Big 12 Rankings and Predictions

After the first full week of Big 12 action (everyone has played a conference game aside from Mizzou and Kansas), here is how the teams rank (last week in parentheses):

1. Missouri (2) (4-0/0-0). Missouri's win over the Fighting Illini is looking better and better. Missouri's defense is suspect, but not as suspect as several other defenses in the Big 12. Missouri's offense is outstanding and will give Nebraska fits.
2. Kansas State (5) (3-1/1-0). Kansas State had a huge upset win on the road last weekend, but after watching the game, it did not really appear to be an upset. Kansas State played smart, fast, and aggressive on defense. KSU limited penalties, dominated on special teams, used an efficient if unspectacular offense. Kansas State has the best win of the season so far.
3. Oklahoma (1) (4-1/0-1). I predicted someone would get surprised by Colorado, so the result last weekend was no shock to me. I thought Colorado would merely get a backdoor cover, but instead they had a backdoor win. OU is a complete team, but young quarterbacks on the road in conference will struggle. Bradford's first Big 12 road start began well, but ended with a loss at Colorado. That said, OU is an outstanding team and will rebound during the course of the season, though perhaps the Big 12 is more wide open than I suspected.
4. Kansas (4) (4-0/0-0). Still don't know anything more about Kansas.
5. Colorado (9) (3-2/1-0). Great defense, learning on offense. Beating OU is a signature win for Dan Hawkin's squad, the kind of signature win Mark Mangino, Gary Pinkel and Bill Callahan do not have. Good job Buffaloes. Now back it up by beating Baylor on the road.
6. Texas (3) (4-1/0-1). Getting smoked at home 41-21 just doesn't happen. Texas has a ton of athletes and will bounce back. Maybe next week.
7. Texas Tech (6) (4-1/0-1). We learned nothing from their drubbing of Northwestern State.
8. Nebraska (7) (4-1/1-0). While Nebraska beat Iowa State, it was more Iowa State losing than Nebraska winning. Iowa State gained 400+ yards of offense and ran over a 100 plays, keeping the ball for 40 something minutes. I am still not sure how they lost.
9. Texas A&M (8) (4-1/1-0). Beat Baylor and beat the decisively. Still suffering from the Miami (FL) beating. Miami (FL) just isn't very good.
10. Oklahoma State (10) (3-2/1-0). Didn't show much against Sam Houston State. Sometimes a 39-3 win just isn't enough.
11. Baylor (11) (3-2/0-1). Still not ready for the big time. Offense struggled in loss to Texas A&M.
12. Iowa State (12) (1-4/0-1). Finding new ways to lose every week.

Predictions (last week, 4-2 straight up, 1-3 against the spread)

Kansas at Kansas State (-3.5) Kansas State covers. See previous entries.

Oklahoma versus Texas (+12.5) In an unusual game, the Red River Rivalry at the Texas State Fair, two 0-1 teams face each other. Oklahoma is very good, but their young quarterback has weaknesses and Texas has some outstanding athletes. I think Oklahoma ends up winning, but I think Texas covers the number. Texas will be able to score on Oklahoma.

Colorado at Baylor (+9) Colorado is gettng a ton of points for their beating of Oklahoma last week, but that's a huge number for Baylor. Colorado isn't exactly Colorado of old. Baylor covers, though I think CU pulls out a squeaker.

Iowa State at Texas Tech (-24.5) Mike Leach never met a number he didn't want to cover. Iowa State doesn't have a great offense, turns the ball over too much, and is limited on defense. Gene Chizik knows how to shut down Leach's offense, but doesn't have the athletes to get it done in year one at ISU. Texas Tech rolls.

Oklahoma State at Texas A&M (-6.5) Oklahoma State has been rolled on the road twice this year, once by Georgia (understandable) and one by Troy (unforgiveable). OSU has no better luck on the road today. Texas A&M covers.

Nebraska at Missouri (-6) Neither team has an outstanding defense. Nebraska has given up too many yards and too many points, having won the past couple weeks with a lot of luck more than skill. Their luck runs out this week. Missouri covers, easily.