 touchdown passes and three (yes, 3) interceptions. Ruffin McNeil is trying to turn around the defense, and held Texas A&M to seven points. Texas Tech is a dangerous team.
6. Texas (8) (5-2/1-2). Limas Sweed is done. Even with that, Iowa State makes everyone get better.
7. Oklahoma State (9) (4-3/2-1). Oklahoma State has an exceptionally dangerous offense with Zac Robinson, Dontrell Savage, and Adarius Bowman. It's a balanced offense that has the ability to score and control the game via the run or pass. Kansas State has their hands full Saturday.
8. Colorado (4) (4-3/2-1). Colorado got fat and sassy against Baylor, but that's not hard. Sure, they came from behind and took advantage of a youthful Sam Bradford and beat Oklahoma, but Kansas State exposed their weaknesses. The Buffaloes still don't have a great offense (though Hugh Charles is running very well) and their defense, even with several super studs including all everything Jordan Dizon, is susceptible to balanced offenses.
9. Texas A&M (6) (5-2/2-1). The Aggies are a mess. A&M is one dimensional on offense, and their defense is average at best. What's worse, the Aggies have one "easy" game left this year, at Nebraska. How is that for an enlightening statement?
10. Nebraska (10) (4-3/1-2). If the Aggies are a mess, I don't even know how to describe the meltdown in Lincoln. Oklahoma State rolled out to a 38-0 halftime lead. Nebraska has no offense, Nebraska has no defense, and Nebraska now has no athletic director. Former head coach and Congressman Tom Osborn has been brought in to try and shore up the cesspool that is Nebraska football.
11. Baylor (11) (3-4/0-3). The Bears are terrible.
12. Iowa State (12) (1-6/0-3). The Cyclones are worse.
Predictions
(last week 5-1 straight up, 3-3 ats)
Oklahoma at Iowa State (+30) That is a lot of points to lay on the road, but well worth it. OU covers in a cake walk.
Texas Tech at Missouri (-3.5) Texas Tech has an outstanding offense, with many different weapons. Missouri is without leading rusher Tony Temple, which causes them to look more like Texas Tech. These teams aren't mirror images--Texas Tech has superior receivers, Missouri has superior tight ends. Missouri is more battle tested and at home. I expect Missouri to pull out a close one at home, winning by around 4-7 points. Missouri covers a back an forth offensive shootout. Oh, and the over/under is 75. Bet the over.
Texas A&M at Nebraska (-2) I don't think that Texas A&M is a good team. I don't think Nebraska is a good team. Both are riddled with deficiencies. Nebraska cannot stop the run, Texas A&M can run but cannot pass. Nebraska won't have many more opportunities to win, and Texas A&M has looked beyond awful on the road. Nebraska gets a little better this week, wnning a close game over the Aggies, but enough to cover the spread.
Texas at Baylor (+24.5) I hate laying that many points on the road, but Baylor is terrible and Texas is finding themselves. This will be more akin to the Texas game last weekend, where UT won by 53. Texas covers.
Kansas at Colorado (+4) Colorado has two true freshmen on their offensive line, and Kansas has a couple get defensive linemen. I expect the Jayhawks to control the Buffalo running game and force Cody Hawkins into putting the ball in the air. That's not good for Colorado. KU will be able to spread the ball around, running and passing. The game stay close for a half, and Kansas pulls away for a double digit win in the second half. I know that Mark Mangino has never finished above 3-5 in the Big 12, and has never won two road conference game in a season, but things change. This year, throw those old trends out the window. The Jayhawks are for real.
Kansas State at Oklahoma State (-2.5) See earlier analysis. Oklahoma State covers, unless KSU is +2 or better in combined turnovers and returns for touchdowns. OSU doesn't turn the ball over and will negate the big returns by KSU. Oklahoma State wins by around 6.
Thursday, October 18, 2007
Going to Kansas City-Basketball Preview
Big 12 Media Days for basketball were held in Kansas City over the last couple days, as Kansas City will be the host of the Big 12 Men's and Women's tournaments this spring. Particularly in men's basketball, this appears to be an exciting season coming up. The three local teams, Missouri, Kansas, and Kansas State, all appear poised to make improvements and significant runs. It's time now for me to make my preseason predictions and name my pre-season Big 12 team. It should be a tough, hard fought race during the Big 12 season, and many teams have outstanding performers. From Kansas to Colorado, every team has an excellent player or two, or even three. But let's start with a preview of the Big 12 men's basketball programs, one through twelve.1. Kansas. As you all know, I don't like Kansas. It's my job to dislike the squawks, and I do. Kansas has NEVER lost in Bramlage Coliseum and that's an embarassment. That said, I cannot let my loathing cloud my judgment, and Kansas is the clear number one choice. Kansas went to the Elite 8 last year and lost only one player of note, Julien Wright. KU returns an outstanding corps of players, including Shady Arthur, Sasha Kaun, Darnell Jackson, and Russell Robinson. The only question is how Brandon Rush, who suffered a torn ACL, will respond. He will return to the KU lineup around December 1. If he returns with his old form, KU is a legitimate national title contender and certainly a top five team. I hate to say it, but it just is true.
2. Texas. I know they lost Kevin Durant. I don't care. That team may actually be better. They have one of the two best point guards in the conference with D.J. Augustin. Texas will be a more balanced team this year, since they simply can't wait for Durant to win the game. I expect Texas's youngsters to take a giant step and play outstanding ball this year.
3. Missouri. Missouri has the other outstanding point guard in the conference, Stefon Hannah. Hannah will do an outstanding job leading the 40 minutes of hell that Mike Anderson is trying to get Missouri to play. DeMarre Carroll, a transfer from Vanderbilt, will help on the boards. There is a bit of addition from subtraction, as Anderson kicked Kalen Grimes off the team.
4. Kansas State.
Kansas State is led by senior leadership of Clent Stewart and David Hoskins, along with Blake Young, who has gotten some of his hops back after suffering and playing with a hurt knee last year. Add to that mix what some have called the best recruiting class in America, and KSU is loaded with potential. Michael Beasley, Billy Walker, and Jacob Pullen give Kansas State more weapons than they have ever had, perhaps. The question is how Kansas State melds the old with the new, and how the team responds to first time head coach Frank Martin. Kansas State has undeniable talent, but sometimes talent isn't enough. Texas last year finished 3rd in the Big 12 with an established head coach to go along with their young guns. Until Frank Martin proves he can coach and these youngsters prove they can play, Kansas State can be no higher than 4th.5. Texas A&M. Mark Turgeon takes over the program, and he takes over a program that is on solid footing. Though Acie Law left, Billy Gillispie did not leave the cupboard bare. Joseph Jones returns and DeAndre Jordan will provide a solid anchor down load for the Aggies. Texas A&M, when they gel, will be oustanding.
6. Baylor. Scott Drew (and his new baby) have a very solid front court. Curtis Jerrells is an outstanding guard and will lead Baylor to a top half finish. That's amazing for a program that was on the edge of disaster just a few years ago.
7. Texas Tech. Tech loses their best player, but it's hard to count out Bobby Knight. Martin Zeno will be the center of the Texas Tech offense, and Coach Knight will have to figure out ways to get something out of his incoming freshmen.
8. Oklahoma. Jeff Capel did a good job trying to overcome the mess left by Kelvin Sampson. If there was an all name team, Longar Longar would certainly be first team. And along with a great name, he's got game.
9. Nebraska. Doc Sadler has perhaps the best big man in the conference, Aleks Maric. The big fella is an outstanding scorer. He will have some help from transfer Jeremy Barr. Sadler's teams play hard nosed defense and certainly could surprise some teams this year.
10. Oklahoma State. OSU is a complete question mark, as there are seven newcomers on the team. 10th is perhaps too high to start them.
11. Colorado. New coach Jeff Bzdelik found a way to turn Air Force--AIR FORCE--into a winner, and he will get Colorado to win too. He does have one outstanding player in Richard Roby, who was forced to try and do too much last year. This year, Bzdelik will have the team playing much more disciplined ball and will have Roby freed up for better looks. Colorado will definitely surprise people this year.
12. Iowa State. Mike Taylor, ISU's best and most dangerous player, was kicked off the team by coach Greg McDermott. ISU will find it very difficult to dig its way out of the cellar.
D.J. Augustin-Texas
Joseph Jones-Texas A&M
Stefon Hannah-Missouri
Michael Beasley-Kansas State
All Big 12 Second Team
Billy Walker-Kansas State
Darrell Arthur-Kansas
Aleks Maric-Nebraska
Richard Roby-Colorado
Martin Zeno-Texas Tech
All Big 12 Third Team
Curtis Jerrells-Baylor
A.J. Abrams-Texas
David Hoskins-Kansas State
Russell Robinson-Kansas
Shearron Collins-Kansas
Shearron Collins-Kansas
Player of the Year-Stefon Hannah
Freshman of the Year-Michael Beasley
Newcomer of the Year-DeMarre Carroll, Mizzou
Wednesday, October 17, 2007
Breaking Down Oklahoma State
I have a problem. I simply refuse to drink purple kool-aid. There are those that say that I am an alumnus of Insecurity U., but I don't think so. The Kansas State football team has holes; it is not a perfect team. The offense is limited, and the defense has difficulty tackling and blows coverages upon occasion. The special teams are very good, but the advantage they provide can be minimized by a smart coach. That's just a general sketch of the K-State football team. Some people look at Oklahoma State and see the team that Troy beat soundly. I look at the Oklahoma State team and see a very solid team, one that should be 4-0 since that debacle.
Anyway, on to the breakdown:
Offense: Okie State runs the spread option a la West Virginia. They are not a true spread team, but they do spread you out. I know they were awful against UGA and Troy, but Bobby Reid was the quarterback running the show against UGA, and the Bulldogs didn't respect the pass at all, which makes sense because Reid is awful at throwing the ball. Georgia attacked the line of scrimmage, sacking Reid 5 times (OSU has given up 2 sacks since that game). Also their best running back, Dantrell Savage, didn't play much because of injury that day. He ran 10 times for 55 yards. Georgia was able to control the game because of the offensive system OSU had. So, OSU made changes.
Against Troy, Zac Robinson made his first start on the road and just wasn't very good. Robinson replaced Reid and started the week before against Florida Atlantic and was fine, but he had issues against at Troy, throwing a couple interceptions and missing on his passes. Without much OSU offense, Omar Haugabook lit up the OSU defense and Troy won going away. Savage did not play in either the FAU or Troy games.
