Finally, this week should be easy. The key here is should be. It's homecoming week, and the Baylor Bears are the scheduled victim. It's probably a good choice. Baylor comes into the game on a four game losing streak in the Big 12, having lost to Texas A&M, Colorado, Kansas and Texas by an average score of 42-11. Baylor was particularly bad when they traveled outside the state of Texas, losing to Kansas 58-10. Even though the game appears to be a laugher in waiting, let's take a look at the Baylor Bears.
On offense, Baylor runs a spread offense, similar to the offense run by Texas Tech. However, the Bears' offense lacks the playmakers found on the Red Raiders' offense. There is no Graham Harrell, Michael Crabtree, or Danny Amendola. Baylor is ranked 82nd in total offense, garnering 357.0 yards per game and 103rd in scoring offense, averaging around 20 points per game. Breaking it down, the Bears' passing offense is 20th collecting almost 285 yards per game, but the running game is dreadful, as Baylor rushes for a meager 72 yards per game, which puts them at a solid 115th in the country. In an effort to spur the offense, Baylor head coach Guy Morriss benched the starting quarterback for the first seven games, Blake Szymanski. In his place, Morriss started Michael Machen against Texas, where he went 25 for 44 for 231 yards and one touchdown. He also threw three interceptions. Machen will make his first career road start versus Kansas State. The running game is worse than the passing game. Baylor's leading rusher is Brandon Whitaker, who has rushed for 251 yards and one touchdown. Jay Finley has fared little better, rushing for 184 yards and two touchdowns. Machen does not appear to be the rushing threat Szymanski is. Kansas State, whose defense has been bruised and battered the last three weeks, looks to get healthy against the anemic Baylor offense.
In Waco last year, Baylor held Kansas State to three points. Josh Freeman replaced Dylan Meier and saw his first significant college action, where he was simply awful. In that game in which Baylor won 17-3, Freeman replaced Meier to start the second half and was 11 for 33 for 196 yards and three interceptions. Oh what difference a year makes. This past weekend in the loss to Oklahoma State, Freeman threw for 404 yards, going 36 for 51 with three touchdowns and no interceptions. The Baylor defense hasn't been exactly salty all year, either. Baylor ranks 90th nationally in total defense, giving up 429 yards per game. It isn't a bend but don't break defense either, as Baylor allows a 93rd ranked 32 points per game. The Bears are equally bad at stopping the run and the pass, as Baylor allows an 80th ranked 173 yards per game rushing and 94th ranked 256 yards per game passing. That should allow Kansas State to have a balanced game plan, attacking the Baylor defense on both the ground and through the air.
Jordy Nelson should have another big day. Nelson, Kansas State's senior wide receiver, has 68 receptions for 903 yards and 6 touchdowns thus far this season. With seven catches, Nelson would tie Kansas State's single season record, currently held by Darnell McDonald. With 97 yards, Nelson would be the first receiver to gain 1,000 yards in a season since James Terry in 2003. Look for Nelson to get those seven catches and 97 yards sometime in the third quarter.
The Baylor special teams are anything but special. The Bears rank 111th in kick off returns, 64th in punt returns, and 88th in net punting. That's a recipe for disaster versus an angry Wildcat bunch.
Look for KSU to easily cover the spread.
Thursday, October 25, 2007
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