1. The game will be a replay of last year, where UK won 39-20 in Lawrence. People have said that UK dominated us last year. Ok, let's look at the box score, which is here: http://www.kstatesports.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPID=212&SPSID=3061&DB_OEM_ID=400&ATCLID=693517. In that game, UK did outgain KSU by ... oh wait, no they didn't. Kansas State actually had more net yards. Well then how did UK blow out KSU? Turnovers. Josh Freeman had 6 turnovers on the day. Those turnovers resulted in a lot of points: 24 yard drive for a TD, fumble in the end zone for a TD, interception return for a TD, and a 12 yard drive for a TD. It's not as if UK was driving down the field scoring at will. 27 points (one missed PAT) required drives of a grand total of 35 yards. Those kind of scores cannot be counted on and are even more difficult to count on when on the road. Of the four field goals, one was a 4 yard drive. UK only scored on three field goals on sustained drives. Oh, and KSU was missing quite a few regular players, including a couple wide receivers and several defensive backs. It's amazing how perception can cloud reality. Yes, if KSU turns the ball over and gift wraps 27 points, it will be a long day. I don't think KSU will do that at home.
2. UK's gaudy statistics. That's been dealt with. But as a reminder, from the KSU SID:
Kansas enters this weekend’s 105 edition of the Sunflower Showdown with a perfect 4-0 record and will open its Big 12 Conference portion of the schedule against K-State after having a bye week. The Jayhawks have outscored their opposition, 214-23, through four home games and currently rank among the nation’s best in both offensive and defensive categories after their non-conference wins. Kansas is holding its opposition to 218 yards of total offense a game and just 5.75 points a contest while averaging 552 yards and 53.5 points a game on offense. Quarterback Todd Reesing has paced the offense with 1,199 yards and 11 touchdowns through the air, while five receivers have recorded multiple touchdown receptions.
3. Kansas State really has not proven anything, even though they were competative against a team that beat Florida on the road (Auburn) and beat Texas 41-21. Um. Ok. If you say so. I will remind you that UK has the 171st ranked schedule per Jeff Sagarin, while KSU has the 52nd ranked. In other words, UK's schedule is roughly equivalent to Eastern Washington's (170th ranked schedule, they are 3-1, and they are a 1AA team) and Deleware State's (172nd ranked schedule, they are also 3-1, and they are a 1AA team).
4. Kansas State commits too many penalties. It's a valid concern. If KSU gets 15 penalties for 135 yards, that might be tough to overcome.
Reasons why Kansas State might win:
1. KSU is better prepared having played teams in hostile environments with a lot of speed--Kansas State is battle tested having played at Auburn and at Florida. This is UK's first game against a fast team, this is UK's first game on the road, this is UK's first game out of the friendly confines of their POS stadium.
2. Todd Reesing has never started a road game before and has only 13 passes in two road games versus ISU and MU.
3. UK is 2-18 in true road games under their current coach. Kansas State is 10-3 against the spread in their last 13 home games, and Kansas State is a 3.5 point favorite. The favorite is 11-1 against the spread in the last 12 meetings between these two teams. UK is 2-10 versus the spread in the last 12 meetings. UK has never beaten KSU while KSU has been ranked (KSU is 24 in the AP Poll).
Now, aside from those reasons that a lot of people have talked about, the fact remains that KSU looked very very good against a good Texas team. KSU was able to control Texas's offense, which player for player is better than UK's offense, and KSU was able to harass Texas's quarterback all day long. Kansas State has a good, active, fast defense, and it gave Texas fits. I believe that UK will find that KSU's defense will also give them fits. I don't expect UK to be able to run or pass the ball effectively. That is especially true if Justin McKinney has the type of game he had against Texas.
KSU has oustanding special teams.
KSU's offense is controlled and efficient. The complaints about Josh Freeman turning the ball over really have little merit. Two interceptions were against Auburn at end of the half and game situations where he was forced to throw the ball. The other two INTs were against SJSU, one was just an underthrow, the other was a bad decision. Josh's composure, feet, eyes and decision making are much improved. KSU has a solid running game. The offensive line has played better and better.
They are at home at Bill Snyder Family Stadium, and it will be a loud and hostile environment. The coaching staff learned from last year.
I expect KSU to party like it's 1999.
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