After the Troy game, Savage came back and has four straight 100 yard games, including a 200+ yard outburst versus the Nebraska defense. It doesn't end with Savage; OSU has three good runners, Savage, Kendall Hunter and Robinson, and Keith Totson isn't bad either. They all can make plays running the ball. There is a reason they are 6th in the nation rushing.
Robinson can throw the ball too, as he is 90/154/6 with ten touchdowns (twice as many as Josh Freeman with fewer interceptions). Teams have to respect the pass because Robinson can actually complete them to their good receivers, Adarius Bowman and Brandon Pettigrew. Oklahoma State is starting to achieve the balance and promise they had before the season.
OSU is a VERY dangerous offensive team.
Defense: Oklahoma State has a fairly pedestrian defense, though I will say that OSU's defensive stats are pretty skewed from their game against Texas Tech. Their rushing defense gives up 122 yards per game, which is 35th in the nation and 6th in the big 12. Their passing defense is 112th, giving up 294 yards per game, and they give up 416 yards per game (82nd nationally and 10th in the Big 12).
But let's look at the numbers without the Texas Tech debacle. Remember, they gave up 718 yards of total offense and 646 yards of passing to Texas Tech. Egads. The other games: Georgia had 376 total yards/234 yards passing, FAU had 203 total yards/175 yards passing, Troy did have 562 total yards/388 yards passing, Sam Houston had 355 total yards/270 yards passing, TAMU had 368 total yards/218 yards passing, and Nebraska had 335 total yards/129 yards passing. Those 6 games average to 366.5 total ypg. The TTU game skews their total yards per game by 50 yards! OSU would have the 53/54 ranked defense absent the TTUgame. Those 6 games average 235.67 yards passing per game. You can see how much it is skewed by one game, about 60 yards per game. That would be the 70th rated passing defense. Now, those numbers aren't great, but they aren't the horrible numbers that people make OSU out to be. Not at all. They have a halfway decent, not great or good, but decent defense.
Their weakness is pass defense, and while KSU's passing game is better, it's not fantastic. KSU throws for about 264 yards per game, which is in the 30s nationally. KSU's rushing offense is still fairly anemic. Don't get me wrong, I think KSU will score points, but KSU doesn't run a spread offense like Troy and TTU, so I don't think Kansas State will go crazy like Troy and TTU. Some people believe that we will come out throwing and rack up 400 some yards passing. That's simply a pipe dream. Kansas State throws for 264 yards per game and has done so against Auburn (289 yards versus the 12th ranked pass defense), San Jose State (272 yards/71st), Missouri State (325 yards/89th in Division 1-AA), Texas (177 yards/38th), Kansas (310 yards/7th), and Colorado (214 yards/39th). In other words, KSU doesn't throw for 400 yards against anyone. K-State won't throw for that many yards against OSU either. K-State is more likely to throw for around 275 yards than 400.
Special Teams: Statistically, OSU is not very good at kickoff returns, which is good. Make OSU go more yards. OSU is so-so at punt returns. OSU's net punting sucks. But even if Oklahoma State's special teams aren't great, they can follow the lead of Kansas' Mark Mangino and take that advantage away from KSU by kicking the ball out of bounds and directionally kick the ball. It was smart of Mangino to suck it up and take away our return game. The blocked punt KSU got against Colorado, I won't even count because that was the fault of CU's punter; KSU wasn't even going for a block, he just bobbled the ball. That was fortuitous. KSU hasn't blocked a kick other than that this year.
Point is, our offense isn't great, their defense isn't great. We will score points. Their offense is pretty darn good, on the other hand, and I think they will score some points. Special teams can be negated to some extent. I think they would rather KSU's offense be forced to move the ball and not let the special teams, even if it costs them some yards. Oh, and they don't throw a ton of INTs and give up VERY few sacks. Their offense will be a handful.
In a back and forth close game, I look for Oklahoma State to avenge last year's loss and win by around 6 points.
Anyway, on to the breakdown:
Offense: Okie State runs the spread option a la West Virginia. They are not a true spread team, but they do spread you out. I know they were awful against UGA and Troy, but Bobby Reid was the quarterback running the show against UGA, and the Bulldogs didn't respect the pass at all, which makes sense because Reid is awful at throwing the ball. Georgia attacked the line of scrimmage, sacking Reid 5 times (OSU has given up 2 sacks since that game). Also their best running back, Dantrell Savage, didn't play much because of injury that day. He ran 10 times for 55 yards. Georgia was able to control the game because of the offensive system OSU had. So, OSU made changes.
Against Troy, Zac Robinson made his first start on the road and just wasn't very good. Robinson replaced Reid and started the week before against Florida Atlantic and was fine, but he had issues against at Troy, throwing a couple interceptions and missing on his passes. Without much OSU offense, Omar Haugabook lit up the OSU defense and Troy won going away. Savage did not play in either the FAU or Troy games.
After the Troy game, Savage came back and has four straight 100 yard games, including a 200+ yard outburst versus the Nebraska defense. It doesn't end with Savage; OSU has three good runners, Savage, Kendall Hunter and Robinson, and Keith Totson isn't bad either. They all can make plays running the ball. There is a reason they are 6th in the nation rushing.
Robinson can throw the ball too, as he is 90/154/6 with ten touchdowns (twice as many as Josh Freeman with fewer interceptions). Teams have to respect the pass because Robinson can actually complete them to their good receivers, Adarius Bowman and Brandon Pettigrew. Oklahoma State is starting to achieve the balance and promise they had before the season.
OSU is a VERY dangerous offensive team.
Defense: Oklahoma State has a fairly pedestrian defense, though I will say that OSU's defensive stats are pretty skewed from their game against Texas Tech. Their rushing defense gives up 122 yards per game, which is 35th in the nation and 6th in the big 12. Their passing defense is 112th, giving up 294 yards per game, and they give up 416 yards per game (82nd nationally and 10th in the Big 12).
But let's look at the numbers without the Texas Tech debacle. Remember, they gave up 718 yards of total offense and 646 yards of passing to Texas Tech. Egads. The other games: Georgia had 376 total yards/234 yards passing, FAU had 203 total yards/175 yards passing, Troy did have 562 total yards/388 yards passing, Sam Houston had 355 total yards/270 yards passing, TAMU had 368 total yards/218 yards passing, and Nebraska had 335 total yards/129 yards passing. Those 6 games average to 366.5 total ypg. The TTU game skews their total yards per game by 50 yards! OSU would have the 53/54 ranked defense absent the TTUgame. Those 6 games average 235.67 yards passing per game. You can see how much it is skewed by one game, about 60 yards per game. That would be the 70th rated passing defense. Now, those numbers aren't great, but they aren't the horrible numbers that people make OSU out to be. Not at all. They have a halfway decent, not great or good, but decent defense.
Their weakness is pass defense, and while KSU's passing game is better, it's not fantastic. KSU throws for about 264 yards per game, which is in the 30s nationally. KSU's rushing offense is still fairly anemic. Don't get me wrong, I think KSU will score points, but KSU doesn't run a spread offense like Troy and TTU, so I don't think Kansas State will go crazy like Troy and TTU. Some people believe that we will come out throwing and rack up 400 some yards passing. That's simply a pipe dream. Kansas State throws for 264 yards per game and has done so against Auburn (289 yards versus the 12th ranked pass defense), San Jose State (272 yards/71st), Missouri State (325 yards/89th in Division 1-AA), Texas (177 yards/38th), Kansas (310 yards/7th), and Colorado (214 yards/39th). In other words, KSU doesn't throw for 400 yards against anyone. K-State won't throw for that many yards against OSU either. K-State is more likely to throw for around 275 yards than 400.
Special Teams: Statistically, OSU is not very good at kickoff returns, which is good. Make OSU go more yards. OSU is so-so at punt returns. OSU's net punting sucks. But even if Oklahoma State's special teams aren't great, they can follow the lead of Kansas' Mark Mangino and take that advantage away from KSU by kicking the ball out of bounds and directionally kick the ball. It was smart of Mangino to suck it up and take away our return game. The blocked punt KSU got against Colorado, I won't even count because that was the fault of CU's punter; KSU wasn't even going for a block, he just bobbled the ball. That was fortuitous. KSU hasn't blocked a kick other than that this year.
Point is, our offense isn't great, their defense isn't great. We will score points. Their offense is pretty darn good, on the other hand, and I think they will score some points. Special teams can be negated to some extent. I think they would rather KSU's offense be forced to move the ball and not let the special teams, even if it costs them some yards. Oh, and they don't throw a ton of INTs and give up VERY few sacks. Their offense will be a handful.
In a back and forth close game, I look for Oklahoma State to avenge last year's loss and win by around 6 points.
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
Mid-Season Predictions
Ok, so now everyone in the Big 12 has played either 6 or 7 games. We have a pretty good idea about the strengths and weaknesses of each team. It's time for the mid-season predictions.
Big 12 North
Kansas 10-2/6-2
Kansas State 9-3/6-2
Missouri 10-2/6-2
Colorado 6-6/4-4
Nebraska 5-7/2-6
Iowa State 1-11/0-8
Big 12 South
Oklahoma 11-1/7-1
Oklahoma State 7-5/5-3
Texas Tech 9-3/5-3
Texas 9-3/5-3
Texas A&M 5-7/2-6
Baylor 3-9/0-8
The Big 12 North could easily have a three-way tie. Here are the tie-breakers, courtesy Brian Gates of GoPowercat.com:
Here is the tie breaker procedure in the event of a three-way tie:
If three or more teams are tied, steps 1 through 7 will be followed until a determination is made. If only two teams remain tied after any step, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative.
1. The records of the three teams will be compared against each other;
2. The records of the three teams will be compared within their division;
3. The records of the three teams will be compared against the next highest placed teams in their division in order of finish - 4, 5 and 6;
4. The records of the three teams will be compared against all common conference opponents;
5. The highest ranked team in the first Bowl Championship Series Poll following the completion of Big 12 regular-season (intra-) conference play shall be the representative;
6. The team with the best overall winning percentage [excluding exempted games - e.g. 12th games such as Kickoff Classic, Pigskin Classic, Hawaii, etc.] shall be the representative;
7. The representative will be chosen by draw.
Big 12 North
Kansas 10-2/6-2
Kansas State 9-3/6-2
Missouri 10-2/6-2
Colorado 6-6/4-4
Nebraska 5-7/2-6
Iowa State 1-11/0-8
Big 12 South
Oklahoma 11-1/7-1
Oklahoma State 7-5/5-3
Texas Tech 9-3/5-3
Texas 9-3/5-3
Texas A&M 5-7/2-6
Baylor 3-9/0-8
The Big 12 North could easily have a three-way tie. Here are the tie-breakers, courtesy Brian Gates of GoPowercat.com:
Here is the tie breaker procedure in the event of a three-way tie:
If three or more teams are tied, steps 1 through 7 will be followed until a determination is made. If only two teams remain tied after any step, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative.
