1. Oklahoma (3) (6-1/2-1). The Sooners came through with a big victory last Saturday, taking down the Missouri Tigers in Norman. Oklahoma surged to an early lead, Missouri showed their metal by responding, the Oklahoma capitalized on some Tiger mistakes and won going away, 41-31. While OU has not demonstrated an ability to play on the road, they have shown they are currently the class of the Big 12, even with the hiccup early against Colorado.
2. Kansas (2) (6-0/2-0). Kansas pummeled an overmatched Baylor squad. For the first time this year, the Jayhawks leave the state of Kansas. Though Colorado has been exposed, we will see if Kansas can deal with a little bit of adversity.
3. Missouri (1) (5-1/1-1). Missouri played the Sooners close for three quarters, then let the pressure get to them and allowed Oklahoma to take control late. Missouri still gets some credit for the road win versus Ole Miss and the neutral site win versus Illinois. This week provides a stern test with Texas Tech visiting. Missouri will be challenged by the Texas Tech offense, but has an opportunity to prove they belong in the nation's elite.
4. Kansas State (5) (4-2/2-1). The Wildcats used special teams and efficient if unspectacular offense to pull away from Colorado. Kansas State, who has 10 interceptions in their last three games, also used turnovers to open up the game against the Buffaloes. Josh Freeman again returned to his efficient form, limiting turnovers. When Kansas State eliminates turnovers, they are much more likely to win (no surprise I know). In the loss against Auburn, KSU had two interceptions and one fumble lost, and in the loss to Kansas, KSU had three interceptions. What's interesting, Auburn had two turnovers and Kansas had three. In their four wins, Kansas State has a grand total of three turnovers (two additional interceptions and one fumble lost), and in those four wins, the Wildcats have received nine turnovers. In the four wins, KSU has a +6 turnover margin, and in the 2 losses, KSU is -1. Additionally, in the two losses, KSU has no defensive or special teams touchdowns. In the the four wins, KSU has five special teams and defensive touchdowns. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that Kansas State needs to score on special teams and/or be in the plus column in turnover margin to win. Unfortunately, turnovers and special teams/defensive scores are more fickle than a steady offense. That's why Kansas State is so hard to predict.
5. Texas Tech (7) (6-1/2-1). Red Raider wide receiver Michael Crabtree is the freshman of the year. Not in the Big 12, in the nation. He's also an All-American. He's also a Heisman Trophy candidate and should win the Bilenikoff Award. After seven games, he has 78 receptions for 1,244 yards and 17 touchdowns. That's just ridiculous. Graham Harrell has 31 touchdown passes and three (yes, 3) interceptions. Ruffin McNeil is trying to turn around the defense, and held Texas A&M to seven points. Texas Tech is a dangerous team.
6. Texas (8) (5-2/1-2). Limas Sweed is done. Even with that, Iowa State makes everyone get better.
7. Oklahoma State (9) (4-3/2-1). Oklahoma State has an exceptionally dangerous offense with Zac Robinson, Dontrell Savage, and Adarius Bowman. It's a balanced offense that has the ability to score and control the game via the run or pass. Kansas State has their hands full Saturday.
8. Colorado (4) (4-3/2-1). Colorado got fat and sassy against Baylor, but that's not hard. Sure, they came from behind and took advantage of a youthful Sam Bradford and beat Oklahoma, but Kansas State exposed their weaknesses. The Buffaloes still don't have a great offense (though Hugh Charles is running very well) and their defense, even with several super studs including all everything Jordan Dizon, is susceptible to balanced offenses.
9. Texas A&M (6) (5-2/2-1). The Aggies are a mess. A&M is one dimensional on offense, and their defense is average at best. What's worse, the Aggies have one "easy" game left this year, at Nebraska. How is that for an enlightening statement?
10. Nebraska (10) (4-3/1-2). If the Aggies are a mess, I don't even know how to describe the meltdown in Lincoln. Oklahoma State rolled out to a 38-0 halftime lead. Nebraska has no offense, Nebraska has no defense, and Nebraska now has no athletic director. Former head coach and Congressman Tom Osborn has been brought in to try and shore up the cesspool that is Nebraska football.
11. Baylor (11) (3-4/0-3). The Bears are terrible.
12. Iowa State (12) (1-6/0-3). The Cyclones are worse.
Predictions
(last week 5-1 straight up, 3-3 ats)
Oklahoma at Iowa State (+30) That is a lot of points to lay on the road, but well worth it. OU covers in a cake walk.
Texas Tech at Missouri (-3.5) Texas Tech has an outstanding offense, with many different weapons. Missouri is without leading rusher Tony Temple, which causes them to look more like Texas Tech. These teams aren't mirror images--Texas Tech has superior receivers, Missouri has superior tight ends. Missouri is more battle tested and at home. I expect Missouri to pull out a close one at home, winning by around 4-7 points. Missouri covers a back an forth offensive shootout. Oh, and the over/under is 75. Bet the over.
Texas A&M at Nebraska (-2) I don't think that Texas A&M is a good team. I don't think Nebraska is a good team. Both are riddled with deficiencies. Nebraska cannot stop the run, Texas A&M can run but cannot pass. Nebraska won't have many more opportunities to win, and Texas A&M has looked beyond awful on the road. Nebraska gets a little better this week, wnning a close game over the Aggies, but enough to cover the spread.
Texas at Baylor (+24.5) I hate laying that many points on the road, but Baylor is terrible and Texas is finding themselves. This will be more akin to the Texas game last weekend, where UT won by 53. Texas covers.
Kansas at Colorado (+4) Colorado has two true freshmen on their offensive line, and Kansas has a couple get defensive linemen. I expect the Jayhawks to control the Buffalo running game and force Cody Hawkins into putting the ball in the air. That's not good for Colorado. KU will be able to spread the ball around, running and passing. The game stay close for a half, and Kansas pulls away for a double digit win in the second half. I know that Mark Mangino has never finished above 3-5 in the Big 12, and has never won two road conference game in a season, but things change. This year, throw those old trends out the window. The Jayhawks are for real.
Kansas State at Oklahoma State (-2.5) See earlier analysis. Oklahoma State covers, unless KSU is +2 or better in combined turnovers and returns for touchdowns. OSU doesn't turn the ball over and will negate the big returns by KSU. Oklahoma State wins by around 6.
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