Breaking Down Oklahoma State

I have a problem. I simply refuse to drink purple kool-aid. There are those that say that I am an alumnus of Insecurity U., but I don't think so. The Kansas State football team has holes; it is not a perfect team. The offense is limited, and the defense has difficulty tackling and blows coverages upon occasion. The special teams are very good, but the advantage they provide can be minimized by a smart coach. That's just a general sketch of the K-State football team. Some people look at Oklahoma State and see the team that Troy beat soundly. I look at the Oklahoma State team and see a very solid team, one that should be 4-0 since that debacle.

Anyway, on to the breakdown:

Offense: Okie State runs the spread option a la West Virginia. They are not a true spread team, but they do spread you out. I know they were awful against UGA and Troy, but Bobby Reid was the quarterback running the show against UGA, and the Bulldogs didn't respect the pass at all, which makes sense because Reid is awful at throwing the ball. Georgia attacked the line of scrimmage, sacking Reid 5 times (OSU has given up 2 sacks since that game). Also their best running back, Dantrell Savage, didn't play much because of injury that day. He ran 10 times for 55 yards. Georgia was able to control the game because of the offensive system OSU had. So, OSU made changes.

Against Troy, Zac Robinson made his first start on the road and just wasn't very good. Robinson replaced Reid and started the week before against Florida Atlantic and was fine, but he had issues against at Troy, throwing a couple interceptions and missing on his passes. Without much OSU offense, Omar Haugabook lit up the OSU defense and Troy won going away. Savage did not play in either the FAU or Troy games.

After the Troy game, Savage came back and has four straight 100 yard games, including a 200+ yard outburst versus the Nebraska defense. It doesn't end with Savage; OSU has three good runners, Savage, Kendall Hunter and Robinson, and Keith Totson isn't bad either. They all can make plays running the ball. There is a reason they are 6th in the nation rushing.

Robinson can throw the ball too, as he is 90/154/6 with ten touchdowns (twice as many as Josh Freeman with fewer interceptions). Teams have to respect the pass because Robinson can actually complete them to their good receivers, Adarius Bowman and Brandon Pettigrew. Oklahoma State is starting to achieve the balance and promise they had before the season.

OSU is a VERY dangerous offensive team.

Defense: Oklahoma State has a fairly pedestrian defense, though I will say that OSU's defensive stats are pretty skewed from their game against Texas Tech. Their rushing defense gives up 122 yards per game, which is 35th in the nation and 6th in the big 12. Their passing defense is 112th, giving up 294 yards per game, and they give up 416 yards per game (82nd nationally and 10th in the Big 12).

But let's look at the numbers without the Texas Tech debacle. Remember, they gave up 718 yards of total offense and 646 yards of passing to Texas Tech. Egads. The other games: Georgia had 376 total yards/234 yards passing, FAU had 203 total yards/175 yards passing, Troy did have 562 total yards/388 yards passing, Sam Houston had 355 total yards/270 yards passing, TAMU had 368 total yards/218 yards passing, and Nebraska had 335 total yards/129 yards passing. Those 6 games average to 366.5 total ypg. The TTU game skews their total yards per game by 50 yards! OSU would have the 53/54 ranked defense absent the TTUgame. Those 6 games average 235.67 yards passing per game. You can see how much it is skewed by one game, about 60 yards per game. That would be the 70th rated passing defense. Now, those numbers aren't great, but they aren't the horrible numbers that people make OSU out to be. Not at all. They have a halfway decent, not great or good, but decent defense.

Their weakness is pass defense, and while KSU's passing game is better, it's not fantastic. KSU throws for about 264 yards per game, which is in the 30s nationally. KSU's rushing offense is still fairly anemic. Don't get me wrong, I think KSU will score points, but KSU doesn't run a spread offense like Troy and TTU, so I don't think Kansas State will go crazy like Troy and TTU. Some people believe that we will come out throwing and rack up 400 some yards passing. That's simply a pipe dream. Kansas State throws for 264 yards per game and has done so against Auburn (289 yards versus the 12th ranked pass defense), San Jose State (272 yards/71st), Missouri State (325 yards/89th in Division 1-AA), Texas (177 yards/38th), Kansas (310 yards/7th), and Colorado (214 yards/39th). In other words, KSU doesn't throw for 400 yards against anyone. K-State won't throw for that many yards against OSU either. K-State is more likely to throw for around 275 yards than 400.

Special Teams: Statistically, OSU is not very good at kickoff returns, which is good. Make OSU go more yards. OSU is so-so at punt returns. OSU's net punting sucks. But even if Oklahoma State's special teams aren't great, they can follow the lead of Kansas' Mark Mangino and take that advantage away from KSU by kicking the ball out of bounds and directionally kick the ball. It was smart of Mangino to suck it up and take away our return game. The blocked punt KSU got against Colorado, I won't even count because that was the fault of CU's punter; KSU wasn't even going for a block, he just bobbled the ball. That was fortuitous. KSU hasn't blocked a kick other than that this year.

Point is, our offense isn't great, their defense isn't great. We will score points. Their offense is pretty darn good, on the other hand, and I think they will score some points. Special teams can be negated to some extent. I think they would rather KSU's offense be forced to move the ball and not let the special teams, even if it costs them some yards. Oh, and they don't throw a ton of INTs and give up VERY few sacks. Their offense will be a handful.

In a back and forth close game, I look for Oklahoma State to avenge last year's loss and win by around 6 points.