1. The records of the three teams will be compared against each other;
2. The records of the three teams will be compared within their division;
3. The records of the three teams will be compared against the next highest placed teams in their division in order of finish - 4, 5 and 6;
4. The records of the three teams will be compared against all common conference opponents;
5. The highest ranked team in the first Bowl Championship Series Poll following the completion of Big 12 regular-season (intra-) conference play shall be the representative;
6. The team with the best overall winning percentage [excluding exempted games - e.g. 12th games such as Kickoff Classic, Pigskin Classic, Hawaii, etc.] shall be the representative;
7. The representative will be chosen by draw.
Sunday, October 14, 2007
Mid-Season Report
Big 12 North
Colorado (4-3/2-1)
Sagarin rating 39
Billingsley Report 65
Wolfe computer rating 31
RealTimeRPI.com 49
Colorado State (0-6) 31-28 ot (in Denver)
@Arizona State (7-0) 14-33
Florida State (4-2) 6-16
Miami (OH) (4-3) 42-0
Oklahoma (6-1) 27-24
@Baylor (3-4) 43-23
@Kansas State (4-2) 20-47
Rushing Offense 142.71 ypg (74th nationally/8th in Big 12)
Passing Offense 241.43 ypg (46/9)
Total Offense 384.14 ypg (67/10)
Scoring Offense 26.14 ppg (66/10)
Rushing Defense 122.29 ypg (34/5)
Passing Defense 207.86 ypg (39/4)
Total Defense 330.14 ypg (34/5)
Scoring Defense 24.43 ppg (47/8)
Star Player: Jordan Dizon, 1st nationally in tackles per game.
Iowa State (1-6/0-3)
Sagarin Rating 123
Billingsley Report 89
Wolfe computer rating 130
RealTimeRPI.com 141
Kent State (3-4) 14-23
Northern Iowa (6-0) 13-24
Iowa (3-4) 15-13
@Toledo (2-5) 35-36
@Nebraska (4-3) 17-35
@Texas Tech (6-1) 17-42
Texas (5-2) 3-56
Rushing Offense 129.00 ypg (85th nationally/10th in Big 12)
Passing Offense 204.14 ypg (80/11)
Total Offense 333.14 ypg (99/12)
Scoring Offense 16.29 ppg (115/12)
Rushing Defense 133.86 ypg(39/7)
Passing Defense 236.43 ypg (70/6)
Total Defense 370.29 ypg (55/7)
Scoring Defense 32.71 ppg (93/12)
Kansas (6-0/2-0)
Sagarin Rating 4
Billingsley Report 25
Wolfe computer rating 10
RealTimeRPI.com 13
USA Today Coaches’ Poll 15
Associated Press Poll 15
Harris Interactive 15
BCS 13
Central Michigan (4-3) 52-7
Southeast Louisiana (2-4) 62-0
Toledo (2-5) 45-13
Florida International (0-6) 55-3
@Kansas State (4-2) 30-24
Baylor (3-4) 58-10
Rushing Offense 218.83 ypg (13th nationally/3rd in Big 12)
Passing Offense 297.00 ypg (16/3)
Total Offense 515.83 ypg (7/3)
Scoring Offense 50.33 ppg (2/1)
Rushing Defense 80 ypg (8/2)
Passing Defense 160 ypg (7/1)
Total Defense 240 ypg (4/1)
Scoring Defense 9.5 ppg (2/1)
Of note, Kansas is 1st nationally in kick off returns, 6th nationally in turnover margin, and 7th nationally in tackles for loss.
Star Players: Marcus Herford, 3rd in the nation in kickoff returns; Joe Mortenson, top 10 in the nation in tackles for loss.
Kansas State (4-2/2-1)
Sagarin Rating 14
Billingsley Report 42
Wolfe computer rating 22
RealTimeRPI.com 28
USA Today Coaches’ Poll RV (30th)
Associated Press Poll 25
Harris Interactive RV (30th)
BCS 26
@Auburn (5-2) 13-23
San Jose State (3-4) 34-14
Missouri State (4-3) 61-10
@Texas (5-2) 41-21
Kansas (6-0) 24-30
Colorado (4-3) 47-20
Rushing Offense 133.00 ypg (82nd nationally/9th in Big 12)
Passing Offense 264.50 ypg (36/8)
Total Offense 397.50 ypg (53/9)
Scoring Offense 36.67 ppg (19/5)
Rushing Defense 112.50 ypg (31/4)
Passing Defense 213.00 ypg (49/5)
Total Defense 325.50 ypg (31/4)
Scoring Defense 19.67 ppg (27/3)
Of note, Kansas State is 1st nationally in punt returns, 11th nationally in sacks, and 3rd nationally in sacks allowed.
Star Players: Jordy Nelson, 3rd nationally in receptions per game/4th nationally in receiving yards per game; Tim Reyer, 8th nationally in punting; Brooks Rossman, 2nd nationally in field goals/9th nationally in scoring; and Deon Murphy, 13th nationally in punt returns.
Missouri (6-1/1-1)
Sagarin Rating 16
Billingsley Report 21
Wolfe computer rating 13
RealTimeRPI.com 11
USA Today Coaches’ Poll 17
Associated Press Poll 15 (tie)
Harris Interactive 17
BCS 16
Illinois (5-2) 40-34 (in St. Louis)
@Mississippi (2-5) 38-25
Western Michigan (3-4) 52-24
Illinois State (3-4) 38-17
Nebraska (4-3) 41-6
@Oklahoma (6-1) 31-41
Rushing Offense 175.33 ypg (44th nationally/5th in Big 12)
Passing Offense 358.17 ypg (5/2)
Total Offense 533.50 ypg (5/2)
Scoring Offense 40.00 ppg (10/4)
Rushing Defense 137.83 ypg (44/9)
Passing Defense 265.33 ypg (100/11)
Total Defense 403.17 ypg (78/9)
Scoring Defense 24.50 ppg (48/9)
Of note, Missouri is 11th nationally in punt returns.
Star Players: Chase Daniel, 5th nationally in total offense; Jeremy Maclin, 4th nationally in all-purpose yards.
Nebraska (4-3/1-2)
Sagarin Rating 58
Billingsley Report 45
Wolfe computer rating 55
RealTimeRPI.com 46
Nevada (2-3) 52-10
@Wake Forest (4-2) 20-17
Southern California (5-1) 31-49
Ball State (4-3) 41-40
Iowa State (1-6) 35-17
@Missouri (6-1) 6-41
Oklahoma State (4-3) 14-45
Rushing Offense 154.71 ypg (64th nationally/7th in Big 12)
Passing Offense 269.71 ypg (27/6)
Total Offense 424.43 ypg (38/7)
Scoring Offense 28.43 ppg (52/9)
Rushing Defense 208.57 ypg (106/12)
Passing Defense 248.57 ypg (83/8)
Total Defense 457.14 ypg (104/12)
Scoring Defense 31.29 ppg (87/10)
Big 12 South
Baylor (3-4/0-3)
Sagarin Rating 110
Billingsley Report 79
Wolfe computer rating 75
RealTimeRPI.com 88
@Texas Christian (4-3) 0-27
Rice (1-5) 42-17
Texas St. (1-5) 34-27
@Buffalo (3-4) 34-21
@Texas A&M (5-2) 10-34
Colorado (4-3) 23-43
@Kansas (6-0) 10-58
Rushing Offense 81.29 ypg (111th nationally/12th in Big 12)
Passing Offense 285.00 ypg (19/4)
Total Offense 366.29 ypg (76/11)
Scoring Offense 21.86 ppg (97/11)
Rushing Defense 172.43 ypg (85/11)
Passing Defense 251.14 ypg (86/9)
Total Defense 423.57 ypg (85/11)
Scoring Defense 32.43 ppg (90/11)
Of note, Baylor ranks 104th nationally in turnover margin.
Oklahoma (6-1/2-1)
Sagarin Rating 6
Billingsley Report 12
Wolfe computer rating 11
RealTimeRPI.com 8
USA Today Coaches’ Poll 4
Associated Press Poll 4
Harris Interactive 4
BCS 5
North Texas (1-5) 79-10
Miami (FL) (4-3) 51-13
Utah St. (0-6) 54-3
@Tulsa (4-2) 62-21
@Colorado (4-3) 24-27
Texas (5-2) 28-21 (in Dallas)
Missouri (5-1) 41-31
Rushing Offense 202.14 ypg (21st nationally/4th in Big 12)
Passing Offense 266.00 ypg (35/7)
Total Offense 468.14 ypg (14/5)
Scoring Offense 48.43 ppg (4/3)
Rushing Defense 65.14 ypg (4/1)
Passing Defense 237.86 ypg (73/7)
Total Defense 303.00 ypg (17/2)
Scoring Defense 18.00 ppg (20/2)
Of note, Oklahoma 6th nationally in sacks, 9th nationally in tackles for losses, 6th nationally in sacks allowed, and 4th nationally in kickoff returns.
Star Players: Sam Bradford, 1st nationally in pass efficiency; Curtis Lofton, 4th nationally in tackles per game; Auston English, 9th nationally in sacks per game and 11th in tackles for losses.
Oklahoma State (4-3/2-1)
Sagarin Rating 37
Billingsley Report 43
Wolfe computer rating 36
RealTimeRPI.com 48
@Georgia (5-2) 14-35
Florida Atlantic (3-3) 42-6
@Troy (4-2) 23-41
Texas Tech (6-1) 49-45
Sam Houston State (2-4) 39-3
@Texas A&M (5-2) 23-24
@Nebraska (4-3) 45-14
Rushing Offense 246.29 ypg (6th nationally/1st in Big 12)
Passing Offense 238.00 ypg (50/10)
Total Offense ypg 484.29 (12/4)
Scoring Offense 33.57 ppg (34/7)
Rushing Defense 122.43 ypg (35/6)
Passing Defense 294.29 ypg (112/12)
Total Defense 416.71 ypg (82/10)
Scoring Defense 24.00 ppg (45/6)
Of note, Oklahoma State is 10th nationally in sacks allowed.
Texas (5-2/1-2)
Sagarin Rating 21
Billingsley Report 34
Wolfe computer rating 39
RealTimeRPI.com 31
USA Today Coaches’ Poll 18
Associated Press Poll 19
Harris Interactive 18
BCS 22
Arkansas State (3-3) 21-13
Texas Christian (4-3) 34-13
@Central Florida (3-3) 35-32
Rice (1-5) 58-14
Kansas State (4-2) 21-41
Oklahoma (6-1) 21-28 (in Dallas)
@Iowa State (1-6) 56-3
Rushing Offense 162.71 ypg (51st nationally/6th in Big 12)
Passing Offense 270.43 ypg (26/5)
Total Offense 433.14 ypg (32/6)
Scoring Offense 35.14 ppg (28/6)
Rushing Defense 101.00 ypg (23/3)
Passing Defense 207.00 ypg (38/3)
Total Defense 308.00 ypg (20/3)
Scoring Defense 20.57 ppg (32/4)
Texas A&M (5-2/2-1)
Sagarin Rating 48
Billingsley Report 40
Wolfe computer rating 43
RealTimeRPI.com 30
Harris Interactive RV (45th)
Montana State (4-2) 38-7
Fresno State (4-2) 47-45 3OT
Louisiana-Monroe (1-5) 54-14
@Miami (FL) (4-3) 17-34
Baylor (3-4) 34-10
Oklahoma State (4-3) 24-23
@Texas Tech (6-1) 7-35
Rushing Offense 246.00 ypg (7th nationally/2nd in Big 12)
Passing Offense 162.57 ypg (109/12)
Total Offense 408.57 ypg (43/8)
Scoring Offense 31.57 ppg (42/8)
Rushing Defense 135.43 ypg (40/8)
Passing Defense 264.29 ypg (99/10)
Total Defense 399.71 ypg (74/8)
Scoring Defense 24.00 ppg (45/6)
Texas Tech (6-1/2-1)
Sagarin Rating 20
Billingsley Report 29
Wolfe computer rating 24
RealTimeRPI.com 27
USA Today Coaches’ Poll 21
Associated Press Poll 22
Harris Interactive 21
BCS 24
@Southern Methodist (1-5) 49-9
Texas-El Paso (4-3) 45-31
@Rice (1-5) 59-24
@Oklahoma State (4-3) 45-49
Northwestern State (3-3) 75-7
Iowa State (1-6) 42-17
Texas A&M (5-2) 35-7
Rushing Offense 81.57 ypg (110th nationally/11th in Big 12)
Passing Offense 500.43 ypg (1/1)
Total Offense 582.00 ypg (1/1)
Scoring Offense 50.00 ppg (3/2)
Rushing Defense 163.29 ypg (70/10)
Passing Defense 178.57 ypg (16/2)
Total Defense 341.86 ypg (39/6)
Scoring Defense 20.57 ppg (32/4)
Of note, Texas Tech is 14th nationally in sacks allowed.
Star Players: Graham Harrell, 1st nationally in total offense, 2nd nationally in pass efficiency; Michael Crabtree, 1st nationally in receptions, 1st nationally in receiving yards, 11th nationally in all-purpose yards; Danny Amendola, 4th nationally in receptions, 7th nationally in receiving yards.
Colorado (4-3/2-1)
Sagarin rating 39
Billingsley Report 65
Wolfe computer rating 31
RealTimeRPI.com 49
Colorado State (0-6) 31-28 ot (in Denver)
@Arizona State (7-0) 14-33
Florida State (4-2) 6-16
Miami (OH) (4-3) 42-0
Oklahoma (6-1) 27-24
@Baylor (3-4) 43-23
@Kansas State (4-2) 20-47
Rushing Offense 142.71 ypg (74th nationally/8th in Big 12)
Passing Offense 241.43 ypg (46/9)
Total Offense 384.14 ypg (67/10)
Scoring Offense 26.14 ppg (66/10)
Rushing Defense 122.29 ypg (34/5)
Passing Defense 207.86 ypg (39/4)
Total Defense 330.14 ypg (34/5)
Scoring Defense 24.43 ppg (47/8)
Star Player: Jordan Dizon, 1st nationally in tackles per game.
Iowa State (1-6/0-3)
Sagarin Rating 123
Billingsley Report 89
Wolfe computer rating 130
RealTimeRPI.com 141
Kent State (3-4) 14-23
Northern Iowa (6-0) 13-24
Iowa (3-4) 15-13
@Toledo (2-5) 35-36
@Nebraska (4-3) 17-35
@Texas Tech (6-1) 17-42
Texas (5-2) 3-56
Rushing Offense 129.00 ypg (85th nationally/10th in Big 12)
Passing Offense 204.14 ypg (80/11)
Total Offense 333.14 ypg (99/12)
Scoring Offense 16.29 ppg (115/12)
Rushing Defense 133.86 ypg(39/7)
Passing Defense 236.43 ypg (70/6)
Total Defense 370.29 ypg (55/7)
Scoring Defense 32.71 ppg (93/12)
Kansas (6-0/2-0)
Sagarin Rating 4
Billingsley Report 25
Wolfe computer rating 10
RealTimeRPI.com 13
USA Today Coaches’ Poll 15
Associated Press Poll 15
Harris Interactive 15
BCS 13
Central Michigan (4-3) 52-7
Southeast Louisiana (2-4) 62-0
Toledo (2-5) 45-13
Florida International (0-6) 55-3
@Kansas State (4-2) 30-24
Baylor (3-4) 58-10
Rushing Offense 218.83 ypg (13th nationally/3rd in Big 12)
Passing Offense 297.00 ypg (16/3)
Total Offense 515.83 ypg (7/3)
Scoring Offense 50.33 ppg (2/1)
Rushing Defense 80 ypg (8/2)
Passing Defense 160 ypg (7/1)
Total Defense 240 ypg (4/1)
Scoring Defense 9.5 ppg (2/1)
Of note, Kansas is 1st nationally in kick off returns, 6th nationally in turnover margin, and 7th nationally in tackles for loss.
Star Players: Marcus Herford, 3rd in the nation in kickoff returns; Joe Mortenson, top 10 in the nation in tackles for loss.
Kansas State (4-2/2-1)
Sagarin Rating 14
Billingsley Report 42
Wolfe computer rating 22
RealTimeRPI.com 28
USA Today Coaches’ Poll RV (30th)
Associated Press Poll 25
Harris Interactive RV (30th)
BCS 26
@Auburn (5-2) 13-23
San Jose State (3-4) 34-14
Missouri State (4-3) 61-10
@Texas (5-2) 41-21
Kansas (6-0) 24-30
Colorado (4-3) 47-20
Rushing Offense 133.00 ypg (82nd nationally/9th in Big 12)
Passing Offense 264.50 ypg (36/8)
Total Offense 397.50 ypg (53/9)
Scoring Offense 36.67 ppg (19/5)
Rushing Defense 112.50 ypg (31/4)
Passing Defense 213.00 ypg (49/5)
Total Defense 325.50 ypg (31/4)
Scoring Defense 19.67 ppg (27/3)
Of note, Kansas State is 1st nationally in punt returns, 11th nationally in sacks, and 3rd nationally in sacks allowed.
Star Players: Jordy Nelson, 3rd nationally in receptions per game/4th nationally in receiving yards per game; Tim Reyer, 8th nationally in punting; Brooks Rossman, 2nd nationally in field goals/9th nationally in scoring; and Deon Murphy, 13th nationally in punt returns.
Missouri (6-1/1-1)
Sagarin Rating 16
Billingsley Report 21
Wolfe computer rating 13
RealTimeRPI.com 11
USA Today Coaches’ Poll 17
Associated Press Poll 15 (tie)
Harris Interactive 17
BCS 16
Illinois (5-2) 40-34 (in St. Louis)
@Mississippi (2-5) 38-25
Western Michigan (3-4) 52-24
Illinois State (3-4) 38-17
Nebraska (4-3) 41-6
@Oklahoma (6-1) 31-41
Rushing Offense 175.33 ypg (44th nationally/5th in Big 12)
Passing Offense 358.17 ypg (5/2)
Total Offense 533.50 ypg (5/2)
Scoring Offense 40.00 ppg (10/4)
Rushing Defense 137.83 ypg (44/9)
Passing Defense 265.33 ypg (100/11)
Total Defense 403.17 ypg (78/9)
Scoring Defense 24.50 ppg (48/9)
Of note, Missouri is 11th nationally in punt returns.
Star Players: Chase Daniel, 5th nationally in total offense; Jeremy Maclin, 4th nationally in all-purpose yards.
Nebraska (4-3/1-2)
Sagarin Rating 58
Billingsley Report 45
Wolfe computer rating 55
RealTimeRPI.com 46
Nevada (2-3) 52-10
@Wake Forest (4-2) 20-17
Southern California (5-1) 31-49
Ball State (4-3) 41-40
Iowa State (1-6) 35-17
@Missouri (6-1) 6-41
Oklahoma State (4-3) 14-45
Rushing Offense 154.71 ypg (64th nationally/7th in Big 12)
Passing Offense 269.71 ypg (27/6)
Total Offense 424.43 ypg (38/7)
Scoring Offense 28.43 ppg (52/9)
Rushing Defense 208.57 ypg (106/12)
Passing Defense 248.57 ypg (83/8)
Total Defense 457.14 ypg (104/12)
Scoring Defense 31.29 ppg (87/10)
Big 12 South
Baylor (3-4/0-3)
Sagarin Rating 110
Billingsley Report 79
Wolfe computer rating 75
RealTimeRPI.com 88
@Texas Christian (4-3) 0-27
Rice (1-5) 42-17
Texas St. (1-5) 34-27
@Buffalo (3-4) 34-21
@Texas A&M (5-2) 10-34
Colorado (4-3) 23-43
@Kansas (6-0) 10-58
Rushing Offense 81.29 ypg (111th nationally/12th in Big 12)
Passing Offense 285.00 ypg (19/4)
Total Offense 366.29 ypg (76/11)
Scoring Offense 21.86 ppg (97/11)
Rushing Defense 172.43 ypg (85/11)
Passing Defense 251.14 ypg (86/9)
Total Defense 423.57 ypg (85/11)
Scoring Defense 32.43 ppg (90/11)
Of note, Baylor ranks 104th nationally in turnover margin.
Oklahoma (6-1/2-1)
Sagarin Rating 6
Billingsley Report 12
Wolfe computer rating 11
RealTimeRPI.com 8
USA Today Coaches’ Poll 4
Associated Press Poll 4
Harris Interactive 4
BCS 5
North Texas (1-5) 79-10
Miami (FL) (4-3) 51-13
Utah St. (0-6) 54-3
@Tulsa (4-2) 62-21
@Colorado (4-3) 24-27
Texas (5-2) 28-21 (in Dallas)
Missouri (5-1) 41-31
Rushing Offense 202.14 ypg (21st nationally/4th in Big 12)
Passing Offense 266.00 ypg (35/7)
Total Offense 468.14 ypg (14/5)
Scoring Offense 48.43 ppg (4/3)
Rushing Defense 65.14 ypg (4/1)
Passing Defense 237.86 ypg (73/7)
Total Defense 303.00 ypg (17/2)
Scoring Defense 18.00 ppg (20/2)
Of note, Oklahoma 6th nationally in sacks, 9th nationally in tackles for losses, 6th nationally in sacks allowed, and 4th nationally in kickoff returns.
Star Players: Sam Bradford, 1st nationally in pass efficiency; Curtis Lofton, 4th nationally in tackles per game; Auston English, 9th nationally in sacks per game and 11th in tackles for losses.
Oklahoma State (4-3/2-1)
Sagarin Rating 37
Billingsley Report 43
Wolfe computer rating 36
RealTimeRPI.com 48
@Georgia (5-2) 14-35
Florida Atlantic (3-3) 42-6
@Troy (4-2) 23-41
Texas Tech (6-1) 49-45
Sam Houston State (2-4) 39-3
@Texas A&M (5-2) 23-24
@Nebraska (4-3) 45-14
Rushing Offense 246.29 ypg (6th nationally/1st in Big 12)
Passing Offense 238.00 ypg (50/10)
Total Offense ypg 484.29 (12/4)
Scoring Offense 33.57 ppg (34/7)
Rushing Defense 122.43 ypg (35/6)
Passing Defense 294.29 ypg (112/12)
Total Defense 416.71 ypg (82/10)
Scoring Defense 24.00 ppg (45/6)
Of note, Oklahoma State is 10th nationally in sacks allowed.
Texas (5-2/1-2)
Sagarin Rating 21
Billingsley Report 34
Wolfe computer rating 39
RealTimeRPI.com 31
USA Today Coaches’ Poll 18
Associated Press Poll 19
Harris Interactive 18
BCS 22
Arkansas State (3-3) 21-13
Texas Christian (4-3) 34-13
@Central Florida (3-3) 35-32
Rice (1-5) 58-14
Kansas State (4-2) 21-41
Oklahoma (6-1) 21-28 (in Dallas)
@Iowa State (1-6) 56-3
Rushing Offense 162.71 ypg (51st nationally/6th in Big 12)
Passing Offense 270.43 ypg (26/5)
Total Offense 433.14 ypg (32/6)
Scoring Offense 35.14 ppg (28/6)
Rushing Defense 101.00 ypg (23/3)
Passing Defense 207.00 ypg (38/3)
Total Defense 308.00 ypg (20/3)
Scoring Defense 20.57 ppg (32/4)
Texas A&M (5-2/2-1)
Sagarin Rating 48
Billingsley Report 40
Wolfe computer rating 43
RealTimeRPI.com 30
Harris Interactive RV (45th)
Montana State (4-2) 38-7
Fresno State (4-2) 47-45 3OT
Louisiana-Monroe (1-5) 54-14
@Miami (FL) (4-3) 17-34
Baylor (3-4) 34-10
Oklahoma State (4-3) 24-23
@Texas Tech (6-1) 7-35
Rushing Offense 246.00 ypg (7th nationally/2nd in Big 12)
Passing Offense 162.57 ypg (109/12)
Total Offense 408.57 ypg (43/8)
Scoring Offense 31.57 ppg (42/8)
Rushing Defense 135.43 ypg (40/8)
Passing Defense 264.29 ypg (99/10)
Total Defense 399.71 ypg (74/8)
Scoring Defense 24.00 ppg (45/6)
Texas Tech (6-1/2-1)
Sagarin Rating 20
Billingsley Report 29
Wolfe computer rating 24
RealTimeRPI.com 27
USA Today Coaches’ Poll 21
Associated Press Poll 22
Harris Interactive 21
BCS 24
@Southern Methodist (1-5) 49-9
Texas-El Paso (4-3) 45-31
@Rice (1-5) 59-24
@Oklahoma State (4-3) 45-49
Northwestern State (3-3) 75-7
Iowa State (1-6) 42-17
Texas A&M (5-2) 35-7
Rushing Offense 81.57 ypg (110th nationally/11th in Big 12)
Passing Offense 500.43 ypg (1/1)
Total Offense 582.00 ypg (1/1)
Scoring Offense 50.00 ppg (3/2)
Rushing Defense 163.29 ypg (70/10)
Passing Defense 178.57 ypg (16/2)
Total Defense 341.86 ypg (39/6)
Scoring Defense 20.57 ppg (32/4)
Of note, Texas Tech is 14th nationally in sacks allowed.
Star Players: Graham Harrell, 1st nationally in total offense, 2nd nationally in pass efficiency; Michael Crabtree, 1st nationally in receptions, 1st nationally in receiving yards, 11th nationally in all-purpose yards; Danny Amendola, 4th nationally in receptions, 7th nationally in receiving yards.
Recap and Redeaux - Wrong Again
Kansas State 47 Colorado 20. It's tiring being wrong. But on the other hand, I am happy to be wrong as Kansas State wins and covers the spread beating Colorado 47-20. That said, KSU is still a flawed team. The defense isn't great, and tonight KSU managed to give up a ton of yards. From watching the game, Hugh Charles looked to be everybody's All-American. Kansas State's offense, though balanced, looked inept at times and was forced to engage in trickery.
Fortunately, KSU was able to do a fair job shutting down the CU passing game. Still, Kansas State surrendered some 400+ yards. KSU managed to take advantage of some interceptions, yielded field position (bad choices by CU's head coach Dan Hawkins), a bobbled snap on a punt, and a team that gave up in the 4th quarter. Also, Kansas State seemed to be able to make some adjustments for a change, which appeared to help.
Kansas 58 Baylor 10. Kansas covered the spread crushing Baylor 58-10, having their way with the Bears. Marcus Herford set the tone with an 88 yard kickoff return for a touchdown early in the game.
Oklahoma 41 Missouri 31. Oklahoma missed a couple extra points and then surrendered a touch down with 12 seconds remaining, and Missouri got a back door cover. OU's speed on defense was too much for Missouri to overcome. Perhaps more distressing for Missouri, mental errors. Missouri just could not have those kinds of errors in order to beat Nebraska.
Oklahoma State 45 Nebraska 14. Nebraska's vaunted blackshirt defense surrendered 552 yards of total offense, as Oklahoma State has their way with them, doing what they wanted when they wanted. Oklahoma State opened up a 38-0 halftime lead and cruised to victory, covering the spread.
Texas Tech 35 Texas A&M 7. Texas A&M opened the game with a touchdown and never scored again as Texas Tech cruised to a 35-7 win. Mike Leach's defense held the Aggies to 365 yards. Michael Crabtree again starred for the Red Raiders, gaining 174 yards on 8 receptions.
Texas 56 Iowa State 3. Texas returns to the win column with an easy victory over their former defensive coordinator, Gene Chizik.
Fortunately, KSU was able to do a fair job shutting down the CU passing game. Still, Kansas State surrendered some 400+ yards. KSU managed to take advantage of some interceptions, yielded field position (bad choices by CU's head coach Dan Hawkins), a bobbled snap on a punt, and a team that gave up in the 4th quarter. Also, Kansas State seemed to be able to make some adjustments for a change, which appeared to help.
Kansas 58 Baylor 10. Kansas covered the spread crushing Baylor 58-10, having their way with the Bears. Marcus Herford set the tone with an 88 yard kickoff return for a touchdown early in the game.
Oklahoma 41 Missouri 31. Oklahoma missed a couple extra points and then surrendered a touch down with 12 seconds remaining, and Missouri got a back door cover. OU's speed on defense was too much for Missouri to overcome. Perhaps more distressing for Missouri, mental errors. Missouri just could not have those kinds of errors in order to beat Nebraska.
Oklahoma State 45 Nebraska 14. Nebraska's vaunted blackshirt defense surrendered 552 yards of total offense, as Oklahoma State has their way with them, doing what they wanted when they wanted. Oklahoma State opened up a 38-0 halftime lead and cruised to victory, covering the spread.
Texas Tech 35 Texas A&M 7. Texas A&M opened the game with a touchdown and never scored again as Texas Tech cruised to a 35-7 win. Mike Leach's defense held the Aggies to 365 yards. Michael Crabtree again starred for the Red Raiders, gaining 174 yards on 8 receptions.
Texas 56 Iowa State 3. Texas returns to the win column with an easy victory over their former defensive coordinator, Gene Chizik.
Saturday, October 13, 2007
Big 12 Rankings and Predictions
After the second full week of Big 12 action, here is how the teams rank (last week in parentheses):
1. Missouri (1) (5-0/1-0). Destroyed Nebraska last week, 41-6. Missouri dominated a poor Nebraska team, which is exactly what they should have done. Missouri plays at OU, so has an opportunity to put an exclamation point on the number one ranking. Missouri's weakness was defense, but perhaps they learned something last week to go along with their outstanding offense.
2. Kansas (4) (5-0/1-0). Kansas State isn't as good as I thought, but still, winning on the road in a hostile environment shows that Kansas is a tough, hard nosed football team. KU has a solid offense, and Aqib Talib does everything for them. They will be a handful for teams, and they have a very easy Big 12 schedule.
3. Oklahoma (3) (5-1/1-1). Demonstrated that they have the ability to bounce back last week in the Red River Rivalry. But, it was a close game, closer than most expected. Oklahoma with a victory over Missouri has a chance to make a run at the national championship.
4. Colorado (5) (4-2/2-0). CU went on the road and destroyed Baylor. Colorado is starting to find their offense to go along with their defense. The Buffaloes are finding themselves under Dan Hawkins.
5. Kansas State (2) (3-2/1-1). K-State is still riding the coattails of the win over Texas. However, KSU is a deeply flawed team and will find themselves in the middle of the Big 12 all year. The loss to Kansas exposed them for the fraud they are. Take away the special teams and the Kansas State offense is woeful.
6. Texas A&M (9) (5-1/2-0). Texas A&M is also a fraud that will be exposed and exposed soon. However, they get credit for winning a tough game versus Oklahoma State.
7. Texas Tech (7) (5-1/1-1). They beat Iowa State. So? Everyone beats Iowa State. It should have been worse. Texas Tech's defense is still suspect. Michael Crabtree is amazing though.
8. Texas (6) (4-2/0-2). Two losses in a row, but will get better versus Iowa State. Texas will start to find themselves and work their way back up the Big 12 standings. Texas has an outstanding offense that just isn't on track yet. When they get rolling, watch out!
9. Oklahoma State (10) (3-3/1-1). I give them some credit for battling at Texas A&M. They do have a good offense, but are suspect on defense. Oklahoma State is a disappointment this year.
10. Nebraska (8) (4-2/1-1). Nebraska is falling and falling fast. Against Missouri, they looked inept on offense and defense. It's almost sad to watch the Nebraska empire crumble before our eyes.
11. Baylor (11) (3-3/0-2). Baylor's new offense just cannot keep up with the stalwarts of the Big 12.
12. Iowa State (12) (1-5/0-2). Bad in every sense of the word.
Predictions (last week, 5-1 straight up, 3-3 ATS):
Texas at Iowa State (+16.5) I expect Texas to come out and take out some frustrations on the Cyclones. Iowa State has struggled against bad teams, much less good teams. Texas has far too many athletes for ISU to compete with. Texas win and covers easily.
Oklahoma State at Nebraska (-3.5) Nebraska cannot stop the run and cannot stop the pass. Missouri, Ball State, Iowa State, Southern California, it doesn't matter. Everyone moves the ball. I don't think that Nebraska can keep up with the OSU spread offense. OSU choked one up against Texas A&M last week, but Nebraska is no Texas A&M.
Baylor at Kansas (-27) Kansas will have trouble with Baylor's offensive scheme. Baylor will throw the ball. KU will win, but Baylor covers the number.
Missouri at Oklahoma (-12) Missouri and their spread offense will have all kinds of trouble with the OU defense. I think this game stays close for a while, but OU will wear down Mizzou and re-start their pursuit of a National Championship. OU covers.
Texas A&M at Texas Tech (-10) Texas A&M is a fraud. Texas Tech has an outstanding offense. Texas Tech throws the ball all over the field, Michael Crabtree catches 14 passes for a buck 60 and three TDs. Texas Tech covers.
Colorado at Kansas State (-5) Wrong team favored. CU wins outright.
1. Missouri (1) (5-0/1-0). Destroyed Nebraska last week, 41-6. Missouri dominated a poor Nebraska team, which is exactly what they should have done. Missouri plays at OU, so has an opportunity to put an exclamation point on the number one ranking. Missouri's weakness was defense, but perhaps they learned something last week to go along with their outstanding offense.
2. Kansas (4) (5-0/1-0). Kansas State isn't as good as I thought, but still, winning on the road in a hostile environment shows that Kansas is a tough, hard nosed football team. KU has a solid offense, and Aqib Talib does everything for them. They will be a handful for teams, and they have a very easy Big 12 schedule.
3. Oklahoma (3) (5-1/1-1). Demonstrated that they have the ability to bounce back last week in the Red River Rivalry. But, it was a close game, closer than most expected. Oklahoma with a victory over Missouri has a chance to make a run at the national championship.
4. Colorado (5) (4-2/2-0). CU went on the road and destroyed Baylor. Colorado is starting to find their offense to go along with their defense. The Buffaloes are finding themselves under Dan Hawkins.
5. Kansas State (2) (3-2/1-1). K-State is still riding the coattails of the win over Texas. However, KSU is a deeply flawed team and will find themselves in the middle of the Big 12 all year. The loss to Kansas exposed them for the fraud they are. Take away the special teams and the Kansas State offense is woeful.
6. Texas A&M (9) (5-1/2-0). Texas A&M is also a fraud that will be exposed and exposed soon. However, they get credit for winning a tough game versus Oklahoma State.
7. Texas Tech (7) (5-1/1-1). They beat Iowa State. So? Everyone beats Iowa State. It should have been worse. Texas Tech's defense is still suspect. Michael Crabtree is amazing though.
8. Texas (6) (4-2/0-2). Two losses in a row, but will get better versus Iowa State. Texas will start to find themselves and work their way back up the Big 12 standings. Texas has an outstanding offense that just isn't on track yet. When they get rolling, watch out!
9. Oklahoma State (10) (3-3/1-1). I give them some credit for battling at Texas A&M. They do have a good offense, but are suspect on defense. Oklahoma State is a disappointment this year.
10. Nebraska (8) (4-2/1-1). Nebraska is falling and falling fast. Against Missouri, they looked inept on offense and defense. It's almost sad to watch the Nebraska empire crumble before our eyes.
11. Baylor (11) (3-3/0-2). Baylor's new offense just cannot keep up with the stalwarts of the Big 12.
12. Iowa State (12) (1-5/0-2). Bad in every sense of the word.
Predictions (last week, 5-1 straight up, 3-3 ATS):
Texas at Iowa State (+16.5) I expect Texas to come out and take out some frustrations on the Cyclones. Iowa State has struggled against bad teams, much less good teams. Texas has far too many athletes for ISU to compete with. Texas win and covers easily.
Oklahoma State at Nebraska (-3.5) Nebraska cannot stop the run and cannot stop the pass. Missouri, Ball State, Iowa State, Southern California, it doesn't matter. Everyone moves the ball. I don't think that Nebraska can keep up with the OSU spread offense. OSU choked one up against Texas A&M last week, but Nebraska is no Texas A&M.
Baylor at Kansas (-27) Kansas will have trouble with Baylor's offensive scheme. Baylor will throw the ball. KU will win, but Baylor covers the number.
Missouri at Oklahoma (-12) Missouri and their spread offense will have all kinds of trouble with the OU defense. I think this game stays close for a while, but OU will wear down Mizzou and re-start their pursuit of a National Championship. OU covers.
Texas A&M at Texas Tech (-10) Texas A&M is a fraud. Texas Tech has an outstanding offense. Texas Tech throws the ball all over the field, Michael Crabtree catches 14 passes for a buck 60 and three TDs. Texas Tech covers.
Colorado at Kansas State (-5) Wrong team favored. CU wins outright.
Friday, October 12, 2007
It's Colorado Week
So after the last two weeks, I almost hesitate to break down this game. At least the Texas game I had an idea about, since Texas had been on television. Breaking down Kansas was darn near impossible. It was a mere guess based on practically nothing.
So what happened last week? Of course on Saturday after the game I briefly described what happened, but it is deeper than that, of course. In the first quarter, KSU had a chance to punch KU in the face and take control of the game. An aggressive defense and speed that KU was not used to allowed KSU to attack them. Unfortunately, KSU committed some questionable penalties, which killed any momentum they had. After the first quarter, Kansas State ideally would have been up 17-0 or even 21 to nothing, and Kansas State had that opportunity, but self-destructed. Towards the end of the first half, Kansas State was slowly moving down the field, up 14-7, and a passed was tipped and intercepted. Kansas quickly drove about 60 yards and tied the game at half 14-14.
In the second half, Kansas State had the opportunity to hold onto a lead, but gave it up. Then, Kansas State had the opportunity to drive the field and win, but failed. Ultimately, Kansas made plays and Kansas State didn't. Kansas proved to be tougher and fought harder. That's why they won.
As for the Colorado game, Kansas State needs to come out and establish their offense. KSU needs to prove that it can effectively run its offense and make a defensive stop when it needs to. Colorado is a battle tested team, having won versus Colorado State, lost a difficult game at Arizona State, showed its athleticism in a loss to Florida State, then crushed an overmatched Miami (OH) team. In their opening Big 12 contest, Colorado stunned Oklahoma, coming back from a huge 4th quarter deficit. Then, CU went on the road and crushed an improving Baylor squad. While starting a red-shirt freshman quarterback, Colorado has proven to be a tough minded team, playing hard on every snap.
Kansas State has not shown any toughness. Kansas State can go out and punch people, but they cannot take a counterpunch. Texas didn't have toughness and Kansas State rolled them. Auburn and Kansas took punches and counterpunched. Kansas State then folded.
I expect Kansas State to fold again this weekend. In exactly one game under Ron Prince has KSU shown toughness, last year against Oklahoma State. KSU simply does not have the wherewithal to overcome difficulties and impose their will to win games against battle hardened, tough teams.
I expect a hard fought game again this week, and I expect Kansas State to lose a close game.
So what happened last week? Of course on Saturday after the game I briefly described what happened, but it is deeper than that, of course. In the first quarter, KSU had a chance to punch KU in the face and take control of the game. An aggressive defense and speed that KU was not used to allowed KSU to attack them. Unfortunately, KSU committed some questionable penalties, which killed any momentum they had. After the first quarter, Kansas State ideally would have been up 17-0 or even 21 to nothing, and Kansas State had that opportunity, but self-destructed. Towards the end of the first half, Kansas State was slowly moving down the field, up 14-7, and a passed was tipped and intercepted. Kansas quickly drove about 60 yards and tied the game at half 14-14.
In the second half, Kansas State had the opportunity to hold onto a lead, but gave it up. Then, Kansas State had the opportunity to drive the field and win, but failed. Ultimately, Kansas made plays and Kansas State didn't. Kansas proved to be tougher and fought harder. That's why they won.
As for the Colorado game, Kansas State needs to come out and establish their offense. KSU needs to prove that it can effectively run its offense and make a defensive stop when it needs to. Colorado is a battle tested team, having won versus Colorado State, lost a difficult game at Arizona State, showed its athleticism in a loss to Florida State, then crushed an overmatched Miami (OH) team. In their opening Big 12 contest, Colorado stunned Oklahoma, coming back from a huge 4th quarter deficit. Then, CU went on the road and crushed an improving Baylor squad. While starting a red-shirt freshman quarterback, Colorado has proven to be a tough minded team, playing hard on every snap.
Kansas State has not shown any toughness. Kansas State can go out and punch people, but they cannot take a counterpunch. Texas didn't have toughness and Kansas State rolled them. Auburn and Kansas took punches and counterpunched. Kansas State then folded.
I expect Kansas State to fold again this weekend. In exactly one game under Ron Prince has KSU shown toughness, last year against Oklahoma State. KSU simply does not have the wherewithal to overcome difficulties and impose their will to win games against battle hardened, tough teams.
I expect a hard fought game again this week, and I expect Kansas State to lose a close game.
Saturday, October 06, 2007
Again, I was wrong
A couple dumb penalties. A couple bad turnovers.
Outcoached.
Outplayed.
The defense got torched and torched often.
Outcoached.
Outplayed.
The defense got torched and torched often.
Big 12 Rankings and Predictions
After the first full week of Big 12 action (everyone has played a conference game aside from Mizzou and Kansas), here is how the teams rank (last week in parentheses):
1. Missouri (2) (4-0/0-0). Missouri's win over the Fighting Illini is looking better and better. Missouri's defense is suspect, but not as suspect as several other defenses in the Big 12. Missouri's offense is outstanding and will give Nebraska fits.
2. Kansas State (5) (3-1/1-0). Kansas State had a huge upset win on the road last weekend, but after watching the game, it did not really appear to be an upset. Kansas State played smart, fast, and aggressive on defense. KSU limited penalties, dominated on special teams, used an efficient if unspectacular offense. Kansas State has the best win of the season so far.
3. Oklahoma (1) (4-1/0-1). I predicted someone would get surprised by Colorado, so the result last weekend was no shock to me. I thought Colorado would merely get a backdoor cover, but instead they had a backdoor win. OU is a complete team, but young quarterbacks on the road in conference will struggle. Bradford's first Big 12 road start began well, but ended with a loss at Colorado. That said, OU is an outstanding team and will rebound during the course of the season, though perhaps the Big 12 is more wide open than I suspected.
4. Kansas (4) (4-0/0-0). Still don't know anything more about Kansas.
5. Colorado (9) (3-2/1-0). Great defense, learning on offense. Beating OU is a signature win for Dan Hawkin's squad, the kind of signature win Mark Mangino, Gary Pinkel and Bill Callahan do not have. Good job Buffaloes. Now back it up by beating Baylor on the road.
6. Texas (3) (4-1/0-1). Getting smoked at home 41-21 just doesn't happen. Texas has a ton of athletes and will bounce back. Maybe next week.
7. Texas Tech (6) (4-1/0-1). We learned nothing from their drubbing of Northwestern State.
8. Nebraska (7) (4-1/1-0). While Nebraska beat Iowa State, it was more Iowa State losing than Nebraska winning. Iowa State gained 400+ yards of offense and ran over a 100 plays, keeping the ball for 40 something minutes. I am still not sure how they lost.
9. Texas A&M (8) (4-1/1-0). Beat Baylor and beat the decisively. Still suffering from the Miami (FL) beating. Miami (FL) just isn't very good.
10. Oklahoma State (10) (3-2/1-0). Didn't show much against Sam Houston State. Sometimes a 39-3 win just isn't enough.
11. Baylor (11) (3-2/0-1). Still not ready for the big time. Offense struggled in loss to Texas A&M.
12. Iowa State (12) (1-4/0-1). Finding new ways to lose every week.
Predictions (last week, 4-2 straight up, 1-3 against the spread)
Kansas at Kansas State (-3.5) Kansas State covers. See previous entries.
Oklahoma versus Texas (+12.5) In an unusual game, the Red River Rivalry at the Texas State Fair, two 0-1 teams face each other. Oklahoma is very good, but their young quarterback has weaknesses and Texas has some outstanding athletes. I think Oklahoma ends up winning, but I think Texas covers the number. Texas will be able to score on Oklahoma.
Colorado at Baylor (+9) Colorado is gettng a ton of points for their beating of Oklahoma last week, but that's a huge number for Baylor. Colorado isn't exactly Colorado of old. Baylor covers, though I think CU pulls out a squeaker.
Iowa State at Texas Tech (-24.5) Mike Leach never met a number he didn't want to cover. Iowa State doesn't have a great offense, turns the ball over too much, and is limited on defense. Gene Chizik knows how to shut down Leach's offense, but doesn't have the athletes to get it done in year one at ISU. Texas Tech rolls.
Oklahoma State at Texas A&M (-6.5) Oklahoma State has been rolled on the road twice this year, once by Georgia (understandable) and one by Troy (unforgiveable). OSU has no better luck on the road today. Texas A&M covers.
Nebraska at Missouri (-6) Neither team has an outstanding defense. Nebraska has given up too many yards and too many points, having won the past couple weeks with a lot of luck more than skill. Their luck runs out this week. Missouri covers, easily.
1. Missouri (2) (4-0/0-0). Missouri's win over the Fighting Illini is looking better and better. Missouri's defense is suspect, but not as suspect as several other defenses in the Big 12. Missouri's offense is outstanding and will give Nebraska fits.
2. Kansas State (5) (3-1/1-0). Kansas State had a huge upset win on the road last weekend, but after watching the game, it did not really appear to be an upset. Kansas State played smart, fast, and aggressive on defense. KSU limited penalties, dominated on special teams, used an efficient if unspectacular offense. Kansas State has the best win of the season so far.
3. Oklahoma (1) (4-1/0-1). I predicted someone would get surprised by Colorado, so the result last weekend was no shock to me. I thought Colorado would merely get a backdoor cover, but instead they had a backdoor win. OU is a complete team, but young quarterbacks on the road in conference will struggle. Bradford's first Big 12 road start began well, but ended with a loss at Colorado. That said, OU is an outstanding team and will rebound during the course of the season, though perhaps the Big 12 is more wide open than I suspected.
4. Kansas (4) (4-0/0-0). Still don't know anything more about Kansas.
5. Colorado (9) (3-2/1-0). Great defense, learning on offense. Beating OU is a signature win for Dan Hawkin's squad, the kind of signature win Mark Mangino, Gary Pinkel and Bill Callahan do not have. Good job Buffaloes. Now back it up by beating Baylor on the road.
6. Texas (3) (4-1/0-1). Getting smoked at home 41-21 just doesn't happen. Texas has a ton of athletes and will bounce back. Maybe next week.
7. Texas Tech (6) (4-1/0-1). We learned nothing from their drubbing of Northwestern State.
8. Nebraska (7) (4-1/1-0). While Nebraska beat Iowa State, it was more Iowa State losing than Nebraska winning. Iowa State gained 400+ yards of offense and ran over a 100 plays, keeping the ball for 40 something minutes. I am still not sure how they lost.
9. Texas A&M (8) (4-1/1-0). Beat Baylor and beat the decisively. Still suffering from the Miami (FL) beating. Miami (FL) just isn't very good.
10. Oklahoma State (10) (3-2/1-0). Didn't show much against Sam Houston State. Sometimes a 39-3 win just isn't enough.
11. Baylor (11) (3-2/0-1). Still not ready for the big time. Offense struggled in loss to Texas A&M.
12. Iowa State (12) (1-4/0-1). Finding new ways to lose every week.
Predictions (last week, 4-2 straight up, 1-3 against the spread)
Kansas at Kansas State (-3.5) Kansas State covers. See previous entries.
Oklahoma versus Texas (+12.5) In an unusual game, the Red River Rivalry at the Texas State Fair, two 0-1 teams face each other. Oklahoma is very good, but their young quarterback has weaknesses and Texas has some outstanding athletes. I think Oklahoma ends up winning, but I think Texas covers the number. Texas will be able to score on Oklahoma.
Colorado at Baylor (+9) Colorado is gettng a ton of points for their beating of Oklahoma last week, but that's a huge number for Baylor. Colorado isn't exactly Colorado of old. Baylor covers, though I think CU pulls out a squeaker.
Iowa State at Texas Tech (-24.5) Mike Leach never met a number he didn't want to cover. Iowa State doesn't have a great offense, turns the ball over too much, and is limited on defense. Gene Chizik knows how to shut down Leach's offense, but doesn't have the athletes to get it done in year one at ISU. Texas Tech rolls.
Oklahoma State at Texas A&M (-6.5) Oklahoma State has been rolled on the road twice this year, once by Georgia (understandable) and one by Troy (unforgiveable). OSU has no better luck on the road today. Texas A&M covers.
Nebraska at Missouri (-6) Neither team has an outstanding defense. Nebraska has given up too many yards and too many points, having won the past couple weeks with a lot of luck more than skill. Their luck runs out this week. Missouri covers, easily.
Friday, October 05, 2007
It's "That School" Week
I really really hate that school we are playing tomorrow. I think I made that abundantly clear in my previous post. So now it's time to look at exactly why UK can win this game:
1. The game will be a replay of last year, where UK won 39-20 in Lawrence. People have said that UK dominated us last year. Ok, let's look at the box score, which is here: http://www.kstatesports.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPID=212&SPSID=3061&DB_OEM_ID=400&ATCLID=693517. In that game, UK did outgain KSU by ... oh wait, no they didn't. Kansas State actually had more net yards. Well then how did UK blow out KSU? Turnovers. Josh Freeman had 6 turnovers on the day. Those turnovers resulted in a lot of points: 24 yard drive for a TD, fumble in the end zone for a TD, interception return for a TD, and a 12 yard drive for a TD. It's not as if UK was driving down the field scoring at will. 27 points (one missed PAT) required drives of a grand total of 35 yards. Those kind of scores cannot be counted on and are even more difficult to count on when on the road. Of the four field goals, one was a 4 yard drive. UK only scored on three field goals on sustained drives. Oh, and KSU was missing quite a few regular players, including a couple wide receivers and several defensive backs. It's amazing how perception can cloud reality. Yes, if KSU turns the ball over and gift wraps 27 points, it will be a long day. I don't think KSU will do that at home.
2. UK's gaudy statistics. That's been dealt with. But as a reminder, from the KSU SID:
Kansas enters this weekend’s 105 edition of the Sunflower Showdown with a perfect 4-0 record and will open its Big 12 Conference portion of the schedule against K-State after having a bye week. The Jayhawks have outscored their opposition, 214-23, through four home games and currently rank among the nation’s best in both offensive and defensive categories after their non-conference wins. Kansas is holding its opposition to 218 yards of total offense a game and just 5.75 points a contest while averaging 552 yards and 53.5 points a game on offense. Quarterback Todd Reesing has paced the offense with 1,199 yards and 11 touchdowns through the air, while five receivers have recorded multiple touchdown receptions.
3. Kansas State really has not proven anything, even though they were competative against a team that beat Florida on the road (Auburn) and beat Texas 41-21. Um. Ok. If you say so. I will remind you that UK has the 171st ranked schedule per Jeff Sagarin, while KSU has the 52nd ranked. In other words, UK's schedule is roughly equivalent to Eastern Washington's (170th ranked schedule, they are 3-1, and they are a 1AA team) and Deleware State's (172nd ranked schedule, they are also 3-1, and they are a 1AA team).
4. Kansas State commits too many penalties. It's a valid concern. If KSU gets 15 penalties for 135 yards, that might be tough to overcome.
Reasons why Kansas State might win:
1. KSU is better prepared having played teams in hostile environments with a lot of speed--Kansas State is battle tested having played at Auburn and at Florida. This is UK's first game against a fast team, this is UK's first game on the road, this is UK's first game out of the friendly confines of their POS stadium.
2. Todd Reesing has never started a road game before and has only 13 passes in two road games versus ISU and MU.
3. UK is 2-18 in true road games under their current coach. Kansas State is 10-3 against the spread in their last 13 home games, and Kansas State is a 3.5 point favorite. The favorite is 11-1 against the spread in the last 12 meetings between these two teams. UK is 2-10 versus the spread in the last 12 meetings. UK has never beaten KSU while KSU has been ranked (KSU is 24 in the AP Poll).
Now, aside from those reasons that a lot of people have talked about, the fact remains that KSU looked very very good against a good Texas team. KSU was able to control Texas's offense, which player for player is better than UK's offense, and KSU was able to harass Texas's quarterback all day long. Kansas State has a good, active, fast defense, and it gave Texas fits. I believe that UK will find that KSU's defense will also give them fits. I don't expect UK to be able to run or pass the ball effectively. That is especially true if Justin McKinney has the type of game he had against Texas.
KSU has oustanding special teams.
KSU's offense is controlled and efficient. The complaints about Josh Freeman turning the ball over really have little merit. Two interceptions were against Auburn at end of the half and game situations where he was forced to throw the ball. The other two INTs were against SJSU, one was just an underthrow, the other was a bad decision. Josh's composure, feet, eyes and decision making are much improved. KSU has a solid running game. The offensive line has played better and better.
They are at home at Bill Snyder Family Stadium, and it will be a loud and hostile environment. The coaching staff learned from last year.
I expect KSU to party like it's 1999.
1. The game will be a replay of last year, where UK won 39-20 in Lawrence. People have said that UK dominated us last year. Ok, let's look at the box score, which is here: http://www.kstatesports.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPID=212&SPSID=3061&DB_OEM_ID=400&ATCLID=693517. In that game, UK did outgain KSU by ... oh wait, no they didn't. Kansas State actually had more net yards. Well then how did UK blow out KSU? Turnovers. Josh Freeman had 6 turnovers on the day. Those turnovers resulted in a lot of points: 24 yard drive for a TD, fumble in the end zone for a TD, interception return for a TD, and a 12 yard drive for a TD. It's not as if UK was driving down the field scoring at will. 27 points (one missed PAT) required drives of a grand total of 35 yards. Those kind of scores cannot be counted on and are even more difficult to count on when on the road. Of the four field goals, one was a 4 yard drive. UK only scored on three field goals on sustained drives. Oh, and KSU was missing quite a few regular players, including a couple wide receivers and several defensive backs. It's amazing how perception can cloud reality. Yes, if KSU turns the ball over and gift wraps 27 points, it will be a long day. I don't think KSU will do that at home.
2. UK's gaudy statistics. That's been dealt with. But as a reminder, from the KSU SID:
Kansas enters this weekend’s 105 edition of the Sunflower Showdown with a perfect 4-0 record and will open its Big 12 Conference portion of the schedule against K-State after having a bye week. The Jayhawks have outscored their opposition, 214-23, through four home games and currently rank among the nation’s best in both offensive and defensive categories after their non-conference wins. Kansas is holding its opposition to 218 yards of total offense a game and just 5.75 points a contest while averaging 552 yards and 53.5 points a game on offense. Quarterback Todd Reesing has paced the offense with 1,199 yards and 11 touchdowns through the air, while five receivers have recorded multiple touchdown receptions.
3. Kansas State really has not proven anything, even though they were competative against a team that beat Florida on the road (Auburn) and beat Texas 41-21. Um. Ok. If you say so. I will remind you that UK has the 171st ranked schedule per Jeff Sagarin, while KSU has the 52nd ranked. In other words, UK's schedule is roughly equivalent to Eastern Washington's (170th ranked schedule, they are 3-1, and they are a 1AA team) and Deleware State's (172nd ranked schedule, they are also 3-1, and they are a 1AA team).
4. Kansas State commits too many penalties. It's a valid concern. If KSU gets 15 penalties for 135 yards, that might be tough to overcome.
Reasons why Kansas State might win:
1. KSU is better prepared having played teams in hostile environments with a lot of speed--Kansas State is battle tested having played at Auburn and at Florida. This is UK's first game against a fast team, this is UK's first game on the road, this is UK's first game out of the friendly confines of their POS stadium.
2. Todd Reesing has never started a road game before and has only 13 passes in two road games versus ISU and MU.
3. UK is 2-18 in true road games under their current coach. Kansas State is 10-3 against the spread in their last 13 home games, and Kansas State is a 3.5 point favorite. The favorite is 11-1 against the spread in the last 12 meetings between these two teams. UK is 2-10 versus the spread in the last 12 meetings. UK has never beaten KSU while KSU has been ranked (KSU is 24 in the AP Poll).
Now, aside from those reasons that a lot of people have talked about, the fact remains that KSU looked very very good against a good Texas team. KSU was able to control Texas's offense, which player for player is better than UK's offense, and KSU was able to harass Texas's quarterback all day long. Kansas State has a good, active, fast defense, and it gave Texas fits. I believe that UK will find that KSU's defense will also give them fits. I don't expect UK to be able to run or pass the ball effectively. That is especially true if Justin McKinney has the type of game he had against Texas.
KSU has oustanding special teams.
KSU's offense is controlled and efficient. The complaints about Josh Freeman turning the ball over really have little merit. Two interceptions were against Auburn at end of the half and game situations where he was forced to throw the ball. The other two INTs were against SJSU, one was just an underthrow, the other was a bad decision. Josh's composure, feet, eyes and decision making are much improved. KSU has a solid running game. The offensive line has played better and better.
They are at home at Bill Snyder Family Stadium, and it will be a loud and hostile environment. The coaching staff learned from last year.
I expect KSU to party like it's 1999.
Wednesday, October 03, 2007
Breaking Down the Chickenhawks
Ok so I hate the team that my beloved Wildcats are playing this weekend. It isn't a normal healthy "hate your ex-wife" hate. Oh no. It's loathing. They disgust me. Sitting in their stadium last year made me violently ill. It's beyond rational hatred. I understand that.
That said, I know the disgusting vermin have played football well this year. Let's take a look at their NCAA statistics. Let's start with offense:
Category/national rank/statistic
Rushing offense/12/226.75 ypg
Passing offense/10/326.00 ypg
Total offense/3/552.75 ypg
Scoring offense/4/53.50
Those are pretty amazing statistics! But let's see who they racked those stats up against:
Central Michigan
Southeast Louisiana (Div. 1AA)
Toledo
Florida International
Central Michigan is 2-3 with wins versus Toledo and Northern Illinois. North Dakota State hammered them by 30. Central Michigan gave up lots of yards to Kansas--but that's their MO. They are ranked 116th in total defense.
Southeast Louisiana is 1-3 with a victory over mighty Kentucky Wesleyen. Southeast Louisiana is 78th in total defense in Division 1AA.
Mighty Toledo is 1-4, with a win versus Iowa State, when ISU gave them the game. Toledo's defense is not very Rocket-ish, and they currently rank 109th in Division 1.
Florida International is 0-5 with a 17 game losing streak. Their defense is ranked an even 100 in Division 1.
So, they have played three division one teams with defenses that are 116, 109, and 100. That's hard to do, since there are 119 division one teams. Well done!
In other words, the offensive statistics have been put up against air. Interesting.
Now let's take a look at the defensive stats:
Category/national rank/statistic
Rushing defense/21/94.75 ypg
Passing efficiency defense/3/81.64 rating
Total defense/3/218.75 ypg
Scoring defense/1/5.75 ppg
Pass Defense/3/124.00 ypg
Tackles for Loss/2/10.75 tpg
Those look pretty impressive. Now about those opponents again:
Central Michigan is 63rd in total offense, so that looks much better.
Southeast Louisiana is 92nd in total offense in Division 1AA. Stopping them isn't difficult.
Toledo is 87th in total offense.
Florida International is dead last (119th) in total offense.
Those gaudy defensive statistics appear to be better than the offensive stats--it's not quite air. But still those stats have been accumulated against short-bus offenses.
That said, I know the disgusting vermin have played football well this year. Let's take a look at their NCAA statistics. Let's start with offense:
Category/national rank/statistic
Rushing offense/12/226.75 ypg
Passing offense/10/326.00 ypg
Total offense/3/552.75 ypg
Scoring offense/4/53.50
Those are pretty amazing statistics! But let's see who they racked those stats up against:
Central Michigan
Southeast Louisiana (Div. 1AA)
Toledo
Florida International
Central Michigan is 2-3 with wins versus Toledo and Northern Illinois. North Dakota State hammered them by 30. Central Michigan gave up lots of yards to Kansas--but that's their MO. They are ranked 116th in total defense.
Southeast Louisiana is 1-3 with a victory over mighty Kentucky Wesleyen. Southeast Louisiana is 78th in total defense in Division 1AA.
Mighty Toledo is 1-4, with a win versus Iowa State, when ISU gave them the game. Toledo's defense is not very Rocket-ish, and they currently rank 109th in Division 1.
Florida International is 0-5 with a 17 game losing streak. Their defense is ranked an even 100 in Division 1.
So, they have played three division one teams with defenses that are 116, 109, and 100. That's hard to do, since there are 119 division one teams. Well done!
In other words, the offensive statistics have been put up against air. Interesting.
Now let's take a look at the defensive stats:
Category/national rank/statistic
Rushing defense/21/94.75 ypg
Passing efficiency defense/3/81.64 rating
Total defense/3/218.75 ypg
Scoring defense/1/5.75 ppg
Pass Defense/3/124.00 ypg
Tackles for Loss/2/10.75 tpg
Those look pretty impressive. Now about those opponents again:
Central Michigan is 63rd in total offense, so that looks much better.
Southeast Louisiana is 92nd in total offense in Division 1AA. Stopping them isn't difficult.
Toledo is 87th in total offense.
Florida International is dead last (119th) in total offense.
Those gaudy defensive statistics appear to be better than the offensive stats--it's not quite air. But still those stats have been accumulated against short-bus offenses.